May 29, 201313 yr If a student loan default does occur, while it will not be good, I question if it will have the same degree of negative pull down on the economy. When the mortgage defaults occured, they drug down the housing market with it due to the housing market being flooded with homes people lost on default. And let's face it, what item are people so emotionally attached to that when its value comes crashing down, it has a huge affect on their consumer confidence and consumer spending? Their home. And even people who stayed on top of their mortgage saw the value of their homes going down also, in many cases, less that the balance of the mortgage. If/when the student loans defualt, I don't see it having such a huge ripple affect throughout the economy. Not saying it will not hurt the economy, just don't see it hurting nearly as bad. Technically, you can not 'default' or wipeout student loans through bankruptcy. So I am not sure they plan to open debtors prisons or not on this matter. The government holds the (empty) bag on these now after taking over the programs from the banks. The yin-yang relationship between the banks and the government at its best. The banks dumped these 'toxic assets' to avoid the 'housing bubble' issue. Now the government is stuck. But at the interest rates being charged (over 2x a current mortgage rate) and given that for higher income (above $100K) families the interest starts immediately the return for government will be great - assuming they can recover a majority of the funds. But that is unlikely. A couple of years a ago I had a discussion on a long plane ride with a guy who got his MBA from a brand name school. He made decent money and relatively young guy with an MBA. But his student loans were well over 6 digits and he could not even afford a house. His student loans were his 'house payment'. Even he questioned if it was worth it.
May 30, 201313 yr Hate to be a Debbie Downer... First-Quarter Growth Revised Down as Jobless Claims Jump - WSJ.com [h=1]First-Quarter Growth Revised Down as Jobless Claims Jump[/h] WSJ
May 30, 201313 yr Hate to be a Debbie Downer... First-Quarter Growth Revised Down as Jobless Claims Jump - WSJ.com First-Quarter Growth Revised Down as Jobless Claims Jump WSJ We know. :lol2:
May 30, 201313 yr I am sitting in a NFPA economic conference this morning. Consumer confidence and spending good right now, but business confidence low and companies hoarding investment cash awaiting signals regarding taxes and government reaction to budget issues. Consumer spending expected to want 2014 when new taxes and healthcare realities hit the consumer. Somewhat of a down cycle this year and next, but not severe...driven by uncertainty. Expected moderate improvements 2015 - 2017. Some of the US issues, particular currency valuation are less visible now due to bigger problems in Europe and Japan. This is from the professionals.
June 4, 201313 yr I am sitting in a NFPA economic conference this morning. Consumer confidence and spending good right now, but business confidence low and companies hoarding investment cash awaiting signals regarding taxes and government reaction to budget issues. Consumer spending expected to want 2014 when new taxes and healthcare realities hit the consumer. Somewhat of a down cycle this year and next, but not severe...driven by uncertainty. Expected moderate improvements 2015 - 2017. Some of the US issues, particular currency valuation are less visible now due to bigger problems in Europe and Japan. This is from the professionals. Neither of the bolded are terribly surprising to me.
June 4, 201313 yr I lost a nice $100,000+ pharma job after 7 years so not real confident. I don't know how anybody can be confident with all the idiots and corruption leading our country. Our healthcare is a trainwreck! You can't provide free healthcare. It comes from somewhere. When small business is forced to provide healthcare it takes its toll. They end up not hiring instead of paying. Baby boomers retiring will be more strain. Research+development for new medicine will be cut because of Obamacare. I feel good that I busted my rear to get a Master's degree, real estate license etc giving me many doors open. It's painful to watch my coworkers with families squirm because they had no insurance fallback options. Arguably biggest cut in our fine companies history!
June 4, 201313 yr I am sitting in a NFPA economic conference this morning. Consumer confidence and spending good right now, but business confidence low and companies hoarding investment cash awaiting signals regarding taxes and government reaction to budget issues. Consumer spending expected to want 2014 when new taxes and healthcare realities hit the consumer. Somewhat of a down cycle this year and next, but not severe...driven by uncertainty. Expected moderate improvements 2015 - 2017. Some of the US issues, particular currency valuation are less visible now due to bigger problems in Europe and Japan. This is from the professionals. Many businesses are probably waiting to see how Obama Care finally rolls out.
June 4, 201313 yr Many businesses are probably waiting to see how Obama Care finally rolls out. I'm excited for Obama to roll out of office. Scared for what might replace him. That's why I have my practice for sale. I may go work on an Indian reservation. Trade extractions for peyote. Probably have to move to Colorado for that.
June 4, 201313 yr Saturday was my 30th anniversary with the company I work for. I was not confident that I'd get there and I'm less confident that I'll get to my 31st.
June 4, 201313 yr Saturday was my 30th anniversary with the company I work for. I was not confident that I'd get there and I'm less confident that I'll get to my 31st. I'm sorry to hear that Swampy
June 4, 201313 yr Some high profile names Q1 misses on revenue: Target - "Sales rose 1 percent to $16.7 billion, trailing the $16.8 billion average estimate." Link Dell - Revenue down 2% YTY for Q1. Link Intel - "Intel's semiconductor sales in the first quarter were US$11.56 billion, a 3 percent drop from the $11.87 billion in the first quarter of 2012." Link HP (note - HP's fiscal is offset from calendar): "Hewlett-Packard Co.'s (HPQ) fiscal second-quarter earnings slipped 32% as the technology company recorded revenue declines across its segments, though core profits beat its expectations." (Classic headlining profits over revenue drop!). Link IBM - "Total revenues of $23.4 billion were also below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24.5 billion." Note that IBM revenue was $24.7B for Q1 2012. So revenue missed estimate and was over $1B lower in Q1 2013 than Q1 2012. Link Sears - "Revenue fell 9 percent to $8.45 billion, missing the $8.74 billion forecast by Thomson Reuters analysts." Link Walmart - "Sales rose 1 percent to $113.43 billion. That figure excludes Sam's Club membership fees. The results fell short of Wall Street expectations for earnings of $1.15 per share on (estimated - my add) revenue of $115.78 billion. Wal-Mart reported a 1.4 percent drop in revenue at stores open at least a year at its namesake business, its first drop in a year and a half." Though sales were up (barely) they missed target by over $2B! Link GM - "Net revenue in the first quarter of 2013 was $36.9 billion, compared to $37.8 billion in the first quarter of 2012." Down YTY by almost a $1B. Link Some more with local flavor. Lexmark - "Revenues declined 10.9% year over year......On the other hand, Lexmark showed strength in keeping its operating cost down [note - when revenues are down - highlight the gross profit - which means lower cost and reduction in workforce].....Guidance for the second quarter and fiscal 2013 was not encouraging" Link Dow Corning - "Dow Corning Corp. recently reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2013. The company reported sales of $1.26 billion and net income of $62.1 million for the first quarter of 2013. Sales and adjusted net income were down 17% and 6%, respectively, compared to 2012." - Link
June 5, 201313 yr I drive A LOT in NKY/Cincy/SE IND area (somewhere around 40,000k miles/year). Today I was driving in parts of Cincy that were booming 3 years ago and are absolute ghost towns now. As some others have said, my personal confidence is high...but that is all i can speak for.
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