The South Oldham Dragons had an extremely convincing win over 6A #6 Central Hardin last night and we can see from the game final thread some among us think the Dragons are a serious 5A title contender moving forward.

 

http://bluegrasspreps.com/ky-football-high/south-oldham-43-383345.html

 

Every other game on South Oldham's schedule was a blowout win for the Dragons other than their season opening overtime loss to 3A #8 Christian Academy of Louisville.

 

On one hand SO is peaking at the right time but on the other hand Class 5A has some very good football teams ranked ahead of the Dragons:

 

1. Covington Catholic

2. Frederick Douglass

3. Scott County

4. Bowling Green

5. South Warren

 

I will ask again, who is riding the "Dragon Wagon" and realistically, what are South Oldham's chances at winning the state title?

Tough. Round 1 and 2 a cakewalk. They then host the BG purples or South Warren. If the somehow win in round 3, which I think they can. They would then travel to Covington Catholic. A monster of a hill to climb. Then Frederick Douglass/Scott County/ Owensboro in the finals. That’s 3 hard games in a row.

Tough. Round 1 and 2 a cakewalk. They then host the BG purples or South Warren. If the somehow win in round 3, which I think they can. They would then travel to Covington Catholic. A monster of a hill to climb. Then Frederick Douglass/Scott County/ Owensboro in the finals. That’s 3 hard games in a row.

 

Assuming you are right about all those possible match ups I am sticking with what I said in the other thread on this topic: Slim and none.

Jamie Reed is about as good a coach as they come at the high school level. It’s definitely a tall task to beat South Warren/Bowling Green, CovCath and Frederick Douglass in back to back to back weeks, but South has the best shot out of the field of pulling it off.

@theguru, Yes after I put it down I thought the same. 1 big win doesn’t mean you will run through that gauntlet. It looks like a 2-horse race in 5A.

Jamie Reed is about as good a coach as they come at the high school level. It’s definitely a tall task to beat South Warren/Bowling Green, CovCath and Frederick Douglass in back to back to back weeks, but South has the best shot out of the field of pulling it off.

 

Coach Reed needs to upgrade his schedule.

 

The Dragons don't look like they have played anyone to prepare them for the level of teams they will potentially face in the final three rounds.

@theguru, Yes after I put it down I thought the same. 1 big win doesn’t mean you will run through that gauntlet. It looks like a 2-horse race in 5A.

 

Trust me, I knew right away when I got the push back this thread was coming.

 

Once we look at the "evidence" there is very little about South Oldham (and nothing outside of last nights win) that says the Dragons are a realistic 5A title contender at this point.

You talked me back from the ledge!

You talked me back from the ledge!

 

When I worked for the Government I did that professionally. :thumb:

Tough. Round 1 and 2 a cakewalk. They then host the BG purples or South Warren. If the somehow win in round 3, which I think they can. They would then travel to Covington Catholic. A monster of a hill to climb. Then Frederick Douglass/Scott County/ Owensboro in the finals. That’s 3 hard games in a row.

 

That’s a tall order for any team! The chances are against South. I still believe this team will be in the final four where anything can happen.

Their defense is very good. That will keep them in the game. The offensive line has come a long way and the running game is very tough to stop. All the skill players can take it to the house.

Shock the world Dragons!!

I'm on the Covington Catholic wagon. I'll roll with the team that beat the GCL-South champs. Having said that, South Oldham is a good team and certainly are a contender.

I think it's all very clear that the final three games of the playoffs - for any team - in class 5A will be huge "hills" to climb.

 

I also think it's reasonable to say that CovCath and Frederick Douglas (or Frederick Douglas and CovCath, pick your order) are clear favorites.

 

But I also think the next four teams - South Warren, Bowling Green, Scott County, and South Oldham - all have the moxie to pull an upset or two. And the dominoes can fall in funny ways....what if a couple of those teams knock off the two kingpins? Then you've suddenly got a mad scramble with some very competitive matchups.

 

The difference between 5A and 6A is this: I don't believe in 6A there are enough other contenders capable of knocking down one - or both - of the Big 2. In 5A, I believe there are. So - while I don't think Manual has much of a chance of pulling off all the upsets needed by themselves to win class 6A, I see a very legitimate possibility for the Scott Co / South Warren / BG / South Oldham clump of teams to make a concerted push and "help each other out."

 

Are all four long shots? Yes. Outside the realm of possibility? No.

 

As for South's schedule, Jamie's a little more locked in than most coaches. He gets what he gets in the district, and that's four games. He inherited a new district that just happens to be really down this year. Amazingly, all four of South's district rivals are in the midst of rebuilding - Jeffersontown, Atherton, North Bullitt, and Seneca. It's just the way it goes. That's four games.

 

He has to play the other two Oldham teams. North Oldham was undermanned, undersized, and outgunned this year en route to a 1-9 campaign. Oldham County had a competitive year, finishing 6-4, but that game was played at South and the Colonels weren't competitive that night in a 49-0 loss.

 

That's six games he has no control over on the schedule.

 

The remaining four games were filled by playing up a class on the road (6A Eastern, who just didn't turn out to be too terribly good this year), playing an average 5A Bullitt Central team, playing a ranked defending state champion on the road (pre-season #1 in 3A Christian Academy of Louisville), and ending the season with another 6A top 10 team in #6-ranked Central Hardin.

 

That's not a horrible foursome...and you never really know, when you sign the contract, what those teams will look like when you actually play. Eastern is typically a pretty tough team, and they are practically a neighborhood rival. Bullitt Central has been on a gradual upswing of late. And CAL and CH were both ranked in the top 10.

 

I don't know if South will win class 5A - I think they are one of the "dark horses" in the field - but I definitely think they could.

 

CM

South Oldham has some “old school football” talent and has been coached extremely well for a number of seasons. It wouldn’t shock me to see them there and a little bit of me hopes they can pull off some “upsets“ and at least be on the dance floor. However, it’s a tall task for whoever makes it out of 5A this year.

South Oldham has some “old school football” talent and has been coached extremely well for a number of seasons. It wouldn’t shock me to see them there and a little bit of me hopes they can pull off some “upsets“ and at least be on the dance floor. However, it’s a tall task for whoever makes it out of 5A this year.

 

Amen. There's a lot of talent in the top 5A teams this year.... The 5A playoffs will be a really rough ride...

CovCath is the favorite, obviously.

 

FD hasn't beaten anybody to where we should think they are unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Do I think South is going to win 5A? No... But "slim and none" is a bit of a stretch, unless you are going to apply that logic to every team not named CovCath.