That stat is saying that BP saved his team 1 more run over the entire length of the season compared to the average 2nd baseman?

 

Over the course of an entire season, yes.

 

To illustrate how every play is measured, an example:

 

Every single play is assigned a probability factor (in terms of what % of ML 2B would make that particular play), and each of those probabilities is multiplied by the # of bases saved or given up on that particular play. Each position is also assigned a "factor", which is used to determine the number of runs either saved or allowed based on the number of bases saved or allowed. 2B had a factor of .76. So if BP makes a play that 23% of all 2B make, he will get a +0.77 for making the play, and let's also say that the average number of bases a hitter gets when the play is not made is 1.5. Phillips making the play saves the Reds 1.155 bases. You take that and multiply it by the run factor assigned to 2B (.76), and BP making that play has just saved the Reds .8778 runs.

 

When you take every play over the course of the season made or not made by BP and net them out, he ended up as a +1, meaning he saved the Reds 1 run. By comparison, Mark Ellis of the Dodgers, led all 2B with a +12.

It is all about the contract with Phillips. Isn't that ironic? The contract he begged for, then complained about is what is going to be the end of him in Cincinnati. If it were just about productivity, the Reds would laugh in the face of anyone who asked about BP's availability.

You're also not able to discern the game through your pupils. So there's that.

 

I'd rather be able to use my brain to make decisions. :idunno:

While this pertains to the BP situation it's really a general question regarding defensive statistics.

 

How are they compiled? Especially considering all outs are not equal. Is an out just considered an out? Is an out that few 2nd baseman make valued any higher than a traditional 2 hop ground ball?

 

Here's my problem with trying to compile that data. You will never know what would've happened if a player gets on base because he didn't make a play. He made the play, therefore the pitchers approach is different. That completely changes things. Is the pitcher better from the wind up or the stretch? Is the next batter a run producer or not? Was the hitter a stolen base threat? Is he more or less of a SB threat because of the pitcher or catcher? Will there be a pitching change? Who was left on deck? The 4 hitter? Is he hot? Is it Allen Craig? Was the pitcher on deck and now will lead off the inning? How many guys were on base?

 

It seemed like there was at least a play a week in the top 10 from BP. Not one other infielder, and maybe player, made as many spectacular plays. Why are plays spectacular? Because few others can make them. What does that make him? More valuable defensively. It would be different if he booted routine balls on a regular basis but he doesn't.

 

Those compiling statistics are much smarter than I, I get that. I just want to know how they can predict what may have happened if a player got on base if a play wasn't made.

^All those things are factored into the formulas and equations used to calculate the statistics for DRS.

While this pertains to the BP situation it's really a general question regarding defensive statistics.

 

How are they compiled? Especially considering all outs are not equal. Is an out just considered an out? Is an out that few 2nd baseman make valued any higher than a traditional 2 hop ground ball?

 

Here's my problem with trying to compile that data. You will never know what would've happened if a player gets on base because he didn't make a play. He made the play, therefore the pitchers approach is different. That completely changes things. Is the pitcher better from the wind up or the stretch? Is the next batter a run producer or not? Was the hitter a stolen base threat? Is he more or less of a SB threat because of the pitcher or catcher? Will there be a pitching change? Who was left on deck? The 4 hitter? Is he hot? Is it Allen Craig? Was the pitcher on deck and now will lead off the inning? How many guys were on base?

 

It seemed like there was at least a play a week in the top 10 from BP. Not one other infielder, and maybe player, made as many spectacular plays. Why are plays spectacular? Because few others can make them. What does that make him? More valuable defensively. It would be different if he booted routine balls on a regular basis but he doesn't.

 

Those compiling statistics are much smarter than I, I get that. I just want to know how they can predict what may have happened if a player got on base if a play wasn't made.

 

I now see how they are compiled.

^All those things are factored into the formulas and equations used to calculate the statistics for DRS.

 

That's my point. How? You can't predict the outcome of each scenario. Everyone understands that some outs are more important than others and the DRS can't possibly predict which one's those are.

 

Serious question, do you really believe that after all of those crazy plays BP made, including barehanded DP's from his knees, that he only saved the Reds one run all season? Not what a nerd from MIT told you may have happened. Do you really believe that?

 

I'm not even arguing at this point. I'm simply concerned.

I'd rather be able to use my brain to make decisions. :idunno:

You know what, I lied. I'll argue.

A. The eyes are fed directly by the brain by the optic nerve which, ironically is in the shape of an X. I'm guessing yours is in the shape of the DNA helix

2. If indeed your brain fed your opinion of the defensive runs saved stat, you'd realize how generic and ambiguous the input of info on that stat truly was.

D. Let's see how well this season goes without BP in the 4 spot in the defensive book and then we can reminisce about when we got to watch(some of us anyway) the best defensive 2B since Robbie Alomar then lament how the staff ERA has risen because the next guy there can't get to the balls BP gets to routinely.

That's my point. How? You can't predict the outcome of each scenario. Everyone understands that some outs are more important than others and the DRS can't possibly predict which one's those are.

 

Serious question, do you really believe that after all of those crazy plays BP made, including barehanded DP's from his knees, that he only saved the Reds one run all season? Not what a nerd from MIT told you may have happened. Do you really believe that?

 

I'm not even arguing at this point. I'm simply concerned.

 

I expected it to be a bit higher, yes, but not much. For as many great plays as he makes, he makes a lot of boneheaded decisions, even in the field.

You know what, I lied. I'll argue.

A. The eyes are fed directly by the brain by the optic nerve which, ironically is in the shape of an X. I'm guessing yours is in the shape of the DNA helix

2. If indeed your brain fed your opinion of the defensive runs saved stat, you'd realize how generic and ambiguous the input of info on that stat truly was.

D. Let's see how well this season goes without BP in the 4 spot in the defensive book and then we can reminisce about when we got to watch(some of us anyway) the best defensive 2B since Robbie Alomar then lament how the staff ERA has risen because the next guy there can't get to the balls BP gets to routinely.

 

There's no point in arguing with you. You'd die before you ever admitted that statistics have a place in measuring baseball performance, and would rather resort to personal jabs than have a real debate on the topic.

^All those things are factored into the formulas and equations used to calculate the statistics for DRS.

 

There's another defensive runs saved stat that shows Phillips as the 2nd best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Pedroia. How do we know that the DRS stat is more accurate than Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average? In the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards(which I know you're also a fan of) he was ranked the 5th best 2nd baseman in MLB. I would think that would make him a better fielder than 1 run over the average 2nd baseman.

 

I get that his contract and clubhouse presence are negatives and he certainly isn't an ideal 4 hole hitter--but it isn't his fault that he was put in that spot. Unless the Reds can take the money saved and bring back Choo or lock up Bailey I don't think replacing Phillips will have a positive effect on the Reds lineup.

There's another defensive runs saved stat that shows Phillips as the 2nd best 2nd baseman in baseball behind Pedroia. How do we know that the DRS stat is more accurate than Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average? In the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards(which I know you're also a fan of) he was ranked the 5th best 2nd baseman in MLB. I would think that would make him a better fielder than 1 run over the average 2nd baseman.

 

I get that his contract and clubhouse presence are negatives and he certainly isn't an ideal 4 hole hitter--but it isn't his fault that he was put in that spot. Unless the Reds can take the money saved and bring back Choo or lock up Bailey I don't think replacing Phillips will have a positive effect on the Reds lineup.

 

There's about 10 different DRS stats, at least from what I've seen. The one I'm quoting is the one that appears to be the most straight-forward. Also, I already said I thought he'd have been higher, and that he's great defensively.

 

As to the second part, he's a cancer in the clubhouse, has an albatross contract, and isn't an ideal fit for anywhere in a lineup. His poor OBP makes it hard to put him anywhere else in their lineup as it's currently constructed. Also, his age has to be a factor that is seriously considered. His best years are well behind him. Move him now, while they can still get at least a couple prospects for him.

I would take Brandon Phillips on the Braves any day, bad contract and all.

 

 

He's a solid hitter, speed, and great defensively.

I would take Brandon Phillips on the Braves any day, bad contract and all.

 

 

He's a solid hitter, speed, and great defensively.

Speed? This ain't 2009...

Speed? This ain't 2009...

 

 

 

Still more speed than most any current Braves possess so that'll still work..:lol2: