1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Murray or Mayfield will play Cath in round 2. 

then in round 3 the RPI kicks in. 
 

So the last 4 from the west will play each other. 
 

Only possible way Catholic plays LCA is of Cath loses to N Hardin and they go lower then Mayfield and Murray then yes there’s a chance Catholic plays LCA in 3rd round. 

Ok I finally understand what you’re saying lol. There’s no way that Mayfield, Murray and OCath can all 3 make it to the 3rd round. Took me a while on that one. The wheels weren’t quit spinning up there haha. So yes more than likely LCA comes to Mayfield round 3 OCath gets a far lesser opponent. Same situation as last year honestly. If Mayfield happened to beat LCA round 3 then they would probably get beechwood at home just like last year after more than likely passing them in the RPI over these last 3 weeks of the season (assuming they beat Murray in 2 weeks.) Thanks for bearing with me.

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Murray or Mayfield will play Cath in round 2. 

then in round 3 the RPI kicks in. 
 

So the last 4 from the west will play each other. 
 

Only possible way Catholic plays LCA is of Cath loses to N Hardin and they go lower then Mayfield and Murray then yes there’s a chance Catholic plays LCA in 3rd round. 

Ok I finally understand what you’re saying lol. There’s no way that Mayfield, Murray and OCath can all 3 make it to the 3rd round. Took me a while on that one. The wheels weren’t quit spinning up there haha. So yes more than likely LCA comes to Mayfield round 3 OCath gets a far lesser opponent. Same situation as last year honestly. If Mayfield happened to beat LCA round 3 then they would probably get beechwood at home just like last year after more than likely passing them in the RPI over these last 3 weeks of the season (assuming they beat Murray in 2 weeks.) Thanks for bearing with me.

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Murray or Mayfield will play Cath in round 2. 

then in round 3 the RPI kicks in. 
 

So the last 4 from the west will play each other. 
 

Only possible way Catholic plays LCA is of Cath loses to N Hardin and they go lower then Mayfield and Murray then yes there’s a chance Catholic plays LCA in 3rd round. 

Ok I finally understand what you’re saying lol. There’s no way that Mayfield, Murray and OCath can all 3 make it to the 3rd round. Took me a while on that one. The wheels weren’t quit spinning up there haha. So yes more than likely LCA comes to Mayfield round 3 OCath gets a far lesser opponent. Same situation as last year honestly. If Mayfield happened to beat LCA round 3 then they would probably get beechwood at home just like last year after more than likely passing them in the RPI over these last 3 weeks of the season (assuming they beat Murray in 2 weeks.) Thanks for bearing with me.

1 hour ago, 1andDone said:

As is right now LCA will play Ownesboro Catholic 3rd round.  That could change if Mayfield were to lose to Murray in regular season.  That would give Mayfield 3 losses making it highly questionable who finishes 2, 3, and 4 in the west.  Somerset has no effect on the west since they are in the east.   Somerset is battling out with Beechwood, Prestonsburg, and Betsy Lane.

In round 3 west using expected RPI:

1. O Cath (if they beat Murray or Mayfield in round 2) 

2. Murray or Mayfield

3. LCA

4. Probably winner of District 3 (my guess is Monroe County)

There is almost no chance in my opinion that LCA faces O Cath in round 3. All the possible teams that will be the fourth team in the west are far below the others in RPI. That makes LCA almost certainly the 3 seed setting up a round 3 game versus Murray or Mayfield. Now if O Cath gets upset in round 2, a whole 'nother bit of thinkin' will need to happen.

Bump.

Posted this in another thread and posting it in this thread also since this is where we are tracking 2A RPI.

I just ran some numbers. I don't think Mayfield can get in front of Beechwood. Even if Mayfield wins out, their WP will be lower than Beechwood's. Then it will come down to OWP and OOWP. I think OWP will be close to where it is currently for both teams. OOWP = who knows? Taking a wild guess, I think Beechwood will stay in front of Mayfield.

Either Mayfield or Murray are getting a loss because they play each other. That is zero points in RPI. If Murray beats Mayfield, Beechwood should stay well in front of Mayfield. So win or lose by Mayfield in the Murray game, I think Beechwood will stay ahead of them in RPI. Just a guess because no way to calculate OOWP 3 weeks out.

Murray definitely can get in front of Beechwood. Win out and they will be #2 in RPI. Even if they lose to Mayfield, if they can beat Madisonville-North Hopkins in their final game, they might get in front of Beechwood. My guess here is Murray finishes ahead of Beechwood if they beat either Mayfield or MNH. If they beat both, definitely in front of Beechwood.

Just saw 10/19 RPI that had Beechwood falling to #4.  Upcoming game against #7 Bracken Co. might not do enough (provided they win) to get them out of that seeding.

At this point, it stinks Beechwood may have to travel in the post playoff because of a flawed RPI system and there may not be a better solution so let’s roll with it!  

IMO, I hope Beechwood has the opportunity to go down the list and play as many of top teams in 2A getting to the State Championship (like Mayfield had todo last year) and if they have opportunity at Kroger and win, then get!  If those lose early then they don't deserve to be there.  Like someone said last year, timing is everything in the playoffs, staying healthy and having little bit of luck goes along way too.

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	8	-	0			8	1.38248	.50853	.59367	.83996
2	Mayfield	2A	1	5	-	2			7	.97427	.58447	.63415	.73580
3	Murray	2A	1	7	-	1			8	1.18631	.41153	.57919	.73300
4	Beechwood	2A	5	8	-	1			9	1.17101	.43293	.56374	.73050
5	Lexington Christian	2A	4	6	-	2			8	.78748	.59931	.55509	.65190
6	Prestonsburg	2A	7	8	-	0			8	1.01874	.41886	.43163	.63265
7	Bracken County	2A	5	7	-	1			8	.89900	.39746	.54655	.61773
8	Somerset	2A	6	5	-	3			8	.74581	.53364	.53766	.60911
9	Washington County	2A	4	7	-	2			9	.88516	.35655	.47666	.57759
10	Owen County	2A	5	6	-	3			9	.63774	.52317	.50948	.55916
11	Crittenden County	2A	1	3	-	5			8	.47756	.67002	.52318	.55861
12	Edmonson County	2A	2	4	-	4			8	.63018	.54575	.47286	.55343
13	Martin County	2A	7	5	-	3			8	.64374	.51268	.47943	.54857
14	Betsy Layne	2A	8	6	-	2			8	.76874	.36387	.47198	.53801
15	Fort Campbell	2A	2	4	-	3			7	.64582	.41747	.50150	.52260
16	Caldwell County	2A	1	2	-	6			8	.36234	.63859	.55240	.51605
17	Knott County Central	2A	7	6	-	2			8	.65853	.39924	.43998	.50222
18	Leslie County	2A	6	5	-	3			8	.64374	.33986	.50713	.49640
19	Walton-Verona	2A	5	3	-	5			8	.41527	.55965	.51214	.49486
20	Breathitt County	2A	6	3	-	5			8	.39374	.56178	.50707	.48655
21	Metcalfe County	2A	3	3	-	5			8	.43401	.51760	.49959	.48294
22	WEB DuBois	2A	4	3	-	5			8	.50888	.41582	.49290	.47151
23	Monroe County	2A	3	3	-	5			8	.37500	.52417	.50474	.46613
24	Pike County Central	2A	8	4	-	4			8	.51874	.37788	.45220	.44948
25	Todd County Central	2A	2	2	-	6			8	.31509	.51265	.46610	.42954
26	Shelby Valley	2A	8	2	-	6			8	.25000	.54351	.47395	.41992
27	Clinton County	2A	3	3	-	5			8	.31402	.45741	.44200	.40260
28	Carroll County	2A	5	0	-	9			9	.00000	.69797	.50713	.39643
29	Shawnee	2A	4	2	-	6			8	.29027	.44766	.46049	.39642
30	Green County	2A	3	2	-	6			8	.28748	.38055	.48963	.38069
31	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	6			8	.21951	.42249	.42110	.35103
32	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	7			8	.12500	.44812	.48849	.34714
33	Danville	2A	6	0	-	8			8	.00000	.59063	.44784	.34107
34	Floyd Central	2A	7	0	-	8			8	.00000	.50819	.40132	.29826
35	Fort Knox	2A	4	0	-	9			9	.00000	.47018	.42265	.29136

If I was a Beechwood fan I would believe they can beat anybody in 2A on the road this year except for maybe..and I would love to see a rematch of them and Mayfield again if Mayfield can beat Murray...

11 hours ago, Oldercoach said:

Just saw 10/19 RPI that had Beechwood falling to #4.  Upcoming game against #7 Bracken Co. might not do enough (provided they win) to get them out of that seeding.

I thought someone said Beechwood had a chance to get the 2 seed? 

6 hours ago, Jason Bucklen said:

I thought someone said Beechwood had a chance to get the 2 seed? 

Probably me. The OWP is killing Beechwood. Playing winless Carroll County dropped Beechwood more than I thought it would because of the impact it had on Beechwood's OWP. Beechwood will get some of that OWP back this week facing 7-1 Bracken County. But Beechwood's opponents are going to lose more than they win the next two weeks so that OWP is going to drop back a little.

A win over Bracken County will get Beechwood back to #3 and they could stay there, but unless some of Beechwood's opponents win some games in major upsets Beechwood's OWP is probably going to keep them out of #2. The one scenario where Beechwood might have a chance to get to #2 is Murray beats Mayfield and then Murray loses their final game.

I will give Beechwood fans who do not want to drive to Mayfield or Murray some good news and something to hope for if you want a semifinal at home. Forget about RPI. The loser of Murray / Mayfield is going to face Owensboro Catholic in round 2. The winner of Mayfield / Murray is going to face Lexington Christian in round 3. If O Cath and LCA win those games and get to the final four, then Beechwood will be hosting LCA in the semifinals.

 

 

4 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Probably me. The OWP is killing Beechwood. Playing winless Carroll County dropped Beechwood more than I thought it would because of the impact it had on Beechwood's OWP. Beechwood will get some of that OWP back this week facing 7-1 Bracken County. But Beechwood's opponents are going to lose more than they win the next two weeks so that OWP is going to drop back a little.

A win over Bracken County will get Beechwood back to #3 and they could stay there, but unless some of Beechwood's opponents win some games in major upsets Beechwood's OWP is probably going to keep them out of #2. The one scenario where Beechwood might have a chance to get to #2 is Murray beats Mayfield and then Murray loses their final game.

I will give Beechwood fans who do not want to drive to Mayfield or Murray some good news and something to hope for if you want a semifinal at home. Forget about RPI. The loser of Murray / Mayfield is going to face Owensboro Catholic in round 2. The winner of Mayfield / Murray is going to face Lexington Christian in round 3. If O Cath and LCA win those games and get to the final four, then Beechwood will be hosting LCA in the semifinals.

 

 

Did you just successfully put together the 2A jig-saw puzzle?

I would say that round 2 game btw OCath and Murray/Mayfield will be highly watched in the state!!

11 hours ago, Subway5024 said:

I would say that round 2 game btw OCath and Murray/Mayfield will be highly watched in the state!!

That will be a tough game for Catholic. Then again... they could put a running clock on either team.