While your "full throated endorsement" of Morris' critics is right?

 

Hmmm.

 

So you believe that all of the polling data is inaccuarte? You believe that 100% of undecideds will break for Romney?

I guess it doesn't matter anyway since he based his argument on Obama polling below 50% in key states. I guess since he's now over that figure in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Iowa and Virginia it doesn't matter.

I guess it doesn't matter anyway since he based his argument on Obama polling below 50% in key states. I guess since he's now over that figure in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Iowa and Virginia it doesn't matter.

 

Keep telling yourself that.

Keep telling yourself that.

 

I will and you keep grasping that Rasmussen straw.:thumb:

I will and you keep grasping that Rasmussen straw.:thumb:

 

Rasmussen (& Morris) predicted the thrashing that the Dems took in 2010. How did your favorite pollsters do?

Rasmussen (& Morris) predicted the thrashing that the Dems took in 2010. How did your favorite pollsters do?

 

I recall most pollsters (of any stripe) seeing that one coming a mile away. It's not like they were predicting Villanova over Georgetown or NC State over Houston.

I think the debates will be the turning point for Romney. The race is much closer than some of the polls indicate. I agree with Morris on that that point. Romney needs to show he's superior to Obama on economic issues, which he is. The economy is the main focal point for most Americans. We'll see a Romney surge after the debates. Ryan should chew up Biden in their debates as well.

I had to wait about half an hour in 2000. Every other time has been about five to ten minutes.

This has been my experience. In 2000 I waited for like 3 hours.

I recall most pollsters (of any stripe) seeing that one coming a mile away. It's not like they were predicting Villanova over Georgetown or NC State over Houston.

 

It's probably also worth pointing out that Rasmussen's polling was among the least accurate in 2010 as well. The average distance between their polls and the final vote count was about 5.8%, whereas Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Public Policy Polling were all under 4%. Not to mention, reputable pollsters like Gallup overestimated Republican performance too. This is to say that the notion that polling data is the result of some liberal conspiracy is hackish, to put it politely. It also isn't to say that Rasmussen does bad work, necessarily, but it's simply become evident over the years that their polls tend to favor Republicans by 3-4%, likely because they don't do cell phone surveys (younger people tend to favor Democrats and are more likely to only use cell phones and older folks are likely to be accessible via landline). This Republican lean thus made them the Truth according to some, which is also silly, especially when it's actually made their polls less accurate.

Pretty sure Pew and Rassmussen were the most accurate polls in 2008, hitting it right on the nail. I don't believe too many were off that year though.

It's probably also worth pointing out that Rasmussen's polling was among the least accurate in 2010 as well. The average distance between their polls and the final vote count was about 5.8%, whereas Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Public Policy Polling were all under 4%. Not to mention, reputable pollsters like Gallup overestimated Republican performance too. This is to say that the notion that polling data is the result of some liberal conspiracy is hackish, to put it politely. It also isn't to say that Rasmussen does bad work, necessarily, but it's simply become evident over the years that their polls tend to favor Republicans by 3-4%, likely because they don't do cell phone surveys (younger people tend to favor Democrats and are more likely to only use cell phones and older folks are likely to be accessible via landline). This Republican lean thus made them the Truth according to some, which is also silly, especially when it's actually made their polls less accurate.

 

I wondered about the "cell phone factor" with respect to polling.

 

And while I've gotten plenty of political advertisements via landline, I've never received one via cell.

Pretty sure Pew and Rassmussen were the most accurate polls in 2008, hitting it right on the nail. I don't believe too many were off that year though.

 

Here's the final breakdown.

 

 

This is the point though: these are professional polling firms, not talk show pundits. Their value as a firm is in their accuracy, not telling people what they want to hear. We shouldn't be inventing some alternative reality just because it's what we want to see. That doesn't mean the election is over a month away from voting, but polls are a decently accurate picture of what's trending in the present. Take it for what it's worth.

I wondered about the "cell phone factor" with respect to polling.

 

And while I've gotten plenty of political advertisements via landline, I've never received one via cell.

 

They do calls in two ways. Some use a giant database basically copied from the phone book they randomly call. Some randomly generate numbers and call them until they get a large enough sample (this gets unlisted numbers and cell phones). Some do a little of both. Since it's really impossible to know how many people are being missed because of the landline/cell discrepancy, most pollsters try to weight each number based on their best guess as to what the actual population looks like. Some are better than others at it.

Here's the final breakdown.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]37631[/ATTACH]

 

This is the point though: these are professional polling firms, not talk show pundits. Their value as a firm is in their accuracy, not telling people what they want to hear. We shouldn't be inventing some alternative reality just because it's what we want to see. That doesn't mean the election is over a month away from voting, but polls are a decently accurate picture of what's trending in the present. Take it for what it's worth.

 

Thanks, that looks like the chart I had seen a while back.

Here's the final breakdown.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]37631[/ATTACH]

 

This is the point though: these are professional polling firms, not talk show pundits. Their value as a firm is in their accuracy, not telling people what they want to hear. We shouldn't be inventing some alternative reality just because it's what we want to see. That doesn't mean the election is over a month away from voting, but polls are a decently accurate picture of what's trending in the present. Take it for what it's worth.

I appreciate the chart.

 

Where did you get that? I would like to see their poll results 1-2 months out, but this time of the 2010 election, not McCain/Obama.