Covington Catholic at Dixie Heights Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

The Battle of Colonel Highway. Colonels versus Colonels. 1-2 versus 1-2. Dixie Heights is coming off a disappointing 41-20 loss to Beechwoood last week while Covington Catholic is trying to build from their 42-3 shellacking of Simon Kenton on Friday.

The Red Colonels' one victory came in Week 2 with a commanding 66-19 win over Hughes (OH) while they have a 50-35 loss to Simon Kenton and their loss to Beechwoood. The Blue Colonels had their first win of the season on Friday following a 30-14 loss to Ryle in Week 1 and a 32-22 loss to Highlands in Week 2.

This season sees Dixie's Armani Gregg shifted from QB to RB, and he has already racked up 428 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. He had an impressive 213 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1 against Simon Kenton, and continues to be the bell cow in Edgewood. Covington Catholic has Cash Harney as a two-way starter at quarterback and safety. He leads Cov Cath in rushing yards with 373 and 3 touchdowns, while Dylan Gaiser has moved into their starting RB position with 282 yards and 3 touchdowns. This past week Andrew Bessler made a more notable presence in the offensive backfield for the Blue Colonels, averaging over 6 yards per carry and scoring twice for Cov Cath.

On defense, Dixie has given up 110 points and 1325 yards (442 per game) while Cov Cath has given up 65 points and 886 yards (295 per game).

Covington Catholic has won the last 17-straight games over Dixie Heights, with Dixie's last win dating back to September 7, 2007. At 17 years past, the vast majority of the participants in this Friday's game have not lived to see a Dixie Heights football win over Covington Catholic.

Who wins the Battle of Colonel Highway on Friday? What predictions do you have?

[Mr. Sixer]

3 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

The Battle of Colonel Highway. Colonels versus Colonels. 1-2 versus 1-2. Dixie Heights is coming off a disappointing 41-20 loss to Beechwoood last week while Covington Catholic is trying to build from their 42-3 shellacking of Simon Kenton on Friday.

The Red Colonels' one victory came in Week 2 with a commanding 66-19 win over Taft (OH) while they have a 50-35 loss to Simon Kenton and their loss to Beechwoood. The Blue Colonels had their first win of the season on Friday following a 30-14 loss to Ryle in Week 1 and a 32-22 loss to Highlands in Week 2.

This season sees Dixie's Armani Gregg shifted from QB to RB, and he has already racked up 428 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. He had an impressive 213 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1 against Simon Kenton, and continues to be the bell cow in Edgewood. Covington Catholic has Cash Harney as a two-way starter at quarterback and safety. He leads Cov Cath in rushing yards with 373 and 3 touchdowns, while Dylan Gaiser has moved into their starting RB position with 282 yards and 3 touchdowns. This past week Andrew Bessler made a more notable presence in the offensive backfield for the Blue Colonels, averaging over 6 yards per carry and scoring twice for Cov Cath.

On defense, Dixie has given up 110 points and 1325 yards (442 per game) while Cov Cath has given up 65 points and 886 yards (295 per game).

Covington Catholic has won the last 17-straight games over Dixie Heights, with Dixie's last win dating back to September 7, 2007. At 17 years past, the vast majority of the participants in this Friday's game have not lived to see a Dixie Heights football win over Covington Catholic.

Who wins the Battle of Colonel Highway on Friday? What predictions do you have?

Good summary but I believe Dixie beat Hughes (OH) 66-19 and not Taft (OH). 

[Oldercoach]

This could be a real slobber-knocker.  Dixie insisted on running out passes to Greg on the short side of the field giving BW the OB defender.  Announcers kept correctly pointing out that Greg could have taken it to the house if he had gotten the ball on the wide side.  After film sessions coaches and QB will be kicking themselves.  They are better than they played at BW and CovCath might not be as strong as they looked against Camels who lost their QB1 the previous week.  CovCath by 12.

[TheConch]

Colonels win this one. 

[hrcarrier]

10 hours ago, Mr. Sixer said:

Good summary but I believe Dixie beat Hughes (OH) 66-19 and not Taft (OH). 

Correct, it was Hughes that Dixie beat.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

13 hours ago, Mr. Sixer said:

Good summary but I believe Dixie beat Hughes (OH) 66-19 and not Taft (OH). 

2 hours ago, hrcarrier said:

Correct, it was Hughes that Dixie beat.

Thanks for catching that. Got it corrected in the original post.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Complete Series Results:
1975 Dixie (Browning) 49 Cov Cath (Ray) 6
1976 Dixie (Browning) 20 Cov Cath (Ray) 6
1977 Cov Cath (Ray) 19 Dixie (Cook) 14
1978 Cov Cath (Ray) 19 Dixie (Burnett) 6
1979 Cov Cath (Ray) 20 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1980 Cov Cath (Ray) 26 Dixie (Burnett) 21
1981 Cov Cath (Ray) 23 Dixie (Burnett) 20
1982 Cov Cath (Ray) 44 Dixie (Burnett) 8
1983 Cov Cath (Ray) 28 Dixie (Burnett) 7
1984 Cov Cath (Ray) 24 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1985 Cov Cath (Ray) 21 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1986 Cov Cath (Ray) 16 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1987 Cov Cath (Ray) 18 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1988 Cov Cath (Ray) 10 Dixie (Burnett) 7
1989 Cov Cath (Ray) 10 Dixie (Burnett) 7 (OT)
1990 Cov Cath (Ray) 14 Dixie (Burnett) 0
1991 Cov Cath (Ray) 20 Dixie (Browning) 13
1992 Cov Cath (Ray) 47 Dixie (Browning) 0
1993 Cov Cath (Ray) 34 Dixie (Browning) 7
1994 Cov Cath (Ray) 20 Dixie (Browning) 6
1995 Cov Cath (Ray) 21 Dixie (Spritzky) 14 (OT)
1996 Cov Cath (Ray) 34 Dixie (Spritzky) 0
1997 Cov Cath (Ray) 24 Dixie (Spritzky) 13
1998 Cov Cath (Ray) 14 Dixie (Spritzky) 3
1999 Dixie (Spritzky) 41 Cov Cath (Ray) 7
2000 Cov Cath (Ray) 34 Dixie (Spritzky) 25
2001 Cov Cath (Ray) 34 Dixie (Spritzky) 21
2002 Dixie (Spritzky) 28 Cov Cath (Ray) 0
2003 Dixie (Spritzky) 24 Cov Cath (Ray) 23
2004 Dixie (Spritzky) 14 Cov Cath (Ray) 6
2005 Cov Cath (Rodenberg) 37 Dixie (Spritzky) 3
2006 Cov Cath (Rodenberg) 28 Dixie (Spritzky) 7
2007 Dixie (Spritzky) 44 Cov Cath (Brossart) 28        
2007* Cov Cath (Brossart) 24 Dixie (Spritzky) 7
2008 Cov Cath (Brossart) 49 Dixie (Spritzky) 47           
2009 Cov Cath (Wirth) 39 Dixie (Spritzky) 34           
2010 Cov Cath (Wirth) 40 Dixie (Spritzky) 36           
2011 Cov Cath (Wirth) 56 Dixie (Spritzky) 35           
2012 Cov Cath (Wirth) 54 Dixie (Brossart) 0           
2013 Cov Cath (Wirth) 21 Dixie (Brossart) 13           
2014 Cov Cath (Wirth) 41 Dixie (Brossart) 7           
2015 Cov Cath (Eviston) 42 Dixie (Brossart) 14           
2016 Cov Cath (Eviston) 35 Dixie (Brossart) 12           
2017 Cov Cath (Eviston) 49 Dixie (Brossart) 6           
2018 Cov Cath (Eviston) 50 Dixie (Brossart) 8           
2019 Cov Cath (Eviston) 45 Dixie (Brossart) 0           
2020 Cov Cath (Eviston) 21 Dixie (Brossart) 14           
2021 Cov Cath (Eviston) 24 Dixie (Brossart) 8           
2022 Cov Cath (Eviston) 47 Dixie (Burke) 14
2023 Cov Cath (Eviston) 31 Dixie (Burke) 24

* Playoffs

[New Colonel]

Cov Cath should win as Dixie's coaching staff can't get out of their own way.  I don't like being the negative guy, but it is extremely apparent that Burke and his staff are in WAY over their head.  The Red Colonels are not improving under him.  To say their schemes and in game adjustments are poor would be complimentary.  

The state of football in all 3 Kenton County schools is painfully sad.  

 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

One factor that plays into things this week is that Cov Cath is the "big rival" during the regular season for three different programs in northern Kentucky: Highlands, Beechwood, and Dixie Heights. It may not make all the difference in the world, but one thing Cov Cath can count on in all three of those games is facing the A-game of their A-game when it comes to performance from their opponent.

Cov Cath won 42-3 over Simon Kenton, who won 50-35 over Dixie Heights. I think that gives a fairly strong hint as to the outcome of the game on Friday.

Week 1 results can oftentimes be a throwaway when trying to size up a team's overall product for a season, and I would assume Dixie has zeroed in on some of the things they need to correct after the last couple-few weeks of football, but Cov Cath has certainly been doing the same thing on their end. I didn't watch the Simon Kenton vs. Dixie Heights game to have much of an opinion on how Simon Kenton looked in Week 1 versus Week 3, but taking the Pioneer fans at their word and assuming Simon Kenton is a good team that just laid an egg against Cov Cath, I think that still leaves the Blue Colonels favored to beat the Red Colonels by 3+ touchdowns on Friday.

[barrel]

8 hours ago, New Colonel said:

Cov Cath should win as Dixie's coaching staff can't get out of their own way.  I don't like being the negative guy, but it is extremely apparent that Burke and his staff are in WAY over their head.  The Red Colonels are not improving under him.  To say their schemes and in game adjustments are poor would be complimentary.  

The state of football in all 3 Kenton County schools is painfully sad.  

 

I’ve seen you post comments like this a number of times. How are you measuring improvement over 25 games or so?

[New Colonel]

2 hours ago, barrel said:

I’ve seen you post comments like this a number of times. How are you measuring improvement over 25 games or so?

That's a fair question, and I appreciate it.

First, it's not all about wins and losses with me....sure we all like to win, but for me, high school football is way more than that..... it's about building a community from your varsity all the way down to your youth programs.  Burke is simply not doing that.  I know there is some issues with between Burke and the coaches at Turkey Foot (middle school that feeds into Dixie).  Burke has done a decent job with building a relationship with the Dixie Youth Colonels football from what I hear this year (but his son started playing this season for them, so that's expected).  HOWEVER, Dixie Heights is in a very unique position with youth feeders...... due to weird maps with the NKYFL not being based on schools, there are 4 youth programs that have players that feed into Dixie Heights..... Dixie Youth, Spartans, Erlanger Lions, and Ludlow Youth.  Depending on where those players live, they all wind up at Dixie.  There has been zero attempt to try to reach out to the latter 3 youth programs and build any sort of relationship.  Make those kids fall in love with Dixie at a young age to stop your players from going to Cov Cath or becoming a tuition student at Beechwood.

Second, are the schemes.  They are just not sound.  Good coaches adapt their schemes to fit their personnel, no the other way around.  Burke and his staff are determined to try to make these unsound schemes work.  On offense, it works really well when you are playing bad teams.  When you are playing teams that are good, the flaws are exposed on both fronts.  They can't move the ball and score (unless it's in garbage time).  The defense gets absolutely shredded against anyone with even a mediocre passing game.  And they don't make any adjustments on either side of the ball during games.  A perfect example is the game against Beechwood.  No attempt was made to slow down Erdman from Beechwood.  Dixie insisted on covering the fastest kid in the state 1 on 1 the entire game.  

Third issue for me after watching last year and this year is are your players performing better on the field?  So far it's a no.  There are too many penalties involving discipline, there are glaring issues regarding conditioning, and nobody has really taken that next step.  This is sad when you have 2 players with small college offers so far and a QB that is getting lots of interest from college coaches.  When you have what is 3 players on offense that can play at the next level, you really shouldn't be struggling at all on that side of the ball.  Even more maddening is these 3 are not on the field at the same time on every single play of offense...... make it make sense.

Next, is how the team prepares.  Teams wanting to improve should schedule difficult scrimmages and non-district games.  Burke decided to schedule scrimmages against some of the worst teams in the entire tri-state area and scheduled Hughes for 2 years.  Why?  I guess to make you and the kids have a false sense of how good you are.  That's hurting your program and not improving it. But, I guess you got that little ego boost in your scrimmages and last week when you put up 60 against a horrendous Hughes team.  And I guess you will get it again when you play Boone County.  

Lastly, is the game management.  Every week there are decisions made by this staff that puts this team into deeper holes.  It's a coach's job to help put the team in better positions to win, not put them in a worse situation.  The players should not have to overcome in game obstacles put forth by their own coach to hopefully achieve a victory. 

Look, am I expecting Dixie to world beaters?  No.  I understand the reality of their situation, especially being located so close to 2 perennial powerhouses in Beechwood and Cov Cath. I also understand the difficulty of their district.  But should they have a winning season more often than not?  Without question. Dixie should beat Conner, Boone County, and Scott.  4-6, with your only wins coming against awful teams is not success, no matter who the coach is.

[barrel]

1 hour ago, New Colonel said:

That's a fair question, and I appreciate it.

First, it's not all about wins and losses with me....sure we all like to win, but for me, high school football is way more than that..... it's about building a community from your varsity all the way down to your youth programs.  Burke is simply not doing that.  I know there is some issues with between Burke and the coaches at Turkey Foot (middle school that feeds into Dixie).  Burke has done a decent job with building a relationship with the Dixie Youth Colonels football from what I hear this year (but his son started playing this season for them, so that's expected).  HOWEVER, Dixie Heights is in a very unique position with youth feeders...... due to weird maps with the NKYFL not being based on schools, there are 4 youth programs that have players that feed into Dixie Heights..... Dixie Youth, Spartans, Erlanger Lions, and Ludlow Youth.  Depending on where those players live, they all wind up at Dixie.  There has been zero attempt to try to reach out to the latter 3 youth programs and build any sort of relationship.  Make those kids fall in love with Dixie at a young age to stop your players from going to Cov Cath or becoming a tuition student at Beechwood.

Second, are the schemes.  They are just not sound.  Good coaches adapt their schemes to fit their personnel, no the other way around.  Burke and his staff are determined to try to make these unsound schemes work.  On offense, it works really well when you are playing bad teams.  When you are playing teams that are good, the flaws are exposed on both fronts.  They can't move the ball and score (unless it's in garbage time).  The defense gets absolutely shredded against anyone with even a mediocre passing game.  And they don't make any adjustments on either side of the ball during games.  A perfect example is the game against Beechwood.  No attempt was made to slow down Erdman from Beechwood.  Dixie insisted on covering the fastest kid in the state 1 on 1 the entire game.  

Third issue for me after watching last year and this year is are your players performing better on the field?  So far it's a no.  There are too many penalties involving discipline, there are glaring issues regarding conditioning, and nobody has really taken that next step.  This is sad when you have 2 players with small college offers so far and a QB that is getting lots of interest from college coaches.  When you have what is 3 players on offense that can play at the next level, you really shouldn't be struggling at all on that side of the ball.  Even more maddening is these 3 are not on the field at the same time on every single play of offense...... make it make sense.

Next, is how the team prepares.  Teams wanting to improve should schedule difficult scrimmages and non-district games.  Burke decided to schedule scrimmages against some of the worst teams in the entire tri-state area and scheduled Hughes for 2 years.  Why?  I guess to make you and the kids have a false sense of how good you are.  That's hurting your program and not improving it. But, I guess you got that little ego boost in your scrimmages and last week when you put up 60 against a horrendous Hughes team.  And I guess you will get it again when you play Boone County.  

Lastly, is the game management.  Every week there are decisions made by this staff that puts this team into deeper holes.  It's a coach's job to help put the team in better positions to win, not put them in a worse situation.  The players should not have to overcome in game obstacles put forth by their own coach to hopefully achieve a victory. 

Look, am I expecting Dixie to world beaters?  No.  I understand the reality of their situation, especially being located so close to 2 perennial powerhouses in Beechwood and Cov Cath. I also understand the difficulty of their district.  But should they have a winning season more often than not?  Without question. Dixie should beat Conner, Boone County, and Scott.  4-6, with your only wins coming against awful teams is not success, no matter who the coach is.

I don't want to sidetrack the thread and since I am not in the area it took some time to look into things. Pretty much all of this came just from KHSAA site. Some other parts friends let me login on their Hudl accounts. There are parts of these statements and concerns that have merit. There are others that make one scratch their head.  I spent a lot of time coaching and still have a lot of friends that still coach. When someone comes on a message board and says the whole staff should be fired two games into a third season that is some bold statements. Too many of my coaching friends have been put in those spots and it is because of that I spent the time looking into things.

How is the scheme unsound? What scheme are they running on offense and defense? If someone is going to call out a staff for being unsound or "not gap sound" (which has been stated) then they should be able to give clear examples. The one on one example from Beechwood could be used. They weren't manning him up. They most certainly weren't playing him 1 on 1 the whole night. Do you believe they should have bracketed him or played cone to him? If so then how does that affect the run fits? Last year the offense was good enough to score 48 against Beechwood, 60 against Woodford and in the game against Cov Cath and Cooper. 

You are complaining about their out of district schedule.  Cov Cath, Beechwood, Ryle, SK and Hughes. I don't believe there are a lot of teams' lining up to play Cov Cath, Beechwood and Ryle. As far as playing Hughes for two year its because teams sign two year contracts. This is the last year of the two year cycle so next year can/will be different than this year. They had the second most difficult schedule in 5A only barely behind Bowling Green last year. 

As far as player performance goes they pretty much replaced their whole defense, almost the whole offensive line, and have a first year starter at QB. That is all information that is in the preview thread on here. So unless we are comparing how these players played in their JV games last year I am not sure how one is measuring development. 

I am all for passionate fan bases and people wanting the best for their school/children. I guess it's just the old coach in me. 

 

[Kellymt75]

Does anyone know how the Anderson kid for Dixie is doing?  He went down at Beechwood late and had to be helped off the field.  Really good running back that just got a UPike offer.

[RedHawk]

Looking for Cash to show out and light it up at this game! 

I know the history is such a mismatch but its a fun rivalry night on Dixie Highway for loads of kids who know each other/friends and the crowd is usually a great one.

[RedHawk]

Also, this game will be a "Pink Out".

This is what they posted:

This week’s Varsity football game on September 13th at Dixie will be a Pink Out to help support the “ I Have Wings Foundation”. The I Have Wings Foundation gives support to families that have been impacted by a breast cancer diagnosis.

The Spirit Shop is selling the 2024 Pink Colonels for a Cause T Shirt instore and online now. Proceeds from the sale of this shirt will go to the I Have Wings Foundation. We are asking all our fans (not just our Colonel Crazies) to buy a shirt and wear pink to show your support.