BGP Weather Forecast for Friday 11/7/25

[nWo]

Here is my initial prediction for Friday, November 7, 2025, games as high school playoff football gets underway. Attendees of these games should be ready for thunderstorms and showers. Since some of these could be strong to severe, I’m posting earlier than normal.  Let’s look at the setup. 
We’ll see warmer than average temperatures for November. At 1:00 PM EST, temperatures in Kentucky's eastern regions will be in the mid to upper 60s, while those in the western region will be in the low 70s. This is displayed in the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10-day forecast. They are also showing an above-normal precipitation chance. 

 

 

On Friday, the upper Ohio Valley will experience an upper-air trough with westerly winds of about 60 mph. Moist air with dewpoints in the 60s will be moved by the low-level jet with southeasterly winds of about 40 mph. In western Kentucky, these circumstances will result in Cape values of about 1,100 J/kg. For a thunderstorm to potentially develop into a strong to severe storm, the surrounding conditions must have a CAPE value of at least 1,000 J/kg.  

I usually start my forecast period around 4 pm EST, 5 pm EDT, but with this possible setup, I'm moving to the early afternoon till around 10 pm EST.

I'll be keeping a close eye on this and posting updates.

Upper-air trough

 

Low-level jet

 

 

CAPE (convective available potential energy)

 

[nWo]

 I forgot the temperature map.

 

[Tkinslow]

That’s no good.

[nWo]

15 hours ago, Tkinslow said:

That’s no good.

I'm hoping it doesn't occur. All we can do is wait and see. 

[nWo]

This will be a brief update. To determine the likelihood of potential supercell development, I examined the GEFS composite model. It is demonstrating that the conditions may be conducive to some rotation in any storm that develops. The strongest severe weather event could be produced by supercells. Currently, the window for these potential storms appears to be between 1 and 7 p.m. EST. By early evening, the percentages have risen from about 10% to about 25%. Supercells may form, but this does not imply that they will. 

 

[barrel]

What areas of the state will be affected?

[nWo]

2 minutes ago, barrel said:

What areas of the state will be affected?

 Primarily located west of I-75 and south of I-64. This represents the general area. Starting tomorrow, I should be able to begin fine-tuning the forecast. 

[fatsnbul]

Sounds like some Saturday games.

[FootballGuy2121]

KCD made the call to move their game on Sunday morning to get ahead of the curve once Caverna and the KHSAA approved. Now several schools around Louisville are following suit. We'll see a few more games get moved as well. 

[Shaquille_Oatmeal]

The Lincoln County vs Perry County Central game has been moved to Thursday at 7:30pm. 

[Tigerpride94]

Lol.

[gchs_uk9]

36 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Lol.

I don't mean to make light of the weather, but moving to Thursday looks a whole lot like a bunch of 4-seeds ready to be done with the season.

[FromTheStands05]

Looks like Danville has moved their game to Thursday night. 

[Tigerpride94]

29 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I don't mean to make light of the weather, but moving to Thursday looks a whole lot like a bunch of 4-seeds ready to be done with the season.

Getting running clocked in the rain doesn't sound appealing.

[nWo]

Looks like moving the games is a good call. Here's my update.

The TN Valley appears to be the center of likely severe-storm development, extending from south-central Kentucky. Strong deep-layer shear and hodographs would favor supercells in this corridor, which should have a better chance of weak to modest destabilization. A level 2-slight area appears to be warranted due to the consensus of model guidance regarding late afternoon to early evening storm development along/ahead of the front. The degree of early destabilization will determine how severe and widespread the threat may become. Friday night's subsiding large-scale rising motion from the southwest to the northeast casts doubt on how long the severe weather will last.

A level 1 marginal risk area surrounds the level 2 slight risk area.