Polcanco had the ball before Santiago even reached 3rd base. It was beyond stupid to send him. Polcanco is a 5 tool player, and Smith should have known his arm strength. Bases loaded nobody out and Meso coming up. Even my 11 year old daughter knew it was a stupid decision.

 

If that throw is one foot to the right, Santiago is safe.

On that dribbler to the outfielder' date=' I "take the bat out of his hands" every time. Every time. Like I said, odds are 80% Santiago scores. Odds are 40% that Mesoraco gets the run home from 3rd. Easy decision.[/quote']

 

Where in the world did you come up with those odds? Like I said Polanco had the ball before Santiago had even reached 3rd base. Any outfielder with a decent arm throws out anybody not named Billy Hamilton or Mike Trout 90% of the time there.

If that throw is one foot to the right' date=' Santiago is safe.[/quote']

 

If that ball is 10 feet higher and 200 feet longer it's a walk off 3 run HR, but neither happened and it was a stupid decision.

If that throw is one foot to the right, Santiago is safe.

 

Then he would have only been out by 2 steps instead of 3.

Lefty on the mound who throws nothing but fastballs. No one warming in the pen. You sit tight and put it in the hands of Meso.

You think it is 80% a guy scores rounding 3rd against a MLB level RF from 250 feet? Throw wasn't perfect, Martin made great scoop and Santiago was out by 3 steps. 50% at best Santiago scores. 88% you get run home from 3rd with 0 out and bases loaded. 45% with 2 on and 1 out...

 

Good stats. What is the stat for getting the run home from 3rd, bases loaded, 0 out in the bottom of the last inning? I bet it drops quite a bit, but it probably is higher than the 40% number I guessed.

 

I strongly disagree that wasn't a perfect throw. Right on target, one hop like you are taught to do it from Knothole baseball on up. And it was a bullet. If the throw is one foot to Martin's right, Santiago is safe.

 

I find it ironic that Loogy was saying Bruce should bunt, which if he is successful takes the bat out of Mesoraco's hands exactly like Santiago getting thrown out did. With sending Santiago, there was a good chance he scores. If you bunt Bruce, there is zero chance Santiago scores.

On that dribbler to the outfielder, I "take the bat out of his hands" every time. Every time. Like I said, odds are 80% Santiago scores. Odds are 40% that Mesoraco gets the run home from 3rd. Easy decision.

 

Where are these percentages coming from? It's 80% chance he scores when the right fielder has the ball as he touches 3rd?

Good stats. What is the stat for getting the run home from 3rd, bases loaded, 0 out in the bottom of the last inning? I bet it drops quite a bit, but it probably is higher than the 40% number I guessed.

 

I strongly disagree that wasn't a perfect throw. Right on target, one hop like you are taught to do it from Knothole baseball on up. And it was a bullet. If the throw is one foot to Martin's right, Santiago is safe.

 

I find it ironic that Loogy was saying Bruce should bunt, which if he is successful takes the bat out of Mesoraco's hands exactly like Santiago getting thrown out did. With sending Santiago, there was a good chance he scores. If you bunt Bruce, there is zero chance Santiago scores.

 

I could see it both ways in that situation. Ludwick has to get the job done, but it was still not a great decision to send Santiago.

You guys really think the runner should have been held up on Bruce's hit? That thought never crossed my mind. Even if he gets thrown out, it is the same as if you sacrifice bunt because you end up with runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out. The ball was a grounder through the infield. It took a perfect rocket throw to get him. They made the play. Tip your hat. I send the runner every time on that ball and he will get thrown out at best 2 of 10 times.

 

They didn't listen to me, but I told him to stay at third. :lol2:

 

Ball was hit sharply and the RF got to it quickly. Plus, Meso is up. Hamilton is the only Red I send in that situation.

The only way percentages work is before the pitch is thrown. Once it's in play they don't matter whatsoever.

Good stats. What is the stat for getting the run home from 3rd, bases loaded, 0 out in the bottom of the last inning? I bet it drops quite a bit, but it probably is higher than the 40% number I guessed.

 

I strongly disagree that wasn't a perfect throw. Right on target, one hop like you are taught to do it from Knothole baseball on up. And it was a bullet. If the throw is one foot to Martin's right, Santiago is safe.

 

I find it ironic that Loogy was saying Bruce should bunt, which if he is successful takes the bat out of Mesoraco's hands exactly like Santiago getting thrown out did. With sending Santiago, there was a good chance he scores. If you bunt Bruce, there is zero chance Santiago scores.

 

If it was a bang bang play, you'd have a point. Santiago was out by 10 feet and every basic rule says you hold the runner. It was a ball fielded from 250 feet as the runner touched 3rd, and against a guy with a rocket arm. We'd be belly laughing at the Pirates if they sent a guy on Bruce in the exact situation. Why? Because that was a routine play for a RF and C 9 times out of 10...

Polcanco had the ball before Santiago even reached 3rd base. It was beyond stupid to send him. Polcanco is a 5 tool player, and Smith should have known his arm strength. Bases loaded nobody out and Meso coming up. Even my 11 year old daughter knew it was a stupid decision.

 

I just watched the video again. Santiago was 4 steps around 3rd when Polanco released the throw.

 

After watching the video, several times, the only thing that makes me reconsider sending him is GT's stat that 88% of the time a team scores with the bases loaded and no outs. That stat does not factor in extra innings. I would like to see the percentage in bottom of the ninth through extra innings. I am sure it drops significantly. However, it looks like the probability of scoring without sending him and with sending him are closer than I first stated.

Edited July 13, 201412 yr by Voice of Reason

Oh well, wake up tomorrow and beat them, it's like tonight never happened. That's why you gotta love baseball

I just watched the video again. Santiago was 4 steps around 3rd when Polanco released the throw.

 

Who cares where he was when he released the throw. A thrown ball from that distance beats the runner every time.

^ So he's not even to 3rd yet correct?