1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	7	-	0			7	1.43712	.49239	.62584	.86308
2	Beechwood	2A	5	7	-	1			8	1.19239	.46197	.58277	.75386
3	Murray	2A	1	6	-	1			7	1.21292	.41992	.57412	.74373
4	Mayfield	2A	1	4	-	2			6	.96998	.55051	.63721	.72333
5	Prestonsburg	2A	7	7	-	0			7	1.02141	.50989	.41299	.65985
6	Lexington Christian	2A	4	5	-	2			7	.75711	.59901	.55819	.64210
7	Somerset	2A	6	4	-	3			7	.70950	.63838	.50928	.62454
8	Washington County	2A	4	6	-	2			8	.87081	.43883	.48546	.60401
9	Betsy Layne	2A	8	6	-	1			7	.87856	.42487	.47360	.59828
10	Bracken County	2A	5	6	-	1			7	.88457	.34858	.54926	.59638
11	Owen County	2A	5	6	-	2			8	.71746	.48528	.55387	.58712
12	Crittenden County	2A	1	3	-	4			7	.54579	.61264	.52168	.56195
13	Edmonson County	2A	2	4	-	3			7	.72020	.43856	.49066	.55276
14	Knott County Central	2A	7	6	-	1			7	.75261	.38175	.44804	.53144
15	Leslie County	2A	6	5	-	2			7	.73570	.32788	.51071	.52547
16	Martin County	2A	7	4	-	3			7	.59284	.47061	.48621	.51807
17	Fort Campbell	2A	2	3	-	3			6	.58679	.42846	.47498	.49783
18	Caldwell County	2A	1	2	-	5			7	.41411	.50631	.58399	.49734
19	Walton-Verona	2A	5	2	-	5			7	.33174	.62960	.50819	.48892
20	WEB DuBois	2A	4	3	-	4			7	.58157	.36040	.49144	.47712
21	Metcalfe County	2A	3	2	-	5			7	.35315	.53508	.49687	.45994
22	Monroe County	2A	3	2	-	5			7	.28571	.53673	.55283	.45370
23	Breathitt County	2A	6	2	-	5			7	.30713	.51654	.51198	.44188
24	Todd County Central	2A	2	2	-	5			7	.36010	.47834	.48098	.43775
25	Clinton County	2A	3	3	-	4			7	.35888	.49124	.41641	.42247
26	Pike County Central	2A	8	3	-	4			7	.44999	.34608	.44264	.41141
27	Green County	2A	3	2	-	5			7	.32854	.39580	.51448	.40786
28	Shawnee	2A	4	2	-	6			8	.29027	.43937	.47668	.39838
29	Carroll County	2A	5	0	-	8			8	.00000	.64601	.50397	.37729
30	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	5			7	.25087	.43116	.45311	.37464
31	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	6			7	.14286	.47981	.48782	.36428
32	Shelby Valley	2A	8	1	-	6			7	.14286	.45325	.47511	.35117
33	Danville	2A	6	0	-	7			7	.00000	.57403	.44058	.33308
34	Floyd Central	2A	7	0	-	7			7	.00000	.46234	.40022	.28188
35	Fort Knox	2A	4	0	-	8			8	.00000	.42433	.42115	.27486

Since the  loss to Cov Cath, it's interesting how Beechwood keeps going backwards in total points week after week and they keep winning their games.  Yes, the teams they played earlier in the season seem to keep losing so that doesn’t help them, is that right?

Are the larger teams in the south particularly south west that much better than the 4A thru 6A teams in Northern Kentucky?  No shot at my Norther Kentucky teams because that’s who I support more being from the area, it just looks like the math doesn’t add up with the RPI.

2 hours ago, The_Bull44 said:

Since the  loss to Cov Cath, it's interesting how Beechwood keeps going backwards in total points week after week and they keep winning their games.  Yes, the teams they played earlier in the season seem to keep losing so that doesn’t help them, is that right?

Are the larger teams in the south particularly south west that much better than the 4A thru 6A teams in Northern Kentucky?  No shot at my Norther Kentucky teams because that’s who I support more being from the area, it just looks like the math doesn’t add up with the RPI.

I would agree on your first observation.  On your second, I would resoundingly agree, but many of my Ryle friends will feel disrespected.

Week before Covington Catholic game....................  WP          OWP     OOWP     RPI

Beechwood

2A

5

4

-

0

4

1.63478

.50900

.79541

.98895

Loss to Covington Catholic

Beechwood

2A

5

4

-

1

5

1.30782

.45552

.70748

.82941

Beat Gallatin County

Beechwood

2A

5

5

-

1

6

1.25652

.46151

.60544

.78294

Beat Walton Verona

Beechwood

2A

5

6

-

1

7

1.21987

.41774

.62151

.75962

Beat Owen County

Beechwood

2A

5

7

-

1

8

1.19239

.46197

.58277

.75386

It isn't the opponents' winning percentage that is dropping Beechwood's RPI. That number is higher this week than it was after the CCH loss. The winning percentage is the main culprit. Beechwood got bonus points for wins against higher class teams and they get no bonus points for beating 2A teams so even with wins, the winning percentage is pulling back to 1 which is the winning value of beating a 2A team. The winning value of beating Campbell County was 1.75, almost twice the value. Beechwood's winning percentage should drop each of the next two weeks as they play but not as much as it get's closer to 1. I'll take a try at this and say next week, Beechwood's WP will be 1.17101 and after game 10 it will be 1.15391.

I haven't run numbers but I believe for Beechwood to end up #2 in RPI, they need the winner of the Mayfield/Murray game to lose their final game of the season. Murray plays a 5A school their last game and Mayfield plays a 6A school. In fact, I would say Beechwood fans need to hope Murray beats Mayfield because Mayfield is going to win their final game against 6A Christian County and that will be a big boost to their RPI. There is a good chance Murray loses its last game against a good 5A Madisonville-North Hopkins and a loss is zero points in KHSAA RPI.

 

 

Watch the Somerset vs. Glasgow game and the LCA vs. Raceland. Could Somerset jump LCA? 

Is there a chance that if Mayfield beats Murray but Murray beats Madisonville then Murray could still finish above LCA in RPI and therefore LCA would travel to OCath in the third round while Mayfield and Murray have a rematch in the third round?

51 minutes ago, Astro Domino said:

Is there a chance that if Mayfield beats Murray but Murray beats Madisonville then Murray could still finish above LCA in RPI and therefore LCA would travel to OCath in the third round while Mayfield and Murray have a rematch in the third round?

Catholic would have to lose to North Hardin and drop below Mayfield/Murray winner in the RPI for them to see LCA in the 3rd round. That’s not going to happen. 
 

4 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

Catholic would have to lose to North Hardin and drop below Mayfield/Murray winner in the RPI for them to see LCA in the 3rd round. That’s not going to happen. 
 

How is that? In the third round the state is still split in half, east and west. If the 4 teams left in the west are OCath, Mayfield, Murray and LCA and they are ranked in that order RPI-wise then LCA would go to OCath in the third round.

42 minutes ago, Astro Domino said:

How is that? In the third round the state is still split in half, east and west. If the 4 teams left in the west are OCath, Mayfield, Murray and LCA and they are ranked in that order RPI-wise then LCA would go to OCath in the third round.

Catholic has to lose to North Hardin. 

Murray/Mayfield winner

Catholic

Metcalfe/Monroe/Green Co (Whoever wins)

RPI 1 vs RPI 4

RPI 2 vs RPI 3

 

 

 

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Catholic has to lose to North Hardin. 

Murray/Mayfield winner

Catholic

Metcalfe/Monroe/Green Co (Whoever wins)

RPI 1 vs RPI 4

RPI 2 vs RPI 3

 

 

 

So LCA isn’t in the west anymore? They were last year.

3 hours ago, Astro Domino said:

How is that? In the third round the state is still split in half, east and west. If the 4 teams left in the west are OCath, Mayfield, Murray and LCA and they are ranked in that order RPI-wise then LCA would go to OCath in the third round.

Murray or Mayfield will play Cath in round 2. 

then in round 3 the RPI kicks in. 
 

So the last 4 from the west will play each other. 
 

Only possible way Catholic plays LCA is of Cath loses to N Hardin and they go lower then Mayfield and Murray then yes there’s a chance Catholic plays LCA in 3rd round. 

17 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Week before Covington Catholic game....................  WP          OWP     OOWP     RPI

Beechwood

2A

5

4

-

0

4

1.63478

.50900

.79541

.98895

Loss to Covington Catholic

Beechwood

2A

5

4

-

1

5

1.30782

.45552

.70748

.82941

Beat Gallatin County

Beechwood

2A

5

5

-

1

6

1.25652

.46151

.60544

.78294

Beat Walton Verona

Beechwood

2A

5

6

-

1

7

1.21987

.41774

.62151

.75962

Beat Owen County

Beechwood

2A

5

7

-

1

8

1.19239

.46197

.58277

.75386

It isn't the opponents' winning percentage that is dropping Beechwood's RPI. That number is higher this week than it was after the CCH loss. The winning percentage is the main culprit. Beechwood got bonus points for wins against higher class teams and they get no bonus points for beating 2A teams so even with wins, the winning percentage is pulling back to 1 which is the winning value of beating a 2A team. The winning value of beating Campbell County was 1.75, almost twice the value. Beechwood's winning percentage should drop each of the next two weeks as they play but not as much as it get's closer to 1. I'll take a try at this and say next week, Beechwood's WP will be 1.17101 and after game 10 it will be 1.15391.

I haven't run numbers but I believe for Beechwood to end up #2 in RPI, they need the winner of the Mayfield/Murray game to lose their final game of the season. Murray plays a 5A school their last game and Mayfield plays a 6A school. In fact, I would say Beechwood fans need to hope Murray beats Mayfield because Mayfield is going to win their final game against 6A Christian County and that will be a big boost to their RPI. There is a good chance Murray loses its last game against a good 5A Madisonville-North Hopkins and a loss is zero points in KHSAA RPI.

 

 

So 2A schools with fewer teams in their district have the opportunity to earn more RPI points within a season when playing a 3A to 6A size school and win?  How long has KHSAA let this go on for now?

As is right now LCA will play Ownesboro Catholic 3rd round.  That could change if Mayfield were to lose to Murray in regular season.  That would give Mayfield 3 losses making it highly questionable who finishes 2, 3, and 4 in the west.  Somerset has no effect on the west since they are in the east.   Somerset is battling out with Beechwood, Prestonsburg, and Betsy Lane.

23 minutes ago, The_Bull44 said:

So 2A schools with fewer teams in their district have the opportunity to earn more RPI points within a season when playing a 3A to 6A size school and win?  How long has KHSAA let this go on for now?

Realignment for 2025 for 2A really solves little because of geography (?).  40 teams make up 8 Districts and have been broken into 2 Districts with 4 teams; 4 Districts with 5 teams; and 2 Districts with 6 teams. Next year Mayfield’s District is disadvantaged to have 6 teams just as Beechwood’s.  

1 hour ago, The_Bull44 said:

So 2A schools with fewer teams in their district have the opportunity to earn more RPI points within a season when playing a 3A to 6A size school and win?  How long has KHSAA let this go on for now?

Correct.

Beechwood has proposed that teams  be allowed to drop two games from RPI (obviously it would have to be wins, not losses). This would allow teams to mitigate being in a 5 or 6 team district while others in their class are in 4 team districts.