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Belmont Stakes


bigblueinsanity

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That Preakness field was mediocre at best. He'll face much better competition at the Belmont. That said, his biggest asset so far has been his tremendous closing speed. So long as he doesn't turn up the heat too early, Big Brown should win it.

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Not a chance he beats that

 

Of course he wont beat that. Not only is that a great time but Desormaux will wrap Big Brown up and not ask him to run the last 1/8 to 1/16 of a mile. We saw it in the Derby and we saw it yesterday. Big Brown has crushed both fields and Desormaux has not even used the whip really. In the Belmont Big Brown will run away from the field and win by a large margin, but the margin could have been much wider, just like the previous two races. Big Brown will "gallop" to the wire and run off into the sunset straight to the breeding shed. The last thing on Desormaux mind will be 2.24.

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That Preakness field was mediocre at best. He'll face much better competition at the Belmont. That said, his biggest asset so far has been his tremendous closing speed. So long as he doesn't turn up the heat too early, Big Brown should win it.

 

Disagree with the bolded part. He won the Preakness not because of closing speed, but because of the strong middle move he made to get to the front just before he hit the top of the stretch. Closers generally don't start running hard until the top of the stretch. By the time he made the lead, it was over, because all he had to do was give just a short burst more after straightening out and the rest of the field lost heart and pretty much gave up after that.

 

So far, his running style has resembled Smarty Jones' quite a lot, and I can't help but think he'll be vulnerable to the same type of race that wore Smarty Jones down in the stretch, where groups of horses went after him seemingly in tandem, forcing him to keep expending a great deal of energy for the duration of the race just to stay near the front. He's very vulnerable to a deep closer, and that's likely where my money will go.

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Of course he wont beat that. Not only is that a great time but Desormaux will wrap Big Brown up and not ask him to run the last 1/8 to 1/16 of a mile. We saw it in the Derby and we saw it yesterday. Big Brown has crushed both fields and Desormaux has not even used the whip really. In the Belmont Big Brown will run away from the field and win by a large margin, but the margin could have been much wider, just like the previous two races. Big Brown will "gallop" to the wire and run off into the sunset straight to the breeding shed. The last thing on Desormaux mind will be 2.24.

 

What a life.....:D

 

 

I'm thinking Casino Drive will give him a challenge. He looked very good winning his last race (the Peter Pan I think). I will still pull for BB, but I think it will be close (1-2 lengths).

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Disagree with the bolded part. He won the Preakness not because of closing speed, but because of the strong middle move he made to get to the front just before he hit the top of the stretch. Closers generally don't start running hard until the top of the stretch. By the time he made the lead, it was over, because all he had to do was give just a short burst more after straightening out and the rest of the field lost heart and pretty much gave up after that.

 

So far, his running style has resembled Smarty Jones' quite a lot, and I can't help but think he'll be vulnerable to the same type of race that wore Smarty Jones down in the stretch, where groups of horses went after him seemingly in tandem, forcing him to keep expending a great deal of energy for the duration of the race just to stay near the front. He's very vulnerable to a deep closer, and that's likely where my money will go.

 

 

:thumb:

 

His cruising speed is what makes him so great. Desormaux has such control over the horse and where he rates him and how fast he goes.

Smarty was the target in that race and Big Brown will be the same way. With that said, Stewart Elliot moved Smarty too early in the race and he was empty the final 1/16th of a mile. I think KD will wait to make the move and no one will be able to run him down late. The talk of Casino Drive beating Big Brown is crazy IMO. The Belmont will only be his 2nd race in the states, and most horses run well their first time here then bounce in their second race. Casino Drive's Peter Pan race at Belmont was not even really impressive. Brown will be fine, and we will see a Triple Crown winner !

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I don't think I've ever said a horse will win the triple crown until he won the Derby this year. I won good cash on him in the Derby:) I really think that unless he gets squeezed off really bad or gets hurt that we will see him win the triple crown. I've never said it about a horse but I think he is that good!

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:thumb:

 

His cruising speed is what makes him so great. Desormaux has such control over the horse and where he rates him and how fast he goes.

Smarty was the target in that race and Big Brown will be the same way. With that said, Stewart Elliot moved Smarty too early in the race and he was empty the final 1/16th of a mile. I think KD will wait to make the move and no one will be able to run him down late. The talk of Casino Drive beating Big Brown is crazy IMO. The Belmont will only be his 2nd race in the states, and most horses run well their first time here then bounce in their second race. Casino Drive's Peter Pan race at Belmont was not even really impressive. Brown will be fine, and we will see a Triple Crown winner !

 

I agree with your jockey comments. I have much more faith in Desormeaux to let go of the reins at the right time than I did Stewart Elliott. But Big Brown's still gonna have to come up with perhaps his best race of the three to fend off fresh challengers. I hope he does, but the handicapper in me will have me chasing after the value, like I did yesterday, successfully.

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I agree with your jockey comments. I have much more faith in Desormeaux to let go of the reins at the right time than I did Stewart Elliott. But Big Brown's still gonna have to come up with perhaps his best race of the three to fend off fresh challengers. I hope he does, but the handicapper in me will have me chasing after the value, like I did yesterday, successfully.

 

I honestly do not think we have seen Big Brown's best. Desormaux has not needed to really ask much of him so far. His five victories have all been pretty much hand rides and a small urge at the top of the lane. I think if Kent does have to "get after him" inside the 1/8th pole he will have a lot of animal left. I would love to see a horse mount a challenge and Big Brown have to show what he is really made of and put the horse away in two or three strides!

 

He is a freak, a superhorse!

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Watching the Preakness was amazingly impressive... If you heard Desourmeaux in his post race analysis it really was something to see... Coming around the last turn before the stretch he had his horse running third and he was holding him back. And it was easy to see that once he hit the stretch and he let him loose... Amazing how much of an extra gear he has comparative to the other horses...

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