November 2, 20169 yr I have been staying away from politics but I have been hit with some "Trump is in the lead stories" the last few days. So tell me, how close is the race now?
November 2, 20169 yr It's hard to say. National polls are essentially meaningless. Polls within battleground states are the only things that matter, and even those are tough to rely on much week-to-week. I've seen some things to suggest PA could be shifting more toward Trump. That result would cause some early consternation among the Democrats on Election Night.
November 2, 20169 yr It's starting to get closer. Latest polls in Ohio, NC, Iowa, and Nevada all show Trump with a narrow lead. Florida is basically a coin-flip right now, and most polls I've seen show it tightening in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. All that said, I still expect a comfortable Hillary win come election night.
November 2, 20169 yr You know what they say about statistics, don't you. :lol2: Anyway, these polls don't mean squat to me since we don't elect by popular vote. In theory, you could win by several million votes, and if you lose the right states, still lose the election. Trump is probably very much in the lead in certain states. Same way Hillary is in others. The question is, how much do some of the swing states reflect the nationwide polls? Because that will ultimately determine who wins.
November 2, 20169 yr It's hard to say. National polls are essentially meaningless. Polls within battleground states are the only things that matter, and even those are tough to rely on much week-to-week. I've seen some things to suggest PA could be shifting more toward Trump. That result would cause some early consternation among the Democrats on Election Night. Agreed. I feel like some people forget "battleground" states are where to look. The electoral college is what matters, not the national polls. Trump will have to win nearly all the battleground states to have a shot at winning unless some of these other traditional (D) states shift. I'm teaching a social studies class this week where the students are looking for historical trends of the last 16 presidential elections. Trying to get them to have an unbiased look at an electoral prediction without all the BS. How they predict battleground states should be interesting. We'll see if anyone can predict the exact number of electoral votes for each party's candidate.
November 2, 20169 yr Agreed. I feel like some people forget "battleground" states are where to look. The electoral college is what matters, not the national polls. Trump will have to win nearly all the battleground states to have a shot at winning unless some of these other traditional (D) states shift. I'm teaching a social studies class this week where the students are looking for historical trends of the last 16 presidential elections. Trying to get them to have an unbiased look at an electoral prediction without all the BS. How they predict battleground states should be interesting. We'll see if anyone can predict the exact number of electoral votes for each party's candidate. I'm guessing Hillary wins it 294-244.
November 2, 20169 yr For Trump to win I would look at the 2000 election as the scenario. Hillary wins the majority of the popular vote but narrowly misses 270 electoral votes.
November 2, 20169 yr Neither get to 270 and this puppy goes into overtime. If Evan McMullin can find a way to win Utah and neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270, then Trump's inability to play nicely with others could come home to roost. Under that scenario, I could definitely see a Republican house finding a way to make McMullin president with the agreement that he rejoin the Republican party once he takes office.
November 2, 20169 yr I have an Electoral College question. I know that the electors meet in December to ceremoniously vote based upon the results from the November Presidential election. I know 270 votes are needed. If something happens to HRC in the Justice system between November and December, and speculating if she wins, could (or would) the Electoral College electors do anything different?
November 2, 20169 yr Forgive my ignorance on the matter, but does it go to the house in that scenario? I didn't know that. If Evan McMullin can find a way to win Utah and neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270, then Trump's inability to play nicely with others could come home to roost. Under that scenario, I could definitely see a Republican house finding a way to make McMullin president with the agreement that he rejoin the Republican party once he takes office.
November 2, 20169 yr If Evan McMullin can find a way to win Utah and neither Trump nor Clinton gets 270, then Trump's inability to play nicely with others could come home to roost. Under that scenario, I could definitely see a Republican house finding a way to make McMullin president with the agreement that he rejoin the Republican party once he takes office. It would definitely be interesting to see how it would play out in that scenario. I can't imagine members of Congress would budge on either Hillary or Trump, which makes me believe either McMullin or Johnson would be the "compromise" pick.
November 2, 20169 yr Forgive my ignorance on the matter, but does it go to the house in that scenario? I didn't know that. It does go to the house, but not for a full floor vote. My understanding is that each state gets one vote in this scenario. So I don't know if there's a plan for how the representatives of each state decide how to cast that state's vote. For example, New Hampshire has one Republican representative and one Democratic representative... how is that vote cast? Lots of strange things would have to happen for us to find out the answers to any of this.
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.