If this were a NASCAR race, Trump would be drafting on Clinton's bumper.

 

It's closer, but it's still not that close.

I have an Electoral College question. I know that the electors meet in December to ceremoniously vote based upon the results from the November Presidential election. I know 270 votes are needed. If something happens to HRC in the Justice system between November and December, and speculating if she wins, could (or would) the Electoral College electors do anything different?

 

Yes. They're called "faithless electors". There have been many of them through the years. Several states have laws that require the electors to pledge that they won't deviate from their promise to vote for the party's candidate, but the Supreme Court has said that while the pledges are legal, they can't compel an elector to vote a certain way.

 

The constitution ultimately grants electors the freedom to vote how they choose and if something truly significant were to happen, then yes, you could potentially see some folks jump ship and cast votes for others.

I have an Electoral College question. I know that the electors meet in December to ceremoniously vote based upon the results from the November Presidential election. I know 270 votes are needed. If something happens to HRC in the Justice system between November and December, and speculating if she wins, could (or would) the Electoral College electors do anything different?

 

They could. But considering the type of people who serve as electors, it would have to be something earthshaking to cause them to flip.

 

It does go to the house, but not for a full floor vote. My understanding is that each state gets one vote in this scenario. So I don't know if there's a plan for how the representatives of each state decide how to cast that state's vote. For example, New Hampshire has one Republican representative and one Democratic representative... how is that vote cast?

 

Lots of strange things would have to happen for us to find out the answers to any of this.

 

I believe if a state caucus is tied they don't get to cast a vote.

They could. But considering the type of people who serve as electors, it would have to be something earthshaking to cause them to flip.

 

So considering that the Republicans have a majority within more state caucuses, essentially the McMullin plan would not be trying to play to compromise, but to actually try to convince Republican congressmen not to vote for Donald Trump.

 

I don't know the numbers, but the Twelfth Amendment says that you needs two-thirds of the states for a quorum on this issue. Do the numbers suggest that it would require at least a couple of the Democratic-controlled states to show up? Or if the Democratic majorities failed to turn up to cast a vote, could a republican minority within the state caucus cast a vote?

 

But like I said, lots of strange things have to happen for us to find out any of this. The likelihood of McMullin winning is still very low and the likelihood of either Trump or Clinton failing to get 270 is even lower.

If Evan McMullin can find a way to win Utah and neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270, then Trump's inability to play nicely with others could come home to roost.

 

Under that scenario, I could definitely see a Republican house finding a way to make McMullin president with the agreement that he rejoin the Republican party once he takes office.

 

The only way I see that happening is if Trump somehow swung Colorado or Wisconsin while missing out on Utah. Colorado, I could see, but not Wisconsin. The other so-called tipping points or battleground states would all still be enough to give it to one of the candidates in any scenario, except for New Hampshire, which in the likely paths would merely push both below 270 anyway.

 

For instance if Trump swung the purple states of North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada (Ohio looks increasingly red so didn't include it), based on projections right now, that would give him 259 without Utah. If he took Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20) (both remote chances in my mind), he wouldn't need Utah. But if he took Wisconsin (10) or Colorado (9), he would. If he took New Hampshire (4), even with Utah he wouldn't win it.

Based on the polls on fivethirtyeight, as discussed in that thread, it's tightening for certain. Hillary's "firewall" is still intact, but momentum has definitely shifted in North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada. Ohio and Iowa have also moved well away in last week. If Trump were to win all five of those, it'll get very interesting. Utah, BTW, still appears solidly in his camp, though McMullin has made a college try of it. If all of those go red, he'd still have to find his way to win either Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Colorado is easily the most likely of those, and still isn't exactly close.

It's starting to get closer.

 

Latest polls in Ohio, NC, Iowa, and Nevada all show Trump with a narrow lead. Florida is basically a coin-flip right now, and most polls I've seen show it tightening in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

 

All that said, I still expect a comfortable Hillary win come election night.

 

^^^

THIS!!! Mark our words!!! It won't be particularly close. 28% of early GOP voters in FLA voted for Hillary.

 

Florida Disaster for Trump as 28% Early Voting Republicans Vote for Clinton

If Evan McMullin can find a way to win Utah and neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270, then Trump's inability to play nicely with others could come home to roost.

 

Under that scenario, I could definitely see a Republican house finding a way to make McMullin president with the agreement that he rejoin the Republican party once he takes office.

 

That would be nuts and a fitting way for all of this to play out.

No need to sweat, Democrats. Quit listening to all the noise. Take Mustang's prediction and add 29+ EV's to Hillary's total and you'll be pretty close to the final tally, imo.

No need to sweat, Democrats. Quit listening to all the noise. Take Mustang's prediction and add 29+ EV's to Hillary's total and you'll be pretty close to the final tally, imo.

 

You calling it at around 325-330 for HRC? Where do you think the Popular vote falls out at?

You calling it at around 325-330 for HRC? Where do you think the Popular vote falls out at?

 

I think it will be strikingly similar to '12, in both EV's and popular vote. 3-4% margin for Clinton. What do you think?

I think it will be strikingly similar to '12, in both EV's and popular vote. 3-4% margin for Clinton. What do you think?

 

Somewhere from 270 Trump to 293 Clinton. I look for the margin to be within 2%. It's still a long shot for Trump to hit 270, but not as long as it was a week or so ago.

Somewhere from 270 Trump to 293 Clinton. I look for the margin to be within 2%. It's still a long shot for Trump to hit 270, but not as long as it was a week or so ago.

 

 

If he is able to flip a "blue," (which I don't believe will happen without some huge Nov. surprise before Tues) which state do you think it would be?

Getting closer.

 

538 had HRC at 86% chance to win a week or so ago. Now it's about 68%.

If he is able to flip a "blue," (which I don't believe will happen without some huge Nov. surprise before Tues) which state do you think it would be?

 

Some reports have Trump with a chance to flip New Hampshire, he will probably get 1 of Maine's electors. So it could look like this if he flips NH

 

But he still has a lot of work to do to get to this.