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4A Playoff Preview - Gonna party like it's 1999?

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Region 1

 

Year after year, the only thing that has seemed certain in 4A Region 1 was that the team that won last year wouldn't win the next. Since the advent of the six class system it hasn't happened a single time. Seven years, six different champions, none winning back to back. In fact, you have to go back to Hopkinsville's 1999 & 2000 teams in the old AAAA to find the last time it happened. But it would appear this is the year that streak ends.

 

Owensboro got back on the board last year, winning their first region title since 2007 and just their second one since 2001, which qualifies as a long drought for the proud Red Devil program. But head coach Joe Prince and Owensboro exuded confidence coming into this season that they had a team that was going to turn heads and boy did they not disappoint. The Red Devils have mostly romped to a 8-2 record entering the playoffs with impressive victories over Warren Central and Madisonville-North Hopkins. The most eye popping result though was the single loss - a 42-34 loss to Bowling Green. It was the Devil(s) that nearly ended the long Bowling Green win streak as Owensboro led the Purples at halftime and stuck with them to the bitter end. It was then that the state knew they were for real and has had them in the conversation for 4A #1 - they've settled for #2 entering the postseason. Owensboro has the same philosophy as always, which is run, run, run, with a dash of passing if necessary. QB Nick Locher (453 yards), RB Anthony James (685 yards) and RB Rameen Lindsey (373 yards) key an Owensboro ground attack that has rolled up 2,380 yards on the ground through nine games, averaging over 260 per game. Not many have been able to stop their rushing attack, only perhaps slow it temporarily. They're only guaranteed home field advantage for the first two rounds, but they're unbeaten on the road this year. The late season loss to Henderson County perhaps gives some pause, but still, they'll be favored everywhere but perhaps WKU's Houchens-Smith Stadium.

 

Just like last year, the two teams that appear in the best position to challenge Owensboro are District 1 runner-up Madisonville-North Hopkins and District 2 champion Franklin-Simpson. Madisonville has had a few strong wins, blowing the doors off of Henderson County and narrow victories over lower class Paducah Tilghman and Murray. They've already proven that they can play with Owensboro, dropping a close 29-22 game at home that had the home fans complaining about some close calls that didn't break their way. A big loss to 6A power Central Hardin is the only other negative result. Like the Red Devils, the Maroons feature a heavy ground attack, led by athletic senior RBs Jaron White (807 yards) and Ryan Bowman (700 yards). QB TJ Phaup throws a bit more than his Owensboro counterpart, with just over 1,000 yards on the year and 10 TDs through the air.

 

Franklin-Simpson started the year with a bang, defeating heavily favored 5A Graves County 28-26 on August 29th. The Wildcats have followed that with victories over a mostly middling schedule, but did have a nice 21-20 win at 1A top 10 team Russellville. Their only loss was to out of state Battle Ground Academy, meaning Franklin-Simpson is still unbeaten against Kentucky competition. By now it's a broken record but surprise, surprise; the Wildcats do their damage on the ground, amassing 2,747 yards as a team in just 8 games. That's almost 345 yards every game. Two players have over 600 yards in Jerry Billups (who has been banged up late in the season) and Nick Groves. Four other players have topped 200 yards on the season, providing a balanced attack out of the Wing-T.

 

The Wildcats kept it close last year with Owensboro, falling just 21-13 in the region finals at Rash. This year they would get to host that game, if they can make it past a tough Madisonville-North Hopkins first.

 

Region 1 Championship: Owensboro 27 Franklin-Simpson 21

 

 

Region 2

 

Last year Collins ran through the first four rounds - and most of the regular season opponents - like tissue paper. They rode that wave to a surprise victory over Highlands in the state finals, the culmination of a four year build for a senior-laden team - the first class to spend all four years at Collins.

 

But it's a new day and a new year, and their district has caught up to them. Chief among them and our favorite to take the region is North Oldham. The Mustangs are out to a 7-2 record and won their final three district games by a combined 145-0 score. That included a 43-0 shutout of Collins. Their lone blemishes are a hard fought 24-21 loss to 2A #1 Christian Academy-Louisville and a head scratching 21-13 loss to Spencer County that in retrospect prevented them from clinching the #1 seed outright. North Oldham is led by RB Arien Beasley, who has an utterly ridiculous 12 yards per carry on 86 carries, with 20 TDs to boot. That means he's not only averaging a first down every time he carries the ball, but a TD nearly every 4 times he totes it. He's their #2 receiver as well with 19 receptions for 167 yards. The Mustangs have the #1 scoring defense in class 4A, allowing only 9 points per game. A year ago North Oldham fell by a large margin in the region finals to Collins. This year they've flipped the script.

 

Spencer County figures to be the other serious challenger to North Oldham, though Collins may be able to jump up there given the right circumstances. Spencer County did have the 21-13 win over North Oldham and has a very respectable 6-4 record on the year. The Bears rode RB Logan Holbrook on that night to the tune of 30 carries for 284 yards, and that's basically the game plan for the season. Holbrook has 1,302 yards and 19 TDs to lead Spencer County, and will be heavily relied upon in these playoffs. The tiebreakers may have actually done the Bears a favor placing them as the #2 seed, as they'll avoid both North Oldham and Collins until the region finals and have no other team with a winning record in their way on that side. Meanwhile Collins will have a road show in trying to defend their state crown, as they'll likely have no chance to host a game until the state semifinals if they managed to advance that far. They clearly still have some talent with a balanced attack that has gained roughly 1,000 yards on the ground and through the air. They'll open at Western before a probable rematch with North Oldham. They'll have to make up a lot of ground very, very quickly.

 

District 4 doesn't figure to put up much of a fight, as by and large the only wins those teams have on the year are over other teams within the district. It made for an entertaining district race but they will likely not be a threat to win the region.

 

Region 2 Championship: North Oldham 28 Spencer County 13

 

 

Region 3

Since the KHSAA changed the playoff structure in 2008 it has been déjà vu all over again for Class 4A, Region 3. It seems like the one constant you can always count on is the annual rematch between Boyle County and Lexington Catholic in the regional finals the third week of the playoffs. While these two teams have had one of the closest district rivalries in Kentucky, their playoff battles have been even closer. There is no reason to believe that 2014 will be any different. Boyle County and Lexington Catholic are the favorites once again, and are ranked 5th and 6th in the BluegrassPreps.com rankings.

 

Last season was the lone exception as Mercer County stepped forward and upset Boyle County in the 2nd round for their first trip to the regional finals since winning the 2A title in 2006. Lexington Catholic won that game for its 3rd consecutive regional title in convincing fashion after finishing runner up to Boyle the previous 3 years.

 

Boyle County enters the playoffs with a 9-1 record, their only loss coming to Lexington Catholic 26-17 in early October. Jr. QB Josiah Robbins has been a leader for the Rebels, throwing for 1200 yards and rushing for more than 500 more through 9 games. Sr. RB Aidan Stewart-Hoskins leads the team in rushing with 1071 yards and 20 touchdowns, while Robbins’ favorite receiver has been Sr. Keagon Hinkle, who has caught 31 passes for 326 yards.

 

Lexington Catholic had 3 early losses to 5A power Bowling Green and 6A Bryan Station and Lafayette. Since then they have been unstoppable, reeling off 6 straight wins to finish the regular season 7-3. Highly touted Sr. QB Reese Ryan has been impressive, throwing for over 220 yards per game, a total of 2000 yards through the air. Ryan’s favorite targets have been Juniors Andy Thompson and Joseph Ogbogu, who have each caught 38 passes for 641 and 536 yards respectively. The balanced Lexington Catholic offense has also rushed for a little over 1800 yards with Jr. RB Jalen Jones toting the pigskin for 1300+ yards, which is about 150 per game average.

 

The most likely challenger to these two teams appears to be District 6 champion Knox Central. The Panthers enter the playoffs with a record of 8-2, their losses coming to a pair of 3A powerhouse rivals, Corbin and Bell County. Knox Central opens the playoffs with a home game against Taylor County. If they are to win the region, they would have to win that game, and then eliminate Boyle County and most likely Lexington Catholic in succeeding weeks. That would be a tall order for any team.

 

Region 3 Championship: Boyle County 24 Lexington Catholic 17

 

 

Region 4

 

Fort Thomas Highlands has a stronghold on Region 4 which makes them the prohibitive favorite from year to year. That is no different in 2014 as the Bluebirds breezed through their district competition unscathed, winning those games by a combined score of 124-20. Highlands’ streak of 6 consecutive state championships was broken last season when they lost a heartbreaker in the finals to Collins 37-34.

 

 

The 2014 Bluebirds enter the playoffs with a 8-2 record with their only losses coming to out of state powers Columbus Florida 38-34 and Cincinnati Elder 49-35. They have been battle tested and no doubt are a little hungry after the loss in the title game last season. Leading the way has been Sr. signal caller, QB Beau Hoge. Hoge has thrown for nearly 2300 yards and rushed for an additional 400 in leading Fort Thomas to a very successful season. Hoge’s main target has been Sr. Alex Veneman, who has caught 58 passes for 1050 yards and an impressive 16 touchdowns. The Birds will likely have to travel to Johnson Central for the regional championship; however a home rematch with Covington Catholic is also possible.

 

Johnson Central finished the regular season a perfect 10-0 by posting impressive victories over Ashland Blazer 42-7 and defending 3A state champion Belfry 35-0 in consecutive weeks. The Golden Eagles have continuously been close, but not close enough in Class 4A. Their two NKY counterparts in Region 4 have eliminated them from the playoff picture each year with Highlands being the most consistent thorn in their side. Johnson Central has been impressive this year and they feel like they have a legitimate shot at knocking off Highlands in the regional finals. The Golden Eagles are led by shifty Sr. QB Bryce Workman and a stable of big, strong backs. They have a big play threat in Sr. WR Dalton Adkins, who has shown the ability to be a game changer. One of the biggest weapons is Jr. K/P Tyler Pack, who owns a state record for longest FG and consistently puts kickoffs into the end zone.

 

Covington Catholic looks to be the spoiler of the Golden Eagle parade, as they will likely make the trip to Paintsville in week 2 in hopes of earning a spot against Highlands in the regional final. The Colonels have not reached the semifinals since winning the 3A state championship in 2006. Will 2014 be the year they finally break this drought?

 

Region 4 Championship: Highlands 40 Johnson Central 20

 

 

Semi-Finals: Owensboro 42 North Oldham 21

Semi-Finals: Highlands 35 Boyle County 14

 

State Championship: Highlands 49 Owensboro 14

 

*Preview complied by BGP Staff Members

Great Coverage. Don't totally agree with every game result but you can also be dead on.

Good recap! I'll take it!

I don't think any of us HHS fans have any issues with that RU. I appreciate the information on the contenders. Some very good info!

  • Author

ttt

Excellent write-up.

District 4 won 3/4 games last night. Very good effort.

 

District 4 doesn't figure to put up much of a fight, as by and large the only wins those teams have on the year are over other teams within the district. It made for an entertaining district race but they will likely not be a threat to win the region.

 

Region 2 Championship: North Oldham 28 Spencer County 13

BGP is 5 of 8 in their regional picks. Misses are:

 

Madisonville-North Hopkins over Franklin Simpson

Fairdale instead of Spencer County

Covington Catholic over Johnson Central

District 4 won 3/4 games last night. Very good effort.

 

District 4 doesn't figure to put up much of a fight, as by and large the only wins those teams have on the year are over other teams within the district. It made for an entertaining district race but they will likely not be a threat to win the region.

 

Region 2 Championship: North Oldham 28 Spencer County 13

 

He will have the Region champ correct, MLC had their issues with some off the field things plus youth, SC was decimated by injuries at the end of the year. Wasn't a real good region this year but North Oldham is a really good team and I believe will be in the state championship game.

The Lexington Catholic win keeps BGP from picking all 4 of the final four in this class.

The Lexington Catholic win keeps BGP from picking all 4 of the final four in this class.

 

It's Guru picking it so of course he can't say anything positive about Lex Cath.

It's Guru picking it so of course he can't say anything positive about Lex Cath.

 

Ease up. Gotta call it as you see it and I believe he had one data point in NKY.

 

This region has not been kind to Guru. In 2012 he picked Russell County and Knox Central to be the in finals.

 

http://bluegrasspreps.com/ky-football-high/2012-kentucky-high-244234.html

It's Guru picking it so of course he can't say anything positive about Lex Cath.

Guru doesn't "Pick" the rankings or the playoff winners. BGP has a very knowledgable staff, that draws upon information obtained from around the state, that takes care of that. And, if you're unhappy with Lexington Catholic not being "Picked" to win, you should be upset with some people closer to home.

 

But, congratulations to Lexington Catholic for winning and moving on in their quest for a State Championship.

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