February 13, 201511 yr I guess I just don't understand the move. They basically gave him what he was asking for arbitration. I wouldn't have settled for anything less than a multi-year deal if I were the Reds. If it's going to be just the one year, why not just let it play out? Mathematically, not correct. He wanted $8.7. Reds offered $6.65. Midpoint was $7.675. Agreed to $8.05. Saved $650k if arbitrator had gone Chapman's way. Spent $1.4 more than if arbitrator had gone Reds way. Given the small difference involved, probably not worth going through a hearing where you point out any negatives the player has and/or compare him to other players he probably thinks he's worth more than. Paying $375k over midpoint is chump change to potentially avoid hard feelings. Probably why the Reds have not gone to arbitration since 2004 w/ Chris Reitsma!!!
February 13, 201511 yr Major League average of Saves Opportunities converted to Saves is around 69%, Chapman was #2 in Baseball last year at 95%. The Reds had 19 blown Saves last season, Chapman had only 2 of them. Reds had 25 Save Opportunities (not counting Chapman's) and only converted 8 of them to Saves. So it does look like losing Chapman would probably cost the Reds some wins...do wins correlate to ticket sales? Hmmm The worst save percent for any reliever with 20 or more saves last year was 82% and most blown saves was 7. Chapman blew 2 saves. How much extra should you pay for at most 5 more saves? Closer is the #1 position on a baseball team where you should look to save money if you are a budget conscious team like the Reds.
February 13, 201511 yr The worst save percent for any reliever with 20 or more saves last year was 82% and most blown saves was 7. Chapman blew 2 saves. How much extra should you pay for at most 5 more saves? Closer is the #1 position on a baseball team where you should look to save money if you are a budget conscious team like the Reds. The rest of the bullpen blew 17 saves, if Chapman is gone and they pitch his games then you are looking at 20+ more blown saves in addition to the 17 they already blew from the Reds with the personnel they had minus Chapman. What's 20 wins worth?
February 14, 201511 yr The rest of the bullpen blew 17 saves, if Chapman is gone and they pitch his games then you are looking at 20+ more blown saves in addition to the 17 they already blew from the Reds with the personnel they had minus Chapman. What's 20 wins worth? Don't forget that a lot of relievers are charged with a blown save when they are not meant to be the one closing the game. You can be charged with a blown save in the 6th or 7th inning provided you meet the 3 save conditions when you enter the game. Almost all of those blown saves by bullpen members other than Chapman would have been blown saves no matter if he were on the team or not.
February 14, 201511 yr I cannot figure out why Chapman wants to remain a closer. As a starter, $8MM is basically chump change. He and the Reds would be better off with him as a starter IMO.
February 14, 201511 yr The rest of the bullpen blew 17 saves, if Chapman is gone and they pitch his games then you are looking at 20+ more blown saves in addition to the 17 they already blew from the Reds with the personnel they had minus Chapman. What's 20 wins worth? All that matters in a debate about Chapman is the closer, not the rest of the bullpen. My point is you can always find a closer who will be close enough stat wise to replace whoever your closer is. That is why you don't over pay for a closer. True, they likely will not be Chapman level but whoever it is will be within 5 blown saves of Chapman.
February 14, 201511 yr All that matters in a debate about Chapman is the closer, not the rest of the bullpen. My point is you can always find a closer who will be close enough stat wise to replace whoever your closer is. That is why you don't over pay for a closer. True, they likely will not be Chapman level but whoever it is will be within 5 blown saves of Chapman. Totally agree. That is why teams pay so much for good starters and not as much for closers. It is much easier to replace a good closer than a good starter.
February 15, 201511 yr I cannot figure out why Chapman wants to remain a closer. As a starter, $8MM is basically chump change. He and the Reds would be better off with him as a starter IMO. You can snooze and it's easier to toke on them handmade Cubans out in the bullpen. Hard to do it in the dugout with the manager hangin' around.
February 15, 201511 yr He had 3 losses too. Does that count towards his blown saves? No. A reliever might be charged with a loss if he gives up the go ahead run and his team loses the game but a loss in itself does not represent a blown save. For example, he could enter a tie game in the 9th inning, give up a run and his team fails to score in the bottom of the 9th. He'd get a loss but no blown save because he didn't enter the game in a save situation. If he entered the game with a 1 run lead, gave up 2 runs and his team didn't score then he'd be tagged with the loss and a blown save. On the other hand he could enter the game with a 1 run lead in the top of the 9th, give up a 2 run homer then have his team score 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th. In that case he would get a win--and a blown save.
February 15, 201511 yr You can snooze and it's easier to toke on them handmade Cubans out in the bullpen. Hard to do it in the dugout with the manager hangin' around. Plus he would have to bat after throwing at a guys head which he tends to do a lot of. I just do not get the whole Chapman thing, don't the Cardinals have 3 relievers that hit 100 on the radar. Big deal. I really was wishing the Reds would have dealt him for a SS, young pitching,etc.
February 15, 201511 yr Plus he would have to bat after throwing at a guys head which he tends to do a lot of. I just do not get the whole Chapman thing, don't the Cardinals have 3 relievers that hit 100 on the radar. Big deal. I really was wishing the Reds would have dealt him for a SS, young pitching,etc. Uh no, he does not throw at batters heads a lot. And while Cardinal relievers might hit 100, they aren't nearly as good as Chapman.
February 16, 201511 yr Money well spent. Having Chapman in that role changes the dynamics of a game for both teams. I do believe that he sells as many, if not more, tickets than any single player on the Red's roster. Having said that, I have no idea how many people go to specifically see a current, individual Reds player. I believe that he does provide a bump on the concessions though. There are some folks that hang around to the 9th, just to watch him pitch. There are people around my seats that buy that extra cold one in the 7th, to hold them over to the 9th.
February 16, 201511 yr Im saying I dont like that Walt will be the one handling the trade. How has Walt done with the trades as the GM of the Reds? Well?
February 16, 201511 yr Well? At the trade deadline, terrible. Offseason moves, not much better. Greatest move todate was picking up Simon for cheap, I will give him that one.
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