July 31, 201610 yr 538 has Clinton with a 51% chance of winning. They had Trump slightly ahead yesterday.
July 31, 201610 yr Now at Hillary Clinton 53.3% Donald Trump 46.7% As of the latest update on 538...this of course may change in the next few days...if Clinton receives the bump some expect from the DNC. 538, the site many on here have said is the most accurate and the one they trust the most (because it looks at more than just polling) now has... Clinton with a 51% Chance of Winning and Trump with a 49% chance of winning.
July 31, 201610 yr 538 has Clinton with a 51% chance of winning. They had Trump slightly ahead yesterday. Sorry didn't see this until after I posted the above.
July 31, 201610 yr Another bogus poll. You dug deep for this one. Where did you have to go to find it, the dark web? Slate? Follow the link. Considering 538 uses their polls there may be some cred behind it. I expect you will see something similar throughout the next two weeks.
August 1, 201610 yr Clinton back up to a 53.3% chance of winning on 538 this morning. Wasn't it 65% right before the conventions started? It will be interesting what it looks like in another week or so.
August 1, 201610 yr Wasn't it 65% right before the conventions started? It will be interesting what it looks like in another week or so. At some point it was over 70% and got as low as 51% I think...it will be interesting. More ups and downs than a day at Cedar Point.
August 1, 201610 yr Wasn't it 65% right before the conventions started? It will be interesting what it looks like in another week or so. It's been on a decline for a while. I think it was 77% at one time not too long ago.
August 2, 201610 yr CBS News did a poll right after R convention bump. HRC had support of only 14% of conservatives. Did the poll again today. She is now up to 21% amongst conservatives.
August 2, 201610 yr CBS News did a poll right after R convention bump. HRC had support of only 14% of conservatives. Did the poll again today. She is now up to 21% amongst conservatives. I predicted a 5+% jump among conservatives after the conservative look and feel of the Democratic convention. We'll see if she maintains it.
August 2, 201610 yr 538's new info has Clinton mopping the floor with Trump. These numbers include the convention bounce.
August 2, 201610 yr With the "bounce" factored in HRC is back up to 68% per 538. That's what I was figuring, once the dust settles we'll be right back where we were before the conventions. Parties could have saved themselves a lot of money.
August 2, 201610 yr That's what I was figuring, once the dust settles we'll be right back where we were before the conventions. Parties could have saved themselves a lot of money. Exactly. But again, this gets back to my post last week on polls. Are there really that many people that sway back and forth that leads to a 7 point swing in one week? Week-by-week?
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