Frederick Douglass vs. Bryan Station Predictions/Updates

[16thBBall Fan]

Frederick Douglass will make the 3 mile trip across northern Lexington this Friday night to take on the Defenders of Bryan Station. The Broncos will be putting up their undefeated (19-0) streak vs all Lexington schools. The Defenders are coming off their best season (10-2) in a number of years under 2nd year coach Phillip Hawkins.

The Broncos are again loaded at the skill positions on the offensive side of the ball. The chore for Douglass will be to find some O-linemen which has some big shoes to fill when you are trying  replace  the likes of Walker Parks (2019) and Jagger Burton. The Broncos still have quarterback Samuel Cornett and Mr. Football contender Dane Key at wide receiver. While Key will get most of the defenses attention the Broncos also have returning at WR Ty Bryant, Camron Dunn and Thomas Howard at TE. The Broncos also have a very good lineup of defensive backs returning lead by Ty Bryant and Isaiah Kenny. They also have two of their leading tacklers from last year back at linebacker in Davis Joyner and Caden Johnson.

The Defenders return plenty of fire power on both sides of the ball as well. On offense they return running back Joesph Bond. The defenders quarterback Terik Mulder will have some very good WR's to throw to in Tylin Israel and AhTraivon Jenkins. On defense Bryan Station is returning linebackers Jason Hocker and Amodeus Taylor along with DE Yedideyah Sledge.

This game will probably come down to the O-line of the Broncos if they can create a few lanes to run the ball and especially give Cornett time to throw if could be a long night for the Defenders. The Defenders and the Bulldogs of PLD are probably the two best teams to have a shot to end the Broncos undefeated streak in Lexington. It is probably good to catch the Broncos early in the season. I look for the Broncos to win by 10+, but that's why they play the games. Looking forward to it. The game will on the NFHS network. Also, all Lexington school home games kickoff at 6:30.

[Tigerpride94]

I think this will be a competitive game. This is a chance for Bryan Station to get a signature win and put 6A on notice. Frederick Douglass winning show they can be the #1 team in 5A. I will lean to Frederick Douglass winning since they are undefeated against Lexington competition and to be the man, you have to beat the man.

[Tigerpride94]

If the coaches have a rap off then Coach Hawkins wins hands down. Lol.

[DevilMayCare]

There might be some hyperbole involved here, but this feels like one of the biggest games involving two Lexington schools in years. 

I think Station can absolutely compete with Douglass. If the Defenders live up to their name and keep FD's big plays to a minimum, they have the horses to be there in the end with a chance to win. If the Broncos are vulnerable anywhere this year, it might be in the trenches. They have skill people galore, but no Jager Burton or Walker Parks on the roster, to the best of my knowledge.  

I'd love to see Station win this thing and send a message from Fayette to Jefferson County. It's been a while. 

I'm going to listen to my heart on this one, so let's go Defenders. The atmosphere on Eastin Road next Friday should be something else.

[Hungover_in_Andover]

Guys, I was looking forward to this post! I love the fact that Dunbar and Station's programs are resuscitated and revitalized, as it is always good to see teams figure it out, and get back to their winning ways. 

However, I hate to tell you guys this, but the only thing that will stop Douglass from hanging 70 on the new look Defenders, will be Coach Nathan  McPeek removing the first stringers. 

Yes! A strong statement. But it will prove to be true. This is not homerism for the Broncos, but brutal realism for Bryan Station. 

First and foremost, unless I have been lied to, Station has adopted the triple option for the 2021 season. If this holds true, they are at an IMMEDIATE disadvantage. Why is that? Well, considering Scott County has terrorized Central KY competition and won a state title using this offensive philosophy for YEARS, and their players have learned and executed this offense since middle school... 

It appears that Frederick Douglass' defense has solved it, and have effectively stopped it 4 out of the last 5 games they have played one another. With that one loss being a 28-27 playoff final after a missed FDHS field goal as time expired (by the way, that is no longer their most heartbreaking playoff loss, that ended at a score of 28-27 due to a missed field goal; see 2020 FDHS vs Owensboro playoff game).

I digress. Point is, if Douglass has consistently and CONVINCINGLY been smacking around their northern neighbor the past 3 years, how in the world does a team that just installed this offense expect to even score? No peewee or middle school team in Fayette County uses a triple option, so no kids on Bryan Station have run that offense ever. And in a just a few months, they are expected to learn this system, and hang with Douglass? 

The QB Mulder was the BSHS starter last season, and had some early success, but at the regular season district game vs Oldham Co (I was there), he struggled, and was pulled in favor of a much more mobile senior QB  Mikaleb Coffey who dazzled in a comeback win for the Defenders. 

And no knock to the kid Mulder, if you see him in pads he looks like a D2 or even a D1 caliber player! See, the thing is, Mulder was a statue in the backfield, an easy target for a agile DE or blitzing linebacker. And teams game planned for that type of a QB. So, when Coffey exploded on the scene, teams were caught off guard by this new, quick footed, instinct-driven athlete! 

So even without 2021 game film on this offense, I am betting the QB won't keep the ball much at all, and that the Douglass line is going to catch on quick. In addition, Station has a relatively undersized O-line, which may be the catalyst for the triple option installation. I expect they will cut block, similar to what Georgia Tech employed for years.

However, I am telling you now, that is NOT going to stop the Dline for Douglass, which may very well be their deepest rotation! They are very disciplined, and relentless. It will be a tough task for Station to cross the 50 yard line, aside from a great punt/kickoff return.

For those familiar with Bryan Station's junior skill players, they are a talented bunch. Due to the mismatch between the Station OL and Douglass DL, I fully expect them to resort to wildcat by the 2nd quarter.

I am seeing more people questioning the resolve and resiliency of this Douglass offensive line. Yes, Jager and his multiple pancake blocks are gone, along with Romarion Warner (now with the Georgetown Tigers) and others. However, what was once the 2nd string OL, keep in mind they were in and generally playing the entire 2nd half of almost all of FDHS' games the past two years, and still were driving and scoring against 1st string defenses. These kids have been waiting for their chance to get 1st string reps, and they are more than ready.

This is quite the essay, but I didn't want people to look at my opening statement and think I am just recklessly talking out of the side of my neck. I saw both play multiple games last year, and sorry to say, Station is not ready, and to be frank, neither is Dunbar. 

The fact that those two have been ranked as top 5 6A  teams shows that most rankings are really wild guesses about teams you have never seen play, and they are just going off hearsay.

Sorry to pick on Station, but out of their 10 wins in 2020 (they beat Madison Central twice and Oldham Co twice) only Dunbar and Oldham Co had winning records. Among the other six teams, those teams had a combined ten wins. Make what you will of that statement.

 

OHHH! I almost forgot to mention, the other x-factor in this game. Anyone who has watched Douglass play since 2017, knows that a number of their players have had a propensity for drawing multiple penalties for talking smack to opponents. Well, whenever Bryan Station has played Douglass, it is usually the other way around.

Be on the lookout for a LOT of flags, primarily against Station, for unsportsmanlike conduct midway through the 2nd and throughout the remainder of the game, as many of the former pee wee teammates, and former middle school rivals face off and jaw at one another between plays, and especially as the gap widens on the scoreboard.  Both coaches are going to preach to their kids to not receive penalties for trash talking, but believe you me. ITS GONNA HAPPEN. 

 

Well, the way the WWE-like hype has built up for this matchup locally, why not add gasoline to the fire? Bryan Station and Coach Hawkins have apparently adopted the phrase "The Team On Winchester Road" in reference to Douglass. 

Taking a page out of the Douglass playbook (Douglass football has called Scott Co. "The Team Up North", or "TTUN" since its inception), the Defenders may think that is clever, but Douglass has gravitated towards it. The Broncos student section has been gifted orange "The Team On  Winchester Road" shirts to wear at the game by some boosters, and expect to see a lot of that phrase on Twitter this week. 

Let's end this with a prediction. 56-6. My heart says 70-0, but again, I think Douglass will be content to reach running clock territory and send in the 2nd stringers to get early season reps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tigerallamerican]

FDU by a lot. Bryan Station is still a couple of years away from the top but definitely headed in the right direction. I'm a fan of what Coach Hawkins is building over there. 

[FLYGUY]

This will be a bad night for Station.. They are not close to the team Douglas is. 

[Tigerpride94]

 

[Purple88]

Good Luck to @coachhawk vs Douglas!  I didn't know you could rap!  🤣

@Hungover_in_Andoverthat is a dag-gone impressive post!  Good luck to your team.  No injuries or Covid for either!

[Hungover_in_Andover]

@Purple88  Very scary the way this Week One Covid list is shaping up...

[barrel]

@Hungover_in_Andover Scott Co is wing-t and not even typical wing-t. They are an open side Belly oriented offense that runs Belly Sweep and Tackle Trap but not any of the Belly series. They base out of about 5 plays and 4 formations. 
 

I haven’t seen Station but if they are going triple then my guess is flexbone. There aren’t many flexbone teams past Great Crossing in the state. I don’t know if there are any split back veer teams in the state. Now year one and especially game one in the triple isn’t easy. It takes a ton of reps to get good at. It takes a good deal of time for coaches to learn how to coach it. 
 

The point is those two offenses are not the same. They aren’t defended the same. They attack defenses the same in only the manner of they are both if/then approaches. Even how a defense has to play assignment football isn’t the same. If Station sticks with the triple and gets good at it over time then watch out. There is a reason Alabama stopped scheduling triple teams. They are a royal pain to get ready for in a week. If you want to go crazy for a week try to get a scout to to run triple or wing-t. 
 

Douglas has always been good. I expect nothing less of them. 

[Hungover_in_Andover]

9 minutes ago, barrel said:

@Hungover_in_Andover Scott Co is wing-t and not even typical wing-t. They are an open side Belly oriented offense that runs Belly Sweep and Tackle Trap but not any of the Belly series. They base out of about 5 plays and 4 formations. 
 

I haven’t seen Station but if they are going triple then my guess is flexbone. There aren’t many flexbone teams past Great Crossing in the state. I don’t know if there are any split back veer teams in the state. Now year one and especially game one in the triple isn’t easy. It takes a ton of reps to get good at. It takes a good deal of time for coaches to learn how to coach it. 
 

The point is those two offenses are not the same. They aren’t defended the same. They attack defenses the same in only the manner of they are both if/then approaches. Even how a defense has to play assignment football isn’t the same. If Station sticks with the triple and gets good at it over time then watch out. There is a reason Alabama stopped scheduling triple teams. They are a royal pain to get ready for in a week. If you want to go crazy for a week try to get a scout to to run triple or wing-t. 
 

Douglas has always been good. I expect nothing less of them. 

I appreciate the differentiating of those offenses. When I have talked to Station folks, they do use "triple option" generically, and since I haven't seen them in person, I can't make the call as to which version they may be using. 

And they very well may learn to execute it well down the road, but again, not one team on any level in Lexington runs a triple option, veer, wing-t, etc so it may take a while for their players to catch on, as opposed to other teams that do use it, and their feeder schools do as well.

[16thBBall Fan]

This game will be on the NFHS Network at 6:30.

[Tigerpride94]

6 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

This game will be on the NFHS Network at 6:30.

https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/bryan-station-high-school-lexington-ky/gam4eefad3c7b

[Brown]

HUGE game - @coachhawkwill have his team ready and big things are expected.  I definitely know about Freddie from Owensboro battling them the last 2 years.  Great program, top notch athletes...loaded. I think at Bryan Station it will be tight for a while, but Key and company will be too much.

 

Broncos 35-21