Dino

These are probably the most ridiculous team ratings that I have seen this season. Maybe Johnson Central is no better than the 25th best team in the state, but I am absolutely sure that there are more than 18 teams better than Bethlehem - and I intend no disrespect for Bethlehem, which is having a great season. I admit that I have not registered to read the methodology used to compile the rankings, but it is difficult to imagine a system in which Franklin County could have a "movement" of +6 following a loss to East Jessamine and Johnson Central could have a movement of -11 following a blowout win against Greenup County. Even if the "movement" indicates the opposite of what I think that it does, those big week to week swings just don't make any sense this late in the season. Aside from the top 4 teams, I think that I could take a chimp and a dartboard and do about as well.

Johnson Central vs. Ashland Blazer Campbell County vs. Dixie Heights Henderson County vs. Owensboro Henry Clay vs. Lafayette Marshall County vs. Warren Central St. Xavier vs. Male Graves County vs. Christian County

Each team holds the other to its lowest point total of the season, as they did last season: 34 Johnson Central 15 Ashland

Actually, I didn't. I just failed to state my own rhetorical question clearly enough. There is no point in having a limit on the maximum enrollment for each of the classes if it is going to be ignored. Kentucky should either have a class system (three or four would have sufficed) or eliminate the class system entirely. Setting upper and lower limits for the classes and then arbitrarily allowing teams to play up in class makes no sense.

Then Hoover is nowhere near as good as Warren Central. If Trinity could hang within 33 points of Warren Central this season, it would be a very respectable showing.

Most of North Laurel's scoring deficit can be attributed to its 34 point loss to Johnson Central. Bryan Station also lost to an undefeated Lafayette team by 8 points. Are you absolutely sure that Corbin, with its two wins, is better than Bryan Station. I'm not. If Johnson Central's schedule spells trouble for the Golden Eagles in the playoffs, then maybe they will be fortunate enough to play Rockcastle in the regional finals. If so, then the two teams' weak schedules should cancel each other out.:lol:

I also failed to list the scores of every game that each team played that season - because it was not relevant to the point that I was making. That point was that Jim Matney coached teams have been very tough defensively in the seasons that Sheldon Clark had talent available. Matney has more athletes to pick from now that he is coaching at a school with a larger enrollment and he has not forgotten how to teach players to play defense. Given Rockcastle's own weak schedule, I would have expected a Rockcastle fan to be the last one to cast stones at Johnson Central's schedule. :lol: I don't think that anybody from JC has claimed that its schedule is anything but underwhelming. JC's remaining district schedule is tougher than Rockcastle's remaining schedule, so in the end there will be very little difference in the two teams' regular season strength of schedule. Yet, I have heard nobody suggest that the Rocks' schedule will be its undoing in the playoffs. Suggestions that JC can't win the region because of its regular season schedule. Both teams are in the hunt for the regional title, as are Ashland and Bell County, and comments to the contrary are nonsense.

I am not the one who questioned Johnson Central's strength of schedule, nor am I the one who commented on the Golden Eagles' traditionally poor playoff performance (despite this year only being Matney's third at the helm). Either playoff games are special and place added pressure on players or they aren't. You can't argue both sides of that coin.

I don't agree with the KHSAA allowing any team to "play up." What's the point of a class system if all a school's enrollment numbers do is stop a team from "playing down?" That being said, it is sad that any school would complain about having to play other schools with smaller enrollments. Larger schools that cannot take advantage of their intrinsic numbers advantage have noone but themselves to blame.

Last season's 13-10 loss to the Tomcats followed by the quick playoff exit thanks to Madison Southern caused enough pain for several seasons.:lol: I don't think this year's team will get caught overlooking anybody - if they lose it won't because of overconfidence. That was a very talented LC team in '99. You are right about the year, but I was wrong about the score. Sheldon Clark beat Lawrence 18-16 and the Bulldogs lost to Highlands 76-36. Those were the only two games that LC scored fewer than 40 points that season. I was thinking about SC's 7-6 loss to Rockcastle the following year in the regional championship game. That was the fewest points that Rock scored in any game that season. Matney is a great defensive coach and anybody who expects that the Golden Eagles will be pushovers defensively are in for a shock. Matney's record prior to coming to JC is much more relevant to what can be expected of the Golden Eagle football program than what the program was like prior to his arrival in 2004.

I look for a low scoring game. Bell County was 3 points better than Corbin, and the Rockets were 2 points better, so... 14 Bell County 13 Rockcastle County

In two games against a 2A Corbin team that is currently sporting a 2-5 record, Rockcastle and Bell have scored a combined 19 points! I would not be so sure that either the Bobcats or Rockcastle could match the Golden Eagles' offensive firepower if they had played the same schedule as Johnson Central. Also, I am not so sure that JC's strength of schedule at the end of the regular season will not be stronger than Rock's. Rock's SOS certainly is nothing to write home about.

Was Matney coaching Sheldon Clark the year that Lawrence Co. beat them 7-6 before losing big to one of Highlands' best teams? I don't remember the year, but I think Chuke Williams was coaching and the Bluebirds won big, but the 'Dogs scored quite a few points in a losing effort. As I recall, both LC and SC had teams that would have had good shots at state titles in most years, but they had the misfortune of playing in the same year that Highlands might have fielded its best team ever.

All last season, people from around the state ripped JC for its weak schedule and suspect defense. What people failed to notice was that in two late season games, a very young Johnson Central defense held Ashland to 13 points and Mason County to 14 points. Shortly afterwards, Rockcastle held Ashland to 14 points and Mason County to 19 points in playoff games. Granted, Johnson Central did cough the ball up early and often in giving up 35 points in its first round loss to Madison Southern, but that was the first playoff game in which any of those players had participated. The upside of JC's weak schedule, if there is one, is that Matney has not needed to reach very deep into his bag of tricks to win games so far. He will also have two full weeks to prepare for Ashland and I suspect that the Tomcats see a few formations and plays that they will not see in any game tapes or scouting reports. On the subject of weak schedules, I am still puzzled how Middlesboro was able to put 60 points more on the board against Corbin than the Rockets did. I know that a win is a win, but the Rockcastle game was Corbin's best defensive showing of the season. Are the Yellowjackets that good, or is the Rock really down this year? (Massey saw the score and recorded the game as a forfeit! :lol: )

I don't think most people around the state would view an Ashland win on the road against JC as a major upset. In fact, if the game makes the Pick 10 list, I expect that many people have bought the weak schedule arguments and will pick the Tomcats to win on the road at Johnson Central. The fact that the winner of the first Tomcat/JC matchup will play the rematch, assuming that there will be one, on its home field makes a sweep much more likely. I know that is obvious to Ashland and JC fans, but I am not sure that it is obvious to people less familiar with the two teams' schedules and playoff prospects. Regardless of which team wins the regular season game at Johnson Central, I think a sweep of the two games is more likely than a split. It is very tough to lose a home game and then win a rematch on the road only a couple of weeks later.

The winner of the first game will most likely play the second game at home. That will make sweeping both games a little easier for whichever team wins the first game, but a letdown in that second game will be of great concern for the regular season winner.

You yourself said in a previous thread that Ashland's "line was outplayed on both sides" by the Rams and many Tomcat fans were very discouraged by the team's poor showing at home, including Dickie. Maybe "manhandled" was too strong a word. Let's just say that the Rams "handled" the Tomcats by controlling the line of scrimmage and holding their own at the skill positions. Raceland is much improved this season, but Ashland blew them out last season and lost to them at home this season. Belfry is a notoriously slow starting team and do not seem to be as strong as the past few Pirates teams, yet Ashland struggled to beat them at home. Russell is also a little weaker than last season, but managed to take the Tomcats into overtime in Putnam. This is not one of Ashland's better teams. Last season, the Tomcats and Golden Eagles held each other to the fewest points either scored all year (Russell also held Ashland to 13 points). This year's JC defense is much better. This year's Tomcats defense is not as good as last season. Ashland's offense is not as good as last season and JC's offense has improved overall. If the Tomcats win beat JC in Paintsville, it will be a major upset, IMO. Ashland is down this year, but is still the second best team in the district.

If Hazard beats Paintsville in their regular season match-up, the Bulldogs will play two games. If the Tigers manage to beat Hazard at Hazard, the Bulldogs will play one game. Nobody in the district is going to knock off Pikeville this season, and I think that the Panthersdefense will power them to the regional ttle.

If Johnson Central is going to be caught looking ahead to a future opponent, this will be the week that it happens. Greenup County may hang around for a half, but if they do, Matney will adjust attitudes at halftime and the Golden Eagles should dominate the second half. I am going to say Johnson Central 35-12, as JK Ratliff shakes the rust off in his first extended action in weeks, and JC provides a glimmer of hope to the Tomcat and Royals faithfull.

Sell. A team that got manhandled by a good, not great, 1A Raceland team will not be making a deep run in the playoffs, IMO. That being said, Ashland is good enough to play the spoiler role for anybody who makes the mistake of taking a win against them for granted. If the regional title game constitutes a "deep run" in the playoffs, then Ashland is one upset away from making a deep run. The Tomcats have very little chance of upsetting Johnson Central and then upsetting either Rockcsastle or Bell for the regional title the following week.

Johnson Central's present coach has been on board 2+ seasons after taking over a 1-9 team that won 5 games in the three years prior to Matney's arrival. In his first season, Matney led the Golden Eagles to a 7-3 season while competing in a 4A district and narrowly missing the playoffs. Last season, the Golden Eagles were upset in the first round of the playoffs. Matney's Sheldon Clark teams were never known for being soft or shying away from competition. Tying how the Golden Eagles fared before 2004 to the current team's single playoff appearence seems pretty silly to me. JC fans understand that the schedule does not compare favorably to those of many of the "traditional powers." That is a fair criticism of the program - but to hold this group of players and this coaching staff accountable for what happened before most of them were even a part of the program makes no sense. Bill Musick had a couple of very good JC teams before he left the program. However, those teams relied heavily on one or two key players. Depth, special teams, and pass defense were weaknesses in most years. JC now has a respectable kicking game, more depth than ever before, and a solid pass defense. Most past JC teams have also been very one-dimensional, even when they had athletic quarterbacks with great arms. JC is (or will be when JK Ratliff returns to the line-up) much more balanced offensively and is at least capable of using the pass to keep defenses honest. Two sophomore quarterbacks have filled in ably for Ratliff and the Golden Eagles leading rusher, Shawn Music, is only a junior. This is still a young team. Johnson Central is the team to beat in the district this season. Ashland is good enough to upset them (Mason may be as well) if the Golden Eagles don't take care of the ball better than they did against Madison Southern last season, but I like their chances of reaching the regional championship game. (I am not close enough to the program to know much about the future schedule, but I understand that Matney has been trying to beef it up. As weak as this season's schedule is, it is tougher than the one that the Golden Eagles played last season, IMO. I would like to see him dump Paintsville, but I suspect that the guys in the JC BOE office are enjoying the annual paybacks too much for that to happen. )

You have not read me defending the schedule. The schedule is stronger than last season, but it is hard to argue that the Massey 118th ranked is anything but weak. My point is that other teams, including Rockcastle, have played relatively weak schedules in past seasons and acquited themselves pretty well in the playoffs. Anybody who dismisses JC based solely on its schedule without digging a little deeper may be shocked at what might happen when that schedule stffens in a few weeks. Johnson Central has not gone from a 1-9 record to a team with a good shot at an undefeated regular season and its first regional title simply by watering down its schedule. There are good reasons why JC has suddenly begun to name the score against Paintsville, why every poll and computer ranking system have the Golden Eagles in the top 10, why a new stadium with turf and an indoor practice facility are planned, and why fans are packing the stadium for home games in unprecedented numbers. Bell, Rockcastle, Johnson Central, Ashland, and Mason County are all very well coached football teams. (I don't mean to slight any of the other coaches in the region - I am just not as familiar with their records). It is possible that JC may fumble away the opening round of the playoffs again, but the days when most regional titles are decided by Rockcastle and Bell County are over. The region's champion will be decided on which coach has more to work with in a given year, and Jim Matney will have plenty to work with for at least the next two or three seasons.

So do you think that Rockcastle will have an easier time because its schedule ranks 111? There are four teams with a legitimate shot of winning a regional title. JC must beat Ashland and either Bell or Rockcastle. Rockcastle must beat Bell and Ashland or JC. There is an excellent chance that both Rockcastle and JC will be playing in the regional title game and I don't hear anybody criticizing the Rock's weak schedule.

Hoover has dropped to #9 in the most recent USA Today rankings following a 28-14 loss to John Curtis of Louisiana. I agree with the earlier comment about Indy Warren Central. If there is a better team in the country I would like to see them. Warren Central is underrated, IMO, at #7. They are a senior laden team sailing through the regular season and seem to be headed for a fourth consecutive Indiana 5A state title. Among the Warriors wins is a 61-12 trouncing of 3-time Illinois 8A runner-up Maine South and a 76-7 win over archrival Indianapolis Ben Davis. Ben Davis would be a serious contender for a 4A state title in Kentucky this season, IMO, despite the margin of loss to Warren Central.

Better sell now before the Tomcats meet JC. Nobody will be buying the Tomcats' chances a month from now.:lol: