I'm pressed for time right now, so I'll post a more detailed update later this morning.

Use this link for the latest update.

 

 

 

 

Thursday morning update:

On Friday afternoon and into the evening, a cold front moves southeast. A line of showers and a few embedded storms will accompany it. A few storms have the potential to intensify or become severe.  A spin-up tornado and isolated severe hail are the primary severe threat modes.

 

 

 

 

Storm coverage may extend southwestward from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE is likely to remain weak, with rich low-level moisture confined to the southern Lower Mississippi Valley. However, conditions will result in supercell wind profiles. Guidance varies with storm coverage, but there is enough signal for initial storms capable of producing severe hail before clustering. 

The period with the best chance for these storms is 5-11 pm EST. Click on the arrow below for animation.

 

 

Looks all the Louisville games didn't need to move based on current forecast. The Euro model seems to have had the right forecast all along compared to GFS.

2 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Looks all the Louisville games didn't need to move based on current forecast. The Euro model seems to have had the right forecast all along compared to GFS.

I was thinking the same thing. Attendance is going to suffer moving the games to Thursday. We have had many Aug-Sept models that were worse and the games remained scheduled for Friday.

A line of showers will develop over or near southern Indiana and move southeast. Storms will intensify as they move east of I-65. There is a low chance for a few storms to become strong to severe. The main severe weather threats are:

Isolated hail 15%

Isolated spin-up tornado 2%

Isolated damaging winds 5%

Gusty southwest to northeast winds between 25 and 30 mph ahead of the approaching cold front Friday evening.  There are many variables, such as cloud coverage and instability, that will impact the outcome.

 

This is the 06z simulation that shows a potential for heavier precipitation. It shows a highly rotated updraft, for which the UH is above 75 units. This suggests the potential for a supercell with mid-level rotation.

Notice the second line that forms around Louisville around 6-7 p.m. EST. This does not mean that severe storms will form; rather, it indicates that they have the potential to form. The next map is the lightning flash density map. It shows where the thunderstorms may form. It is not an exact location, just the general area.

 

 

Here is a quick update. While the threat of widespread severe weather has diminished, isolated strong to severe storms are still possible. The main threat is from damaging wind gusts. While isolated large hail and a quick spin-up tornado are not ruled out. Finally, as of this morning, it appears that the storm may begin sooner than previously predicted. After the initial batch of storms passes, those in the Louisville area should keep an eye out for the second line of storms. 

Probability of lightning map. Click on the arrow to put this map in motion.

Lightning flash density map

 

 

Logan, Warren, Simpson, Allen, Barren, and Monroe counties, as well as those nearby, now face a higher tornado risk. It is 2%. For comparison, only 1% of all thunderstorms in a year result in a tornado. Therefore, even though the risk is minimal, it still exists. 

The severe chances have increased some more with the latest Storm Prediction Center update:

Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms developing late this afternoon, initially over the KY/TN border vicinity during the evening.  Forecast hodographs will support organized storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a few supercells.  A tornado risk, in addition to the threat of damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail, may accompany the stronger storms.  A mix of linear storm modes and supercells is expected through the early to mid-evening as this activity moves east.  

 

 

 

 

 

We have heavy rain with 30 mph wind gusts now I'm Richmond. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, nWo said:

We have heavy rain with 30 mph wind gusts now I'm Richmond. 

From a quick look at the radar it looks like EKY, SEKY, and south central Kentucky will experience heavy storms early this evening.