Nathaniel Bryan

Before clicking on the link and looking at the thread title ONLY, I was assuming it was 2-0 by forfeit, which would be crazy for: 1) Team to forfeit a scrimmage 2) Other team demand to have an official "2-0 scrimmage forfeit" victory

Good catch. Missed that one. Although it will be interesting to see what happens with South Warren.

Try clicking on either of these two directly (they are sized to fit on one page LANDSCAPE: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHCYrf_XgAAcque.jpg http://bluegrasspreps.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=63249&d=1502568875

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: KHSAA WEEK 1 BOWL SCHEDULE COMPILED BY NATE BRYAN (@NATEINSPORTS) ==================== FRIDAY, AUGUST 18TH ==================== adidas Kickoff Classic at Tates Creek Henry Clay at Tates Creek, 6 p.m. Bryan Station vs. Lafayette, 8:30 p.m. -------------------- Don Marshall Bowl at Pulaski County Jeffersonville, IN at Pulaski County, 6 p.m. Northwest (Clarksville, TN) vs. Southwestern, 8:30 p.m. -------------------- First Priority Bowl at North Laurel South Laurel at North Laurel, 7:30 p.m. -------------------- Forcht Bank Bowl at Campbellsville University Metcalfe County vs. Taylor County, 5:30 p.m. Adair County vs. Green County, 8:30 p.m. -------------------- LPFAA Hall of Fame Bowl Farmers National Bank at Garrard County Powell County at Garrard County, 7:30 p.m. -------------------- PBK Death Valley Bowl at Lincoln County Clay County at Lincoln County, 6 p.m. Bourbon County vs. Somerset, 8:30 p.m. -------------------- Scottie Bowl at Glasgow Trigg County vs. Monroe County, 5:30 p.m. Russellville at Glasgow, 8 p.m. -------------------- VisitNich.com Bowl at East Jessamine Walton-Verona at East Jessamine, 6 p.m. West Jessamine vs. Lloyd Memorial, 8:30 p.m. ==================== SATURDAY, AUGUST 19TH ==================== Bob Allen Pigskin Classic at Danville Woodford County vs. Wayne County, 6 p.m. Frederick Douglass at Danville, 8:15 p.m. -------------------- Forcht Bank Bowl at Campbellsville University Allen County-Scottsville vs. Hart County, 5:30 p.m. Campbellsville vs. Washington County, 8:30 p.m. -------------------- King of the Bluegrass Bowl at Fairdale Holy Cross (Louisville) vs. Bullitt Central, 5 p.m. Shelby County at Fairdale, 8 p.m. -------------------- Little Caesars Ft. Harrod Bowl at Mercer County Boyle County vs. John Hardin, 5 p.m. Harrison County at Mercer County, 8 p.m. -------------------- Montgomery County Rec Bowl at Montgomery County Breathitt County at Montgomery County, 7:30 p.m. -------------------- Rafferty's Bowl at Western Kentucky University Central Hardin vs. Northeast (Clarksville, TN), 6 p.m. Bowling Green vs. North Hardin, 8 p.m. -------------------- Roy Kidd Bowl at Madison Central Collins vs. Madison Southern, 5:30 p.m. Lexington Catholic at Madison Central, 8 p.m. ====================

Neither Western Hills or Paducah Tilghman were top-10 locks when looking at the CJ, LHL, BGP and CalPreps rankings at the same time. IIRC, neither Western Hills or Paducah Tilghman even appeared in 2-of-4 polls. Fleming County is likely an 11-20 team and might sneak into the top 10, but the bottom of the top 10 changes week by week. So missing an "others receiving votes" isn't that big of a deal. If Fleming winds up in the top 7 or so (jumping the consensus top 7 of Belfry-Corbin-Russell-LexCath-Central-Etown-Boyle), then I'll gladly eat some crow. Not sure why the huff about a team likely not to crack the top 7, though. It's like arguing about a 20-13 NCAA basketball team that missed the final No. 12 seed.

Mark Brown teams are always pretty solid at stopping the run. Teams which can pass -- pass when they WANT to, not when they NEED to, at least -- can churn up the yards. Surprising as this is to say, BOTH teams kind of need this as they were both coming off big seasons last year and want to show they're not flukes. I'm from Hardin County, but I'm picking F-S in this one. Don't think by a lot, though. Believe this one will be competitive.

Fairdale's school athletic twitter feed said Fairdale was down to QBs #4 and #5 against John Hardin. Could be something to watch, especially if there are bad snaps or things seem out of sync.

Not sure about North Hardin's kicking situation. So I figure the Trojans will get 6 before they get 3. IIRC, North Hardin beat Spencer County, a fringe top-10 team in its class with a D-I FBS player, like 33-12 in its scrimmage. Bowling Green is awfully good. Not taking anything away from the Purples. But I would NOT be shocked if North Hardin keeps it out of running clock territory.

Don't doubt the Ads can't knock off a bigger school. Certainly CalPreps (which had Freddy D ranked dead last in its class) thinks this one will be over by halftime. And like you said in a different thread, not to get too excited about scrimmages (Freddy D waxing GRC). I'm thinking this game is competitive, at least early. If the Ads beat the Stallions like a dead horse -- see what I did there? -- more power to you. Kudos for going out on that limb early.

Not sure. I know during March Madness, look up the "Bracket Matrix." That thing charts so many projected brackets, it's crazy. But you get an idea of where experts think the teams will be seeded. I kind of did this, starting out at least, to show how Cal Preps was NOT that crazy. Go back and check that thread and people ripped Cal Preps' rankings hard. As it turns out, they knew what they were doing. More impressive? They were the FIRST to put their rankings out there (and most everyone followed suit). They weren't wrong; they were before their time. I also did this for radio/TV/writers/bloggers to have more data to use in their previews/recaps/stories.

Thanks! As you can tell from some of my other posts, I'm big on lists/charts/data.

I don't think it's that surprising, and here's why: 47 of the 60 were locks. Teams in the top 10 in all four rankings. The 13 differentials come near the bottom of the poll, which is natural. Some top-10 teams in one poll were likely a 11 or 12 in another. Plus, there's nothing too radical out there. I think the "craziest" thing was South Warren being fourth in one poll, but I think some coaches forgot South Warren changed classes.

State's already been in Lexington (at various high schools) for the past few seasons. If Douglass has the newest turf and the best stadium with sufficient parking, I doubt anyone will be against it.

When each poll/ranking/rating list was released, each one had its detractors. But when you combine all into one, you'll see that they are all pretty similar. There were four rankings that did each class for the state: Bluegrass Preps, Courier-Journal COACHES, Herald-Leader COACHES and CalPreps. In 1-A, only 13 teams had a top-10 ranking and seven appeared in all four. In 2-A, only 11 teams had a top-10 ranking and nine appeared in all four. In 3-A, only 15 teams had a top-10 ranking and seven appeared in all four. All four polls had at least one team (Waggener for CJ, Garrard County for LHL, Tilghman for BGP and both Casey County and Fleming County for CalPreps) not appear in the other three top-10s. In 4-A, only 12 teams had a top-10 ranking and eight appeared in all four. Two teams appeared in 3-of-4, with the LHL being the outlier (including Franklin County and Spencer County in the top 10 when the other three all had Rockcastle or Mercer). In 5-A, only 15 teams had a top-10 ranking and seven appeared in all four. Three of the four (South Warren and Highlands for the LHL, Dixie Heights for BGP and Madison Southern for CAL) had top-10 teams which did not appear in any of the other polls. In 6-A, only 11 teams had a top-10 ranking and nine appeared in all four. The only outlier was the LHL having McCracken in the top 10 at 10th instead of Ballard, which was 10th in each of the other three). Here's a graphic showing where teams were in each ranking:

I know two other high schools (Valley, Mason County) are being thrown around, but here's an option: CENTRAL HARDIN. Gym seats 4,008. Plenty of parking. Easy restaurants (can walk to McDonald's, Burger King and Taco Bell; Subway and Dairy Queen less than 3 miles away). Easy access off Western Kentucky Parkway (direct exit off Ring Road) and Bluegrass Parkway (take either E'town exit) and has two exits (91, 94) off I-65 to choose from. Plenty of good hotels off exit 94. And more centrally located than any other option. (FWIW: Central Hardin was slated to host the Kentucky-Indiana Sr All Stars in 2017 before it got moved. CH also hosts state powerlifting and elementary school state wrestling, I think).

LaRue County got a foreign exchange student (Congo), not a transfer from another 5th Region or even KHSAA school. Been told his nickname is "Bronco" (hard to pronounce real full name), he's about 6-6 (some say taller) and he HAS been cleared by KHSAA.

Would it surprise me if Elizabethtown DID win it all? It's possible. I'm just trying to figure out how/why some folks think E'town has left LexCath/Boyle in the dust so convincingly. I CAN'T get there. At least not yet. If they struggle with F-S, CAL and NH, I definitely won't be there before the midway point. That being said, E'town is fully capable of putting together a run like last year (E'town started 2-3 with losses to some good, but not great, teams like East Jess, Bardstown and North Hardin) and go deep again. Three straight state semifinals? Doable. Likely in many people's eyes. But state champ? Has Belfry fallen THAT far? Can E'town put it together in the trenches for four quarters with Belfry or Corbin or Louisville Central (which E'town has an AWFUL history with)? E'town folks should know from past experience (the Todd team following the runner-up year; girls' soccer under Zoeller; girls' golf with three D-I players; girls' basketball ranked No. 1 three different seasons with Boley) that their programs do NOT do well when the expectations are high. Not-a-fun fact: The last SIX times E'town has been ranked No. 1 in a sport during a season, it did NOT win the state title in any of those sports. Personally, I'd rather fly under the radar and sneak up on people (like last year or even 2015) than have a ton of hype and come up short (see E'town girls' soccer or three straight seasons of E'town girls hoops). Hype can be dangerous,, When hype shows its sharp side, that cut is rather painful. Label me "Cautiously Optimistic." I ain't fully gulping and guzzling all that Kool-Aid just yet, though. Just merely sipping. For now. (Now watch them go 15-0 and leave me with a serious helping of crow to try to eat)

Being from Hardin County, I'd love for Elizabethtown to break the area streak and bring it home. Elizabethtown, Meade and John Hardin have all advanced to a final in the last 15 years or so and went a combined 0-fer in the final. What's interesting is this Elizabethtown team is void of serious star power. No D-I locks like the Chris Todd (Texas Tech-Auburn), Brandon Deaderick (Alabama), Zipp Duncan (Kentucky) and AJ French (WKU) runner-up squad. You go look at the BGP football offers thread and E'town has very few kids listed. If E'town is as good as everyone thinks/hopes, then they should come out and make a statement against Franklin-Simpson, CAL and North Hardin. I'm not trying to be a hater because I know a lot of folks inside the E'town program. Don't get me wrong: E'town IS good. But are they THAT good? Because Belfry has been on another level recently and even though E'town has been to back-to-back semis, the teams which ended E'town's seasons (LexCath in 15, Louisville Central in 16) weren't exactly that competitive when it mattered most (in the final).

NEITHER will be in the hunt. - Robinson is a Junior, not a senior. He would have to have an absolutely enormous year and overcome the fact that Western Hills is from a smaller class, wasn't particularly elite last year (one and done) and does NOT play the most challenging schedule. Mr. Football is a media award (Mr. Basketball is voted on by the coaches) and Western Hills doesn't leave CKY during its schedule (for other voters to see him). - Perdue has a similar problem. Small class and team wasn't good last year. Plus, he would need the Louisville area's media votes and they already have good candidates (notably Moore and Rice) much closer to home with much bigger college offers. Moore also plays for the state's top team. Both are fabulous players who will have good seasons and will have a nice selection of colleges to choose from. In order to be Mr. Football, though, you need more firepower. A junior and a player from a mediocre team on the outskirts of a metro area with other high-quality candidates is a LOT to overcome just to ENTER the conversation, let alone win.

Bowling Green's Justice Dingle commits to Georgia Tech, per his twitter account on Tuesday evening: Twitter

John Hardin had some very, very good teams under Brown. But you can't say the Bulldogs' district/region foes at that time were all that great.

I think Elizabethtown is a very good Class 3-A team. Are they among the overall elite teams in the state? I doubt it, but putting a hurting on Franklin-Simpson and CAL and North Hardin would sway my mind in a hurry. I think some folks our putting E'town out there because of the relative ease of its schedule (final 7 games that is) and there is only ONE team (the Boyle-LexCath winner) stopping them from going to the final. I think if Elizabethtown was in the east, it would be a much much much harder road winning in rounds 2-3-4. It kind of reminds me of the old John Hardin days when it was expected to sleepwalk its way into the state semis before finally running into somebody with a pulse (and Bulldogs survived only one of those matchups).

These are CalPreps' predictions for those teams: 2016: CH 21, E 19 2015: E 22, CH 21 2014: CH 35, E 12 2013: CH 42, E 7 2012: CH 44, E 8 (Actual: CH 51, E 20) 2011: CH 50, E 14 (Actual: CH 53, E 6) 2010: Actual: CH 28, E 26 2009: Actual: CH 49, E 7 Combine physical with actual and Elizabethtown would be 1-7 against CH with only a 1-point win to show for it and five losses of 3 touchdowns or more. The only year it would have won, 2015, Elizabethtown got hammered at home in the playoffs (by a team which turned around and got shut out). 2006 would have been the last year you could argue Elizabethtown actually/virtually imposed its will on CH (20-3 win by E). Last year was a mirage for Elizabethtown. Coach Mark Brown has said as much. Last season -- not the year John Hardin went to the final, because JH was expected to if it could only exorcise its Bowling Green/Christian County demons, because Elizabethtown was supposed to rebuild last year. You forget they got beat by East Jessamine and North Hardin (which Central Hardin thumped) and Bardstown (which Lexington Catholic blitzed)? Go back and look at E'town's 8 straight wins last year. Tell me they had MORE than ONE quality win, because I don't see it. Caldwell was E'town's best win last year and even North Hardin (which hasn't had a lengthy playoff run since ???) beat Caldwell, too. Even without facing Central Hardin, Elizabethtown could EASILY start 0-3 this year. Road vs. Franklin-Simpson (beat South Warren last year), CAL (waxed Louisville Central last year and beat Meade County far worse than CH did) and North Hardin (more athletic, more depth and a future star in Octavious Oxendine who was offered by both Louisville and Purdue after starting both ways as a lineman as a freshman last year) will give Elizabethtown problems. I think there is ZERO chance E'town opens 3-0. ONLY way Elizabethtown starts of 3-0 or 4-0 is if the Thomas Nelson game gets moved to second week (and Elizabethtown would need a gimme win over TNHS to ease the first four games). Have you looked at E'town's postseason road? If they were switched with the Boyle/LexCath district instead of the more "cupcakier" WKY district, E'town could be two-and-through (fall to the Boyle-LexCath regular-season loser in Round 2). You think Elizabethtown would have survived a Round 3 date with Corbin or Russell last year? I don't. E'town is 0-2 in state semis the past 2 years, getting waxed in one one them, with BOTH teams (LexCath 15, Louisville Central 16) getting absolutely hammered by Belfry in the final. Again, beating CH (which Elizabethtown hasn't done "empatically" virtually or actually since 2008, and even that was a 1-point squeaker win for E) has zero to do with E'town having a CHANCE to play FOR the title (no way E'town would be favorite in final. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Ain't happening). Local Big/Small rivalries are nice, but they end at some point. North Hardin has no business playing Fort Knox and that rivalry was the longest/oldest in the area. Many NH kids have ties to Fort Knox post). Central Hardin no longer plays LaRue (but plays them in most every other sport). LaRue no longer plays Meade (those were some slobberknockers in the early 2000s). John Hardin (a much smaller school) and Elizabethtown haven't met in a while, either.

I think E'town is top-10 3-A most definitely. Are they the "West" favorite over Boyle and LexCath? I think they can compete with both. I'm not sure who the definitive favorite is out of those three. Maybe things have FINALLY changed at Tilghman (we hear that every year) and Caldwell has put together some nice seasons (but does NOT have the best track record against teams from inside the Hardin County borders), but I think E'town wins its district and region (vs. District 1). Do the Panthers make it to Lexington? Boyle or LexCath ain't no pushover. And should E'town get there -- which would be a fabulous accomplishment -- they sure as !@#$ won't be the favorite against whichever mountain monster or Louisville Central comes outta the east. E'town has some nice skill players, but no big linemen at all.

I do NOT have a bias. There are plenty of small schools (CAL, DeSales, Boyle, Central, Danville, Belfry, Mayfield) that can and do beat bigger schools on a regular basis. Looking SPECIFICALLY at the Central Hardin-Etown rivalry though, Central Hardin absolutely OWNED Elizabethtown in the last games of the rivalry. Not even close. Quite boring actually. Elizabethtown has gotten better in that time, but so has Central Hardin (both teams were in the state semis in 2015). They had two common opponents last season, with Central Hardin thumping North Hardin and Elizabethtown losing to North Hardin by two touchdowns. Central Hardin's varsity depth is almost twice that Elizabethtown's ENTIRE program. As far as E'town getting to a 3-A title game (while being compared to a 6-A school), not sure what that has to do with it. You forget the toughest two teams Elizabethtown would have to go through theoretically this year are Boyle (which lost to North Hardin last year) and LexCath (which got crushed at HOME by that same Louisville Central team E'town took to the wire on the ROAD the next week). Whether E'town is better than Central Hardin or Central Hardin is still better has no bearing on what E'town does in a completely separate class with entirely different opponents. I stand by my post that Central Hardin is a bad matchup currently for Elizabethtown (due to school size, roster size, upswing of feeder programs, consistency finally in CH coaching staffs, etc.).