Bowling Green vs. Great Crossing Predictions/Updates (KHSAA Boys' Sweet 16® Championship)

[DragonFire]

Bowling Green (31-6) vs. Great Crossing (34-4)
Series in 2024-25: First Meeting
Series Overall: First Meeting
Series in Sweet 16: First Meeting

* Bowling Green making third appearance in the state finals, losing to Owensboro in 2015 and winning it in 2017 over Cooper.  Great Crossing is making their first appearance in the title game.

* Region 4 has sent a representative to the state title game in three of the past four state title games, and five of the last ten. They have two state titles in those ten years, the last coming from Warren Central, two years ago.

* Great Crossing is the first Region 11 team to reach the title game since Scott County went in back to back years in 2018 & 2019.  Their last state title came in 2016 when Dunbar won.

* Bowling Green is 1-3 all-time at state tournament against 11th Region representatives, but did beat Scott County in 2017 on their way to a state title.

After having to grit their way through two overtime games to open the tournament, Bowling Green finally found daylight in a 73-51 win over South Oldham.  The Purples were not challenged in the game, jumping out quickly, never having less than a six point lead after the midpoint of the second quarter.  That allowed them the luxury of some extra rest during the game, while their opponent had to play an entire game after them.  It wasn't the easiest trip here in terms of game flow, but the Purples have gotten some breaks, and the rest may become a very important one.  The Purples have typically been employing a tight rotation of their six seniors, with Arlando Davis mixed in, and even more sparingly, Ethan Kirkwood.  Each of their starting five has had moments to shine so far. Deuce Bailey hit the game winner in the first game and the game-tying shot to send it to OT against Ashland.  Braylon Banks dropped 16 in the opener while Kadyn Carpenter had 13 in the same game and then 17 against Ashland.  Luke Idlett dropped 26 against Ashland, and Joe Hurt had 26 against South Oldham.  They are the definition of a team giving a team effort and it has brought them to the doorstep of a final.

Great Crossing had an easier time of things in the first two games, at least in terms of the scores.  They got all over Daviess County early en route to a 69-37 win, a game they shot 31/55 from the floor and 7/14 from three in.  Frankly, if you allow 50% three point shooting to Great Crossing, I don't know where you go. Cooper was able to limit the Warhawks much better, holding them to 18/44 shooting from the floor and 1/10 from three, but Great Crossing nevertheless wasn't really pushed in the final quarter, winning 49-36.  The most significant development in that game was an early injury to starting PG LJ Holman that kept him out of the semifinal, and it feels likely will keep him out of the final. Early on, they had trouble with Montgomery County, who managed to knock down a solid amount of threes in the first half.  But in the third quarter, Great Crossing remembered they have Malachi Moreno, and you don't.  The 4* Kentucky signee had 11 points in the third quarter, and slowly the Warhawks pulled away to reach their first state final.  This was their expected result at the start of the year, and aside from the early loss to St. X which sent some shockwaves through the state, they've been unbeaten against Kentucky competition.  Their big two of Dawson and Moreno have been right on point.  Moreno had 21 in the opener, 13 in the win over Cooper, and then 26 against Montgomery County to reach the final.  Dawson had 16 against Daviess, dropped 20 on Cooper, and then had 16 against Montgomery County.  Those are the two guys they'll lean on to try to bring home their first state title.

So it all boils down to this game.  For just over 90 years of basketball, Bowling Green didn't have any appearances in the state final, now they're in their third in a decade and looking for their second state title.  Great Crossing wasn't even built when Bowling Green won that state title - they're in just their sixth season, but in the grant Scott County tradition, are playing for a state title.  Will it be a second title for coach DG Sherrill, another state title for football star Deuce Bailey (his first on the hardwood), or will coach Steve Page bring home the first title for the Warhawks, along with Malachi Moreno cutting down the nets in his future home?

[16thBBall Fan]

Should be a good game. I am sure Great Crossing is favored but that is why they play the games. Bowling Green is not going to back off from anyone. I am looking forward to this one.

[BillNye]

I'm picking Bowling Green. Just because, really. This group has much to be proud of regardless of result tonight.

[theguru]

Just now, BillNye said:

I'm picking Bowling Green. Just because, really. This group has much to be proud of regardless of result tonight.

You always pick Bowling Green!!

[BillNye]

3 minutes ago, theguru said:

You always pick Bowling Green!!

 

[DragonFire]

Highlands is the only representative from the bottom half of the bracket to win in the last six tournaments played with the Saturday doubleheader, that coming in 2021. The team that played earlier on Saturday won the other five. 

[16thBBall Fan]

2 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Highlands is the only representative from the bottom half of the bracket to win in the last six tournaments played with the Saturday doubleheader, that coming in 2021. The team that played earlier on Saturday won the other five. 

Plus I think is was a mistake for Coach Page not to sub out the starters at about the 3-minute mark they were up 17 at that point and never subbed out until after a minute left to play.

[Purple88]

No reason to change horses now!

BG is the underdog but I’m still taking the Purples!

[DragonFire]

26 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

Plus I think is was a mistake for Coach Page not to sub out the starters at about the 3-minute mark they were up 17 at that point and never subbed out until after a minute left to play.

I did find that strange. 

[Purple_Reign]

“For just over 90 years of basketball, Bowling Green didn't have any appearances in the state final, now they're in their third in a decade and looking for their second state title.”

Good stuff @DragonFire. This is tough reading for the “DG can’t coach. Game has passed him by. Needs to step down. Players don’t like him.” Crowd. 

[DragonFire]

31 minutes ago, Purple_Reign said:

“For just over 90 years of basketball, Bowling Green didn't have any appearances in the state final, now they're in their third in a decade and looking for their second state title.”

Good stuff @DragonFire. This is tough reading for the “DG can’t coach. Game has passed him by. Needs to step down. Players don’t like him.” Crowd. 

D.G. almost certainly doesn't get enough appreciation for what he has built.  I think they've been good so long that it has dulled the scope of his accomplishments to some - they just take it for granted.  If you blinked his first run out of existence with Bowling Green and took only his second run, he'd still be the third winningest coach in the history of the program.  His initial run he had a 76.9% win rate, which was top for a coach with the program.  Since he returned? 81.4%.  He's guided the team to eight region titles, a touch over 42% of the titles the school has won, and has guided them to the state semifinals four times when in the entire history before him they'd only gone once, and never to the state final.  I think it's hard to even comprehend how successful it is that in his entire tenure they didn't go to the region finals only three times, and two of those were the first two seasons he was there.

[nikeman49]

Great Crossing by double digits.

[TheBallCoach]

Saw the Warhawks play the Bears of Butler County in Morgantown to start the new year, it was a great game, the Bears were able to play their game and shoot the three ball. Price got his 30 and the team shot 46% from 3 but Butler County fell short 78-71. LJ Holman will be the difference maker in this one similar to the game I’m referencing, he ended with 23 and was a menace defensively. The issue wasn’t the perimeter defensively, the Bears couldn’t stop the Warhawks from getting to the basket, I see a similar sequence of events going to unfold this evening at Rupp. My heart is telling me to take the Purples because regardless of the outcome in this game what an incredible year, but deep down I just know Moreno and company will be too much all around in all facets of the game. If Montgomery County could’ve gave them a challenge earlier this afternoon I may of predicted a different outcome.
 

64-51 Great Crossing 

[DragonFire]

Finally found the stat summaries for the tournament, so some stat notes coming in:

* Great Crossing is leading the tournament in points allowed, at just 40.7 PPG.  Bowling Green currently rates sixth at 58.7 PPG.
* Bowling Green has the edge in scoring, averaging 68.3 PPG during the tourney, fifth among participatns, with Great Crossing coming in at eighth with 62.7 PPG.
* As you might guess given they're the last two standing, the two teams lead in margin of victory.  Great Crossing has won their three games by an average of 22 PPG while Bowling Green has won by 9.67 PPG on average (which is pretty impressive given that two of them required OT).
* Bowling Green averages 4.7 made threes per game, while Great Crossing averages 3.3. Bowling Green is shooting 41.2% from deep while Great Crossing is hitting at only 33.3%.  
* The teams are similar in what they allow from deep - teams have gone 20/74 from three against Bowling Green (27%) while opponents have gone 18/66 (27.3%) against Great Crossing.
* Overall, teams are shooting only 31.8% from the field against Great Crossing - a testament to the difficulty of hitting threes and the near impossibility in beating Moreno inside.  That percent is by far the best defensive effort in the field.  Bowling Green is currently tied for third in the field, allowing only 41.3% shooting against them.
* Both teams are very similar in what they shoot from the floor - Great Crossing is second best in the tournament hitting 54.2% of their shots, while Bowling Green is just under them in third, shooting 54.0% from the floor.
* Only 14 free throws have been attempted by Great Crossing opponents in the tourney, while Purple opponents have had 31 attempts from the line.  
* One of the more consequential stats may be rebounding.  Great Crossing has averaged 35.3 rebounds per game in the tourney to just 27.3 for Bowling Green.  Great Crossing has only allowed 20 rebounds per game while Bowling Green has averaged 31.  
* Diving further into that, Great Crossing has almost as many offensive rebounds (32) as they have allowed defensive rebounds (33).  By comparison, Bowling Green has 16 offensive rebounds to 56 defensive rebounds by opponents.  

 

[TCR]

I think at the end of the day with both teams having played through a gauntlet, aside from the test of will power and depth it will come down to whichever team establishes their brand of basketball. I think it will be more important for Bowling Green to get clicking from three in this one. Should Great Crossing employ a similar type gameplan to what Ashland and others have trying to shut down the three and taking the chance with being beat off the dribble, given how Great Crossing plays it may be harder for Bowling Green to get their signature drives off, just given the tenacity and quickness of a couple of the defenders on Great Crossing. The more they can try to lure Moreno out of the paint, I think the better. Ball movement will be essential. I wouldn't put anything past this Bowling Green team or really any team coached by Sherrill. That man flat out knows how to motivate, is a great strategist, and always has his teams playing good ball at the right time - especially in the 4th which is not an easy region. If I'm in the ball park I believe over the last 21 or so years, it's only been Bowling Green or Warren Central that has emerged from that region with Greenwood sprinkled in a time or two. Which makes it even harder, with all three being in the same district - I think Greenwood was in the top fifteen a couple of seasons ago and missed the regional tournament.

I'll mention a fun fact on each program, and both revolve around EKU. For Bowling Green, Turner Buttry currently plays for EKU and in 2021 had the opportunity to be a part of a Bowling Green team that went 24-3, reaching the Elite Eight. Turner went on to EKU, recently finishing his junior season. He continues his disciplined three points shooting with a 39% career percentage and is heavily relied on for his trusted free throw shooting. Buttry, who shot 93% at Bowling Green, hit a whooping 61 of his 63 free throws for EKU this season including breaking the program record for consecutive free throws made over the course of a season.

As for Great Crossing, their defense in this tournament has been top notch. Would not be surprised at all to see them go to Moreno early and often to get him some looks around the basket, or run through Dawson. I think it will be important to get them off on the right foot in this game. This is a tough program with those two and while those they are talked about a lot and for good reason, I think their supporting cast is very impressive and can do some damage. I think in this particular game, Gage Richardson is one that can provide the shooting spark from outside and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some looks. Brady Orem had a nice game against Montgomery County. It's likely knowing Dawson and Moreno are likely going to get theirs, but the dangerous part about Great Crossing is there is always that other person that can step it up and provide points, like Orem against Montgomery County today. Bowling Green came through big in a couple of OT games, but even with Great Crossing's dominance so far in this tournament they sure had a tough battle in the 11th, winning the last two games in their region by a combined five points - so they have been heavily tested as well.

For Great Crossing, A fun fact on Malachi Moreno. His brother, Michael, was also a star player that in contention for Mr. Basketball. Standing at 6'7, he went on to star at EKU and scored over 1,600 points for his collegiate career. Part of his reason for attending EKU was to be closer to Malachi so he could still cheer him on as he played.

Should be a great game between two gritty basketball teams with plenty of thrilling moments!