August 8, 201412 yr ESPN has their projected postseason odds at 39%. So you're saying there's a chance?
August 8, 201412 yr It is almost exactly the same as it was last week. If the Brewers play basically .500 baseball over their last 47 games the Reds have to go 28-19. If the Brewers continue to win at their .548 clip the Reds have to go 30-17 which is a .638 percentage--no one in baseball has a winning percentage that high. That is why those projections are relevant this late in the season in regards to each team's playoff chances. ESPN has their projected postseason odds at 39%. How many times with about 50 games left has a team come from 4 games or more behind to win a division? Is that where the 39% number comes from?
August 8, 201412 yr So you're saying there's a chance? Chance? Lloyd Christmas would call that a sure thing. :lol2:
August 8, 201412 yr The Brewers (like the Reds) are prone to streaks of futility. The Reds picked up 4.5 games in 7 days on the Brewers just before the All Star game. I do not think it likely that the Reds bust out at anything close to a .638 winning percentage. I think it more likely (although not probable) that the Brewers stumble allowing the Reds to get within striking distance of the division.
August 8, 201412 yr I discount these "have to win at a .638 clip" almost completely. If the Reds win their next 3 and the Brewers lose all three, then what do the numbers say? Like I have said before, it is like people who go crazy after game 7 of college football because of what the BCS says. Then 3 games later it all works its way out. Still too early for me to give up on the Reds chances.
August 8, 201412 yr How many times with about 50 games left has a team come from 4 games or more behind to win a division? Is that where the 39% number comes from? That's playoff chances, not the chances of winning the division. That includes getting the last wildcard spot.
August 8, 201412 yr Can someone run that calculation for me again on what winning percent the Reds need to play at to catch the Brewers? I discount these "have to win at a .638 clip" almost completely. If the Reds win their next 3 and the Brewers lose all three, then what do the numbers say? Like I have said before, it is like people who go crazy after game 7 of college football because of what the BCS says. Then 3 games later it all works its way out. Still too early for me to give up on the Reds chances. So you asked a rhetorical question?
August 8, 201412 yr So you asked a rhetorical question? When contemplating the N.L. Central, does anybody really know what time it is? Does anybody really care?
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