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TP94 Power Ratings - (11/16/22)


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6A:

Trinity   106.54
Ballard   103.25
Male   102.29
Henderson County 99.98
Central Hardin 96.51
Bryan Station 95.83
Bullitt East 91.36
Madison Central 80.89

 

5A:

 

Frederick Douglass 120
Bowling Green 101.09
Woodford County 100.77
Scott County 100.16
Southwestern 98.56
Owensboro 96.6
South Oldham 83.83
Fairdale   82.79

 

4A:

Corbin   107.5
Boyle County 103.27
Lexington Catholic 100.15
Johnson Central   94.39
Logan County 86.19
Warren East 85.54
Franklin County 85.33
Central   83.16

 

3A:

Christian Academy Louisville
  107.85
Paducah Tilghman 88.58
Union County 88.34
Bardstown 88.05
Ashland Blazer 80.4
Bell County 78.28
Mason County 76.05
Greenup County 75.68

 

2A:

Beechwood 99.49
Mayfield   91.77
Owensboro Catholic 83.91
Lexington Christian 83.57
Shelby Valley 75.98
Breathitt County 74.82
Lloyd Memorial 73.35
Metcalfe County 66.21

 

1A:

Pikeville   98.2
Raceland   93.65
Hazard   75.23
Newport Central Catholic 73.36
Louisville Holy Cross 65.09
KY Country Day   64.68
Paintsville   62.71
Crittenden County 62.29

 

Last week ratings picked 87.5 % of winners. Will be harder to pick this week with several close matchups. This week's picks:

Trinity

Ballard

Male 

Central Hardin

Frederick Douglass

Scott County

Bowling Green

Owensboro

Boyle County

Corbin

Warren East

Logan County

Union County

CAL

Mason County

Ashland Blazer

Beechwood

Mayfield

Owensboro Catholic

Breathitt County

Pikeville

Raceland

Newport Central Catholic

Lou. Holy Cross

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, BEChargers said:

I think Bullitt East could win out and still only be ranked 4th or 5th in 6A.

It is mind boggling that BE is still not being given much respect by a lot of people around the State. Go look at 6A stats to see that they are legit. This team has gotten the job done with just a minor blimp on the screen first game. Have beaten Male and Manual. Their offense is strong, especially in the passing game. They have a Mr. Football candidate in Travis Egan who has thrown for 2302 yards and his receivers have 165 catches. Running back Mason Gauthier has rushed for 1205 yards. Receivers Nolan Davenport with 53 catches for 851 yards and Cam Brogan with 57 catches for 775 yards. Ryan Still has three kick-off returns for a TD. Colin Elder has kicked 45 of 46 extra points. I think that those are pretty solid numbers. BE is averaging 42.2 points per game while giving up only 14.4 points per game. 

Central Hardin has a solid defense, but not sure they can slow down BE passing game. CH has a strong running game so BE defense will have to step up in the box to stop the run. CH has only thrown 62 times all season for 739 yards. 

The weather is going to play a factor in this game. Cold temperatures with a slight wind will not be ideal. The team that can manage this better will definitely have an advantage. BE must come out strong and eliminate silly penalties. Expect a big crowd from Mount Washington for this. However, low temperatures will keep some fans home. ALL GAS NO BRAKES!!!  WE BELIEVE!!!

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13 hours ago, BEChargers said:

I think Bullitt East could win out and still only be ranked 4th or 5th in 6A.

Agreed. Bullitt East strength of schedule is 27th in 6A. They probably will not be #1 in any formula driven ranking even if they win the state title.

The good news this week is Central Hardin's SOS is even worse.

The even better news is KHSAA RPI puts less value on true SOS so it is more favorable to Bullitt East. They might get a home game next week if they win this week.

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23 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Agreed. Bullitt East strength of schedule is 27th in 6A. They probably will not be #1 in any formula driven ranking even if they win the state title.

The good news this week is Central Hardin's SOS is even worse.

The even better news is KHSAA RPI puts less value on true SOS so it is more favorable to Bullitt East. They might get a home game next week if they win this week.

How does BE not get a home game if they win tomorrow? What am I missing?

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4 minutes ago, #RockNation said:

How does BE not get a home game if they win tomorrow? What am I missing?

If both Ballard and Bryan Station win, then they both have higher RPIs than BE.  If that's the case, then BE would visit Bryan Station and the winner of Henderson County & Male would visit Ballard.  BE has to win tomorrow first though.  It's going to be a tough game and they'll have to earn it.

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Just now, Unrivaled97 said:

If both Ballard and Bryan Station win, then they both have higher RPIs than BE.  If that's the case, then BE would visit Bryan Station and the winner of Henderson County & Male would visit Ballard.

I guess I didn't realize that they would move to the other side of the bracket for RPI...

hmm...

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Right now there is no cap on victory/loss margin. I may look at putting cap of 36 points for next year. If you show mercy and don't blow out weaker teams to the margin predicted by the ratings it drops the teams rating. Bullitt East had loss to Spencer County that is driving their rating down plus the weaker teams they didn't win as much as predicted and the formula takes the average strength of schedule of teams played and adds average victory/loss margin to arrive at final ranking. Next week since will only be 4 teams I'm going to strip out the teams with losing records and post the rating against winning teams only.

 

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Bullitt Easts' schedule turned out weaker than they had hoped with several teams slipping this year from last year.  The hiccup against Spencer County didn't help either.  But they seem to get little to no credit for a couple of really big wins.  In the end it doesn't matter, obviously.  They will continue to win or their season will end sooner than they hope.  Fun to talk about but the numbers are a little puzzling to me.  

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2 hours ago, Volxtile said:

Everyone knows this is a formula and not an opinion? Right?

I do understand it's a formula.  It's also a ranking which I care little about. I don't mean this one specifically,  I mean all rankings. People get way too upset about them.  Just win if you don't like them. RPI is the only ranking that matters as it affects possible home or away.  BE also only had 1 really good win before last week and a weak schedule.  I get that, but after a second GOOD win they went up in this formula less than a single point.  Just really don't get it.  But again, just win your games and it will all sort out in the end, and they can be fun to talk about.  

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