Why do we suddenly think Sheldon Clark will roll into Salyersville and beat Magoffin County? They are 1-9 and haven't scored more than 14 points since September 12...and that was a 63-20 loss to Pikeville.

 

Am I missing something?

Why do we suddenly think Sheldon Clark will roll into Salyersville and beat Magoffin County? They are 1-9 and haven't scored more than 14 points since September 12...and that was a 63-20 loss to Pikeville.

 

Am I missing something?

Yes. You are missing that Sheldon Clark's schedule is lightyears stronger than Magoffin's and that they have one common oppononent: Betsy Layne.

Sheldon Clark defeated BL by a tune of 59-26.

Magoffin was defeated by Betsy Layne 52-36.

I know comparing scores isn't the best way to predict the winners of games but I would this one is pretty safe. Seen Magoffin play Lewis last week and I'm not exaggerating when I say they are the worst #1 seed I've ever seen.

Why do we suddenly think Sheldon Clark will roll into Salyersville and beat Magoffin County? They are 1-9 and haven't scored more than 14 points since September 12...and that was a 63-20 loss to Pikeville.

 

Am I missing something?

Here is what I would sya the reasoning is...

 

-Magoffin has two losses to 3A teams who failed to make the playoffs in Powell Co and Lewis Co.

 

-Sheldon Clark played a much tougher schedule

 

- Sheldon Clark played Lawrence Co really tight

 

- Breathitt County is the only team from District 7 to beat a District 8 team the past couple seasons and it is pretty clear Breathitt is a shadow of their former self.

 

-As pointed out they share a common opponent in Betsy Layne. Sheldon Clark crushed BL, whereas BL beat Magoffin by two scores.

 

I think it will be a really close game that could go either way.

Anyone giving Holy Cross (Cov) even the slightest chance to beat Walton Verona? HC definitely had a tough schedule. They both played Holmes early in the year.

 

From what I saw on film WV is not built to stop a power run game. HC has a RB who could dominate a ground & pound type of game.

This thread is a prime example of why our system is fine. There will be blowouts but there may also be upsets, and in some cases the upset will be likely.

 

HMMM...So we "think" that maybe 4 teams can upset the 1's. We think that. And one of those seems to be from the super district that we know is always going to have a strong 4.

 

So how many 1vs4 games are there?

How many blowouts will there be?

 

So we're saying that it's good for 4 teams because they get to move on. What about the many many more teams that are going to get completely destroyed. Is it good for them? Because there will me MANY more severe blowouts than upsets. It's never going to be perfect, but you usually want to minimize impact.

 

I understand that even if all 4 win, that means those kids get a chance at a second game and that is great. But I also know that if it was the other way around, I would have no issues telling those 4 team that they should have taken care of business during the season is they wanted playoff games. And again, they would have known that going into the season. They wouldn't be surprised at this time of the year if they didn't "take care of business". They would be saying, "we should have won our district games".

For those of you that weren't on the other thread about this, here's the results from last year's 1vs4 games.

 

 

Here's what I posted:

 

A lot of talk about 4 teams making the playoffs, watered down vs "let them all play". Just some stats.

 

If I counted right...47 1vs4 games tonight...94 teams.

 

Two 4's beat the 1's:

Manual beat Ballard to death (which really isn't an upset when your 4 seed is in the top 8 of the state!)

 

Dunbar beat Tates Creek (a 5-4 one seed taking on a 5-5 4 seed. Both teams played earlier in the year with TC winning 21-20) Not really your typical 1vs4 scenario. More of a weak number 1 from a weak district)

 

Results:

2 upsets (if you count Manual) 4% of the games were upsets.

2 teams pulled off upsets (if you count Manual) 2% of the team pulled off upsets

1 seeds averaged 49 pts

4 seeds averaged 13 pts

Average margin of vicory was 35 (5 touchdowns!)

 

That's even considering that I'm sure many starters in many of the blowouts played very limited time in the second halves of the blowouts and I'm sure several scores for the losing teams came late in the games against reserves. If you take the Manual game out of the equation (41-0) because that's not a real representation of a 1vs4 game, the stats get even a little worse.

 

Results:

1 seeds averaged 50 pts

4 seeds averaged 12 pts

average margin of vicory was 37 (5 touchdowns!)

HMMM...So we "think" that maybe 4 teams can upset the 1's. We think that. And one of those seems to be from the super district that we know is always going to have a strong 4.

 

So how many 1vs4 games are there?

How many blowouts will there be?

 

So we're saying that it's good for 4 teams because they get to move on. What about the many many more teams that are going to get completely destroyed. Is it good for them? Because there will me MANY more severe blowouts than upsets. It's never going to be perfect, but you usually want to minimize impact.

 

I understand that even if all 4 win, that means those kids get a chance at a second game and that is great. But I also know that if it was the other way around, I would have no issues telling those 4 team that they should have taken care of business during the season is they wanted playoff games. And again, they would have known that going into the season. They wouldn't be surprised at this time of the year if they didn't "take care of business". They would be saying, "we should have won our district games".

 

It is all about the American Dream ... opportunity. They all have an opportunity to achieve more. If they had no opportunity, the last couple games of the regular season for the #4 seeds would be meaningless too. Make all the regular season games mean something because you have to get better every week.

It is all about the American Dream ... opportunity. They all have an opportunity to achieve more. If they had no opportunity, the last couple games of the regular season for the #4 seeds would be meaningless too. Make all the regular season games mean something because you have to get better every week.

 

I hear ya! If that's what we want, then let them all in. Don't cut any out. If we did that, I'd be more willing to say "they all start at zero" once the playoffs start. But we don't keep them all. We eliminate some. Where's their American Dream? If we are going with the "American Dream" theory, then we have to let them all in.

I hear ya! If that's what we want, then let them all in. Don't cut any out. If we did that, I'd be more willing to say "they all start at zero" once the playoffs start. But we don't keep them all. We eliminate some. Where's their American Dream? If we are going with the "American Dream" theory, then we have to let them all in.

 

If it could be worked out to get them all in, I am for it - but it can't. It isn't possible logisitically. So you do the best you can to get as many in as you can. You know ... football is different than the other sports so they can't get every team in, like they do in the other sports.

If it could be worked out to get them all in, I am for it - but it can't. It isn't possible logisitically. So you do the best you can to get as many in as you can. You know ... football is different than the other sports so they can't get every team in, like they do in the other sports.

 

Okay, so if a team came to you in our current format and said "My team has been eliminated from the playoffs due to our performance and record during the regular season. But I know that my team is waaaay better than some of the teams that are in the playoffs. My record is better, I played a much tougher schedule and district and all my district losses were by less than 1-2 tds. I (as the coach of that team) can show you several teams with 0-2 wins that were blown out in every game or played a schedule of VERY weak teams to get even their 2 wins." What do you say to that coach?

For those of you that weren't on the other thread about this, here's the results from last year's 1vs4 games.

 

 

Here's what I posted:

 

A lot of talk about 4 teams making the playoffs, watered down vs "let them all play". Just some stats.

 

If I counted right...47 1vs4 games tonight...94 teams.

 

Two 4's beat the 1's:

Manual beat Ballard to death (which really isn't an upset when your 4 seed is in the top 8 of the state!)

 

Dunbar beat Tates Creek (a 5-4 one seed taking on a 5-5 4 seed. Both teams played earlier in the year with TC winning 21-20) Not really your typical 1vs4 scenario. More of a weak number 1 from a weak district)

 

Results:

2 upsets (if you count Manual) 4% of the games were upsets.

2 teams pulled off upsets (if you count Manual) 2% of the team pulled off upsets

1 seeds averaged 49 pts

4 seeds averaged 13 pts

Average margin of vicory was 35 (5 touchdowns!)

 

That's even considering that I'm sure many starters in many of the blowouts played very limited time in the second halves of the blowouts and I'm sure several scores for the losing teams came late in the games against reserves. If you take the Manual game out of the equation (41-0) because that's not a real representation of a 1vs4 game, the stats get even a little worse.

 

Results:

1 seeds averaged 50 pts

4 seeds averaged 12 pts

average margin of vicory was 37 (5 touchdowns!)

Here we go again. You always seem to harp on the 1 vs 4 and the blowouts but always ignore the fact there are blowouts every year in every round including the title games.

Just to give you an idea how many blowouts there are in every round, in 2012 state title games out of 6 games, 3 of them had the winning teams win by more than 40 points.

I hear ya! If that's what we want, then let them all in. Don't cut any out. If we did that, I'd be more willing to say "they all start at zero" once the playoffs start. But we don't keep them all. We eliminate some. Where's their American Dream? If we are going with the "American Dream" theory, then we have to let them all in.

 

We don't weed out too many. A very small % are staying at home this Friday night. In my day the vast majority stayed home. Even teams with 9-1 records were not playing in the first round.

Here we go again. You always seem to harp on the 1 vs 4 and the blowouts but always ignore the fact there are blowouts every year in every round including the title games.

Just to give you an idea how many blowouts there are in every round, in 2012 state title games out of 6 games, 3 of them had the winning teams win by more than 40 points.

 

This thread is about the 4s. I just re-posted my research from last year after round 1.

So who were the #4 seeds that won games on round 1? Manual is one. Were there any others? Was John Hardin a #4 seed?

So who were the #4 seeds that won games on round 1? Manual is one. Were there any others? Was John Hardin a #4 seed?

 

John Hardin was 3 seed, finished 2-2 in district play