Flattening the Curve?

[ConverseAllStar]

I understood that the original intent of "flattening the curve" of coronavirus cases was to prevent us from overwhelming our medical system and to allow us to buy time to supply ventilators, PPE, and other materials to our hospitals. I believe the total number of cases would be similar under the "do nothing" model and the "flatten the curve" model - the difference is that the "do nothing" model would have overwhelmed the system. Can anyone confirm those comparative numbers?

 

I know most Kentucky hospitals, including those in Louisville and Lexington, are operating well below capacity and several have furloughed workers.

 

Of course, the major difference at this point (assuming we have shown that our healthcare system is not overrun nationally) is that the "flatten the curve" model will take longer to play out, as opposed to the "do nothing" model which would have spiked quickly then subsided.

 

If these assumptions are accurate, I'm in favor of a limited opening of our economy while protecting our most vulnerable (who may have to quarantine for a longer period of time) but not to the point that it will overwhelm our healthcare system. The sooner we begin repairing the damage to our economy the better.

[John Anthony]

Flatten the curve and move forward. Staying idle doesn’t get anyone anywhere and in this case it’s a few hundred million people.

[TheDeuce]

People >>> The economy.

[John Anthony]

People >>> The economy.

 

Quality of life effects people too.

[MBWC41]

People >>> The economy.

 

Quality of life effects people too.

 

It would be very interesting to see the rate of suicide versus the rate of death from virus in a complete economic depression.

[John Anthony]

It would be very interesting to see the rate of suicide versus the rate of death from virus in a complete economic depression.

 

I’m sure a lot of research will be conducted on various mental health studies on all of this. I think it’s being grossly overlooked.

[MBWC41]

I’m sure a lot of research will be conducted on various mental health studies on all of this. I think it’s being grossly overlooked.

 

Agreed.

 

Health and the economy depend on each other.

 

There is no economy without healthy people and healthy people don’t exist without a solid economy.

 

As much as we would like it to be, everything in life isn’t black and white...

[theguru]

People >>> The economy.

 

Quality of life effects people too.

 

It would be very interesting to see the rate of suicide versus the rate of death from virus in a complete economic depression.

 

I’m sure a lot of research will be conducted on various mental health studies on all of this. I think it’s being grossly overlooked.

 

Agreed.

 

 

Health and the economy depend on each other.

 

 

There is no economy without healthy people and healthy people don’t exist without a solid economy.

 

 

As much as we would like it to be, everything in life isn’t black and white...

 

Count me in with @John Anthony and @MBWC41 on the suicide/mental health/untold deaths that hopefully we get accurate reporting on.

 

I see this equation more as:

 

People/Deaths + Economy vs. People/Deaths

 

Again to refer back to Sir Isaac Newton, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

[sportsfan41]

Count me in with @John Anthony and @MBWC41 on the suicide/mental health/untold deaths that hopefully we get accurate reporting on.

 

I see this equation more as:

 

People/Deaths + Economy vs. People/Deaths

 

Again to refer back to Sir Isaac Newton, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

 

I haven't paid much attention to the numbers for the past month as I've been working from home mostly. When I have looked at them on occasion, I've noticed some fatal over doses and a handful of suicides. There's been some assaults on first responders and random shootings as well. Overall there hasn't been a big increase but you can tell that this is having a strain on some folks psyche.

[MBWC41]

I haven't paid much attention to the numbers for the past month as I've been working from home mostly. When I have looked at them on occasion, I've noticed some fatal over doses and a handful of suicides. There's been some assaults on first responders and random shootings as well. Overall there hasn't been a big increase but you can tell that this is having a strain on some folks psyche.

 

I live on around 6 acres, detached garage, all kinds of room and toys/ hobbies to mess with and a fridge full of beer.

 

I truly cannot fathom apartment living during these times. I honestly think it would ruin me.

[sportsfan41]

I live on around 6 acres, detached garage, all kinds of room and toys/ hobbies to mess with and a fridge full of beer.

 

I truly cannot fathom apartment living during these times. I honestly think it would ruin me.

 

It sounds like you live in the house I've been looking for the past couple of years. I definitely couldn't handle an apartment right now either. People smoking, yelling, listening to loud music, kids etc. That would be enough to drive a man insane.

[ConverseAllStar]

If total number of people = total number of people, then the economy (and mental health) is the tie breaker!

[TheDeuce]

Oh so we care about mental health now too? :lol2:

[TheDeuce]

Quality of life effects people too.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people experienced terrible quality of life well before Coronavirus. It only matters now because it’s affecting new people.

[Bluegrasscard]

Over 200,000 were condemned to premature deaths when the economy was shut down. That was the deal going in. There is no sugar coating it. The suicide rate is already rising.

 

About half due to excess heart attacks, about a quarter in suicides and a quarter of other issues. That's the math. The impact will be slanted toward to the less fortunate, the minorities and the young and families.

 

Its not an either/or issue. People are prematurely dying from a new virus and they are prematurely dying due to economic factors. Both are now happening and that is the situation. As the situation with the former subsides the focus on the later will become critical. There are hardly any more drastic actions to be taken with the virus. Its time to focus on the actions needed for the recovery and start planning to #GetBackToWork .