Boy it sounds like I missed a lot of fun on here last night but I had time this morning to catch up since I got to bed early. Oh well it looks like I missed a great second half of the game. A couple of things that I want to comment on based on your guys thoughts.

 

* It is great to see that Bailey settled down and took control. To me that shows a little maturity that he can start off rough and get it together. You always heard the experts say that about the great pitchers that you better get them early before they settled into their routines.

 

* I would like to see Baker go to Rolen and talk to him about becoming a bench player for the rest of the season but I don't see Dusty having the guts to approach the subject. Maybe Rolen can be the guy that broaches the topic. Frazier playing everyday couldn't be any worse than Rolens' pitiful offensive output and Rolen could be a great guy to bring off the bench for a need offensively or defensively.

 

* I'd like to see Meso get a few more starts but I know how pitchers can be with their favorite battery mates. I just don't like Hanigan at the plate in RBI situations. While he is a great contact guy he just doesn't seem to be producing runs like he should.

 

* I think Cairo is also showing huge signs of age. Every team needs a great utility guy on their bench but he seems to have lost a lot. Pitchers look unafraid to challenge him with the fastball and he doesn't seem to be able to catch up to it anymore much like Rolen.

 

* Stubbs has got to come out of the 2 hole. If he is going to play everyday, which I really question at this point, then he needs to be down at the bottom somewhere where he doesn't have to "think". That seems to be a big problem for him. I get so frustrated watching him take 2 strikes and then being at the pitcher's mercy and looking foolish on a spinning pitch.

 

* One last thing. It was good to see that Bruce made a great catch especially after that major blunder in Frisco. Defense has never been a problem for him. I like Jay Bruce a lot and hope that he can just get over the hump of looking like a career .250 hitter

It seems like some have a tough time grasping the concept of a baseball game, and season, is a marathon and not a sprint. You would've thought Bailey gave up 8 in the first two innings.

It seems like some have a tough time grasping the concept of a baseball game, and season, is a marathon and not a sprint. You would've thought Bailey gave up 8 in the first two innings.

 

People tend to do that with pitchers that don't show any consistency.

It seems like some have a tough time grasping the concept of a baseball game, and season, is a marathon and not a sprint. You would've thought Bailey gave up 8 in the first two innings.

 

Homer is certainly a lightning rod. Part of that comes from him either being really good or really bad. When he's bad he's bad. However, by my count he has a 2:1 really good/really bad ratio. If he can get his really bad to "so so" it will be huge.

 

He has 11 QS.

People tend to do that with pitchers that don't show any consistency.

 

Last night was simply an example. Check the older threads, it's an epidemic.

Homer is certainly a lightning rod. Part of that comes from him either being really good or really bad. When he's bad he's bad. However, by my count he has a 2:1 really good/really bad ratio. If he can get his really bad to "so so" it will be huge.

 

He has 11 QS.

 

I know that a lot of people like to throw that Quality Start number out there in regards to Homer. However, with the decline in offense I think it needs to be looked at a little bit deeper. The National League's ERA as a whole is 3.96 so far this season. A Quality Start is given when a pitcher throws at least 6 Innings and allows 3 or fewer Earned Runs. If a pitcher only satisfies the minimum criteria for a quality start then they will have an ERA of 4.50 for that game. That is a full half a run higher than the league ERA. A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA for the season is considered to be well below average.

 

Two of Homer's 11 Quality Starts fall into that category and in another he pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 3 Earned Runs which is a 4.26 ERA for that game. In one of his other Quality Starts he pitched 6.2 innings while allowing 3 runs for an ERA of 4.05 which is just barely over league average. If you take that into account Homer has made 16 starts, in 9 of them he has produced an ERA higher than league average. In only seven of his starts did he produce an ERA that was better than league average. That is why he is viewed as so inconsistent.

I view him as inconsistent when he leaves belt high fastballs over the plate on an 0-2 count. Last night he had command of his breaking stuff. Located pitches well.

I know that a lot of people like to throw that Quality Start number out there in regards to Homer. However, with the decline in offense I think it needs to be looked at a little bit deeper. The National League's ERA as a whole is 3.96 so far this season. A Quality Start is given when a pitcher throws at least 6 Innings and allows 3 or fewer Earned Runs. If a pitcher only satisfies the minimum criteria for a quality start then they will have an ERA of 4.50 for that game. That is a full half a run higher than the league ERA. A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA for the season is considered to be well below average.

 

Two of Homer's 11 Quality Starts fall into that category and in another he pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 3 Earned Runs which is a 4.26 ERA for that game. In one of his other Quality Starts he pitched 6.2 innings while allowing 3 runs for an ERA of 4.05 which is just barely over league average. If you take that into account Homer has made 16 starts, in 9 of them he has produced an ERA higher than league average. In only seven of his starts did he produce an ERA that was better than league average. That is why he is viewed as so inconsistent.

 

Well done I agree with everything you said here.

I'm not a huge believer in ERA numbers either. If your pen brethren donate inherited runners, it hangs around your neck. Clouds quality outings may times. A tidy bullpen makes starters ernies much nicer to behold.

I'm not a huge believer in ERA numbers either. If your pen brethren donate inherited runners, it hangs around your neck. Clouds quality outings may times. A tidy bullpen makes starters ernies much nicer to behold.

 

This

I know that a lot of people like to throw that Quality Start number out there in regards to Homer. However, with the decline in offense I think it needs to be looked at a little bit deeper. The National League's ERA as a whole is 3.96 so far this season. A Quality Start is given when a pitcher throws at least 6 Innings and allows 3 or fewer Earned Runs. If a pitcher only satisfies the minimum criteria for a quality start then they will have an ERA of 4.50 for that game. That is a full half a run higher than the league ERA. A pitcher with a 4.50 ERA for the season is considered to be well below average.

 

Two of Homer's 11 Quality Starts fall into that category and in another he pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 3 Earned Runs which is a 4.26 ERA for that game. In one of his other Quality Starts he pitched 6.2 innings while allowing 3 runs for an ERA of 4.05 which is just barely over league average. If you take that into account Homer has made 16 starts, in 9 of them he has produced an ERA higher than league average. In only seven of his starts did he produce an ERA that was better than league average. That is why he is viewed as so inconsistent.

 

He got the Reds through the 6th and into the 7th, 8th, or 9th giving up 3 runs or less 11 times thus far. That will work in most cases. For comparison, Latos has 4.

 

In today's game the job of the pitcher is to get through 6. The specialists take over after that.

MLB average is 4.3 runs per game so I'd take my chances for 3 innings with the Reds bullpen vs the other team with a 1 run lead any day of the week.

MLB average is 4.3 runs per game so I'd take my chances for 3 innings with the Reds bullpen vs the other team with a 1 run lead any day of the week.

 

Be that as it may an ERA of 4.50 is still almost a half a run higher than league average. The Quality Start stat is very misleading when applied to Homer. In over half of his starts he has produced an earned run average worse than the league average. That is a big reason why he has only a 6-6 record with his 11 "Quality Starts."

 

Having a 1 run lead after six is fine but since the Reds offense is right at the league average it would be a coin flip as to whether they would have that one run lead after 6. Hence Bailey's 6-6 record and the team's 8-8 record in his starts. In this case the Quality Start stat lies while the peripheral numbers give the true account of a wildly inconsistent pitcher.

Many fans would probably be thrilled to have Ryan Zimmerman as the everyday 3rd Baseman even though he is really scuffling this season...Now I know that Ryan Zimmerman was just 21 Years old in his Rookie Campaign and Frazier is 26, however in terms of numbers only Frazier is very comparable...Zimmerman finished 2nd in ROY Voting in 2006 behind Hanley Ramirez, If Rolen stays out Frazier has a good chance to finish 2nd behind Bryce Harper this year...Zimmerman played only 67 Games in the Minors before making it to the Bigs, that's due to a combination of how bad the Nats were but also how good of a prospect that Zimmerman was...The Reds on the other hand have had Rolen since 2009 thus making it impossible for Frazier to make it up sooner...Frazier was tearing it up in the Minors at age 22/23 and had he been on a different team might have been promoted earlier just like Zimmerman so I'm not comparing ages, at this point numbers are all that matters in terms of helping the team...What Zimmerman did at a very young age was very impressive...Both guys were 1st Round picks, Zimmerman was picked 4th Overall and Frazier was picked 34th Overall...

 

They are almost the same age Frazier is 26 and Zimmerman is 27 and Frazier is having arguably a better year as a Rookie than Zimmerman is having as a an 8 year Vet...Zimmerman is a Former All Star and 2x Silver Slugger award Winner...Frazier is older than most Rookies but like I said he actually did what he needed to do in the Minors as a 22/23 Year Old but was blocked by Rolen...I think Frazier is very unappreciated not necessarily by everyone on here but just by Reds fans in general...In 2010 what Rolen did is considered to be a huge reason that the Reds made it to the postseason, Frazier is doing practically the same this year without everyday consistent playing time...Frazier is possibly a Top 5 3rd Baseman in the NL...Frazier isn't as good as Zimmerman overall and would have never had the success of Zimmerman had he been promoted earlier, but he is as vital to this years Reds team as Freese was last year for the Cards...

 

Ryan Zimmerman thru 54 Games in his Rookie Season:

229 PA, 27 R, 55 H, 11 Doubles, 1 Triples, 9 HRs, 33 RBIs, 20 BBs, 48 Ks, .267 AVG, .328 OBP, .461 SLG, .789 OPS

Todd Frazier thru 54 Games in his Rookie Season:

180 PA, 18 R, 45 H, 12 Doubles, 5 Triples, 8 HRs, 27 RBIs, 16 BBs, 46 Ks, .278 AVG, .344 OBP, .562 SLG, .906 OPS

Ryan Zimmerman thru 54 Games this year:

238 PA, 29 R, 48 H, 10 Doubles, 0 Triples, 3 Hrs, 22 RBIs, 20 BBs, 42 Ks, .222 AVG, .292 OBP, .310 SLG, .600 OPS

 

Todd Frazier thru 174 College Games:

694 ABs, 210 R, 241 H, 51 Doubles, 8 Triples, 42 HRs, 152 RBIs, 65 SBs, 138 BBs, 136 Ks, .347 AVG, .458 OBP

Ryan Zimmerman thru 174 College Games:

704 ABs, 128 R, 250 H, 47 Doubles, 7 Triples, 7 HRs, 140 RBIs, 32 SBs, 53 BBs, 60 Ks, .355 AVG, .405 OBP

Edited July 3, 201214 yr by nkufan23

Good pitching matchup tonight. Capuano has been very good this season, and we all know how good Cueto has been.