Reds fans are already livid that he takes too many pitches anyway. He has no issues taking pitches and hitting from behind in the count. He's actually the perfect two hitter if Hamilton hits first.

 

This World Series has shown exactly why you have to hit a great hitter 2nd. Beltran was up as the tying run in game 4 as the 2 hitter until the rookie stupidly got picked off first. Last night the 2 hitter was so bad that they pinch hit for him in the 9th so two guys combined for the 4 plate appearances while Beltran never got up in the 9th. It's pretty simple, there just aren't enough people that understand the data to do it yet.

 

I honestly don't think it is that they just don't understand the data. It's the mystique of being the 3 hitter. Large contracts and the "best hitter" have always hit 3rd. They'll need to change that culture before they convince a Votto, Cabrera...etc. to hit 2nd. JMO.

I honestly don't think it is that they just don't understand the data. It's the mystique of being the 3 hitter. Large contracts and the "best hitter" have always hit 3rd. They'll need to change that culture before they convince a Votto, Cabrera...etc. to hit 2nd. JMO.

The data has holes. Situational hitting is never measured appropriately. Ever.

The data has holes. Situational hitting is never measured appropriately. Ever.

 

Right. As I said, over the course of a season the math may work, for the most part. However, there's not measurement for sack.

..............

 

The basic knock on Joey Votto, in this town, is always going to be percentage of salary cap he eats up. If I had 25 sales people on staff and could only afford to pay them a total of $2,500,000 in commissions (an average of $100,000 per rep), and decided to give one of them $625,000 and the other 24 had to average $78,125, how well do you think that would work. Especially when I'd probably have several making over $100k, that average drops decidedly and I'm stuck with a ton of entry level folks instead of 25 quality influencers. As that one rep would go, my entire operation would go. Morale would stink. I wouldn't be able to keep good reps because they'd never be able to push their income, especially compared to the dude / dudette making $625k. Just would always be fundamentally flawed.

 

Therein lies Joey Votto and the Reds from 2016 to 2023. Uh oh. I don't care how good he is, and by 34 he isn't going to be in his prime, the system (at $108 million [or so]) is flawed.

Yes, but MTGL, as you said, the system doesn't work that way. You know it. I know it. And more importantly, the players know it. It's not about what you'll be able to do in the future that determines the majority of your salary...it's what you've already done that determines your next contract. That's why a Mike Trout made just $510,000 dollars this year. But, you can bet that's going to go through the roof when his next contract comes up. Devin Mesoraco made roughly the same as Trout, and his number will go up too, but nowhere near the same. That's why you usually see a bump in output when a player is in their final year of a deal. They know if they put up improved numbers, not only are they going to get paid...but paid higher than they may be worth over the length of the deal. I don't like it. But, we as fans have encouraged it by continuing to play the owners' games of higher ticket prices, higher concessions, etc. The more we continue to support their "support system"...then the more we're going to see this.

Yes, but MTGL, as you said, the system doesn't work that way. You know it. I know it. And more importantly, the players know it. It's not about what you'll be able to do in the future that determines the majority of your salary...it's what you've already done that determines your next contract. That's why a Mike Trout made just $510,000 dollars this year. But, you can bet that's going to go through the roof when his next contract comes up. Devin Mesoraco made roughly the same as Trout, and his number will go up too, but nowhere near the same. That's why you usually see a bump in output when a player is in their final year of a deal. They know if they put up improved numbers, not only are they going to get paid...but paid higher than they may be worth over the length of the deal. I don't like it. But, we as fans have encouraged it by continuing to play the owners' games of higher ticket prices, higher concessions, etc. The more we continue to support their "support system"...then the more we're going to see this.

 

With you on all of that, and had they let him walk the fans in Cincy would have imploded. However, someone has to be the adult and tell Bob "Fan" Castellini "no". That deal just doesn't work in this market, it isn't like the Angels with their $175+ million payroll. This year's cap was, I believe, $108M, and they aren't able to go pull more money in this market from TV and radio, so their only way of increasing payroll is raising tickets, selling more tickets, or taking a loss.

I honestly don't think it is that they just don't understand the data. It's the mystique of being the 3 hitter. Large contracts and the "best hitter" have always hit 3rd. They'll need to change that culture before they convince a Votto, Cabrera...etc. to hit 2nd. JMO.

 

Why would someone you're paying $250M over the next 10 years need convinced to hit 2nd? Shouldn't he hit where he's told?

 

Also the last manager didn't understand the math or he would never have said it's called hitting not walking. The current GM really doesn't understand it either or he wouldn't have said some of the things he said recently. Both of those guys were old school like some of the current fans who just don't get it yet.

The data has holes. Situational hitting is never measured appropriately. Ever.

 

What needs to be added to the data to account for situational hitting? It is largely ignored b/c it's largely a fluke. BP isn't ever going to hit .260 again but hit .320 with RISP more than likely. It all evens out in the end.

What needs to be added to the data to account for situational hitting? It is largely ignored b/c it's largely a fluke. BP isn't ever going to hit .260 again but hit .320 with RISP more than likely. It all evens out in the end.

Oh, maybe the 2hole hitter taking a pitch to give Hamilton a chance to swipe one. Or maybe once he does, hitting behind him to get the runner to third. Avg goes down with RISP but that doesn't tell the tale. I could go on but doubt I'd make a dent.

 

You saying its a fluke really speaks volumes.

Why would someone you're paying $250M over the next 10 years need convinced to hit 2nd? Shouldn't he hit where he's told?

 

Also the last manager didn't understand the math or he would never have said it's called hitting not walking. The current GM really doesn't understand it either or he wouldn't have said some of the things he said recently. Both of those guys were old school like some of the current fans who just don't get it yet.

 

It simply doesn't work that way. Not my opinion, it just doesn't work that way.

 

And here's my problem with "the math". Everyone in baseball thinks Jocketty is one of the best in the game but "the math" says he doesn't know what he's doing. Again, the math doesn't tell the whole story.

What needs to be added to the data to account for situational hitting? It is largely ignored b/c it's largely a fluke. BP isn't ever going to hit .260 again but hit .320 with RISP more than likely. It all evens out in the end.

 

You have been spewing absolutes quite a bit to defend the lack of situational hitting stats with "more than likely". Again, it's why math doesn't work 100% of the time.

You have been spewing absolutes quite a bit to defend the lack of situational hitting stats with "more than likely". Again, it's why math doesn't work 100% of the time.

 

I'll bet you as much as you want that BP never hits 60 points higher with RISP than he does on an entire season if he plays close to a full season. You want to bet that?

It simply doesn't work that way. Not my opinion, it just doesn't work that way.

 

And here's my problem with "the math". Everyone in baseball thinks Jocketty is one of the best in the game but "the math" says he doesn't know what he's doing. Again, the math doesn't tell the whole story.

 

The Jocketty part is your opinion. He's not been that good here and the Cards are pretty happy they don't have him anymore. They're in far better shape for the future than the Reds. The Reds have some terrible contracts.

SCC I will agree with your summation that much of what JV does is ideal for the two slot. Where your whole argument begins to fall apart is that you do not believe in situational hitting, but that is exactly what makes a team successful. Barry Larkin was a very good hitter who spent time as a 1,2,&3 hitter. At each assignment he changed his approach to fit the assignment(and teams needs.) Within a game he changed his approach to fit the situation. Even BP, who has been criticized for selfishness, has learned to adjust his approach based on batting slot. He even learned to cut down his swing with two strikes. Situational hitting is real. Where JV will fail in the two hole is that he does not pull the ball. Two hitters are often asked to pull the ball to move runners and to sacrafice themselves to move runners. JV has flat out said that he will not change his get on base approach to drive in a run so just how is that going to work if he is asked to sacrafice himself just to move a runner over?

More importantly, no team pays a guy 20 million to bat second. You don't take a high dollar guy and make him a two and use inferior talent at three. You bat your best at three because the things that are required of a three are reserved for those with the most talent. JV is the most talented guy on the roster and is being paid what he is paid to produce in the three hole, not the two , or whatever he thinks is best for him.

I love the guys dedication and effort to continuously improve, but he requires someone to provide direction and Dusty did not get that done. That more than anything is why he is gone. You better believe that a requisit for the next manager was the ability to fix this problem.

The Jocketty part is your opinion. He's not been that good here and the Cards are pretty happy they don't have him anymore. They're in far better shape for the future than the Reds. The Reds have some terrible contracts.

 

It's not my opinion. Hence, "everyone in baseball...". I hear it all the time on MLB Network, Baseball Tonight and read it in plenty of articles.

 

Those aren't my opinions.