6 minutes ago, Rebel said:

Just me but I think Covington Catholic is the best team in 4A and has the hardest road ahead of them in the playoffs.  Host a opening round playoff game and will have to go on the road for week 2,3, & 4 just to make the Championship game.  

24 minutes ago, Rebel said:

Just me but I think Covington Catholic is the best team in 4A and has the hardest road ahead of them in the playoffs.  Host a opening round playoff game and will have to go on the road for week 2,3, & 4 just to make the Championship game.  

The likely second round games between 4A districts 5 and 6 are going to good matchups:

Highlands hosting Ashland Blazer

Cov Cath at Johnson Central

 

I would be interested in seeing the impact of this tweak in the RPI formula. The weighting of classes is 15% increase per class. That gives us this game value weighting:

1A = 1.323

2A = 1.521

3A = 1.749

4A = 2.011

5A = 2.313

6A = 2.660

I would like to see what happens in the ratings if the weighting increases only 10%:

1A = 1.323

2A = 1.4553

3A = 1.6008

4A = 1.7609

5A = 1.9370

6A = 2.1307

That is a pretty big difference and it reduces the boost teams get from beating a bigger school. The class weighting is the biggest factor in the odd rankings generated by the current KHSA RPI formula. Making the class size weighting lower would result in the value of the quality of the opponent having more impact in the RPI. 

 

Does the RPI just take in account the 10 game regular season or does it count the first couple rounds of playoffs? 

5 minutes ago, Wildcat63 said:

Does the RPI just take in account the 10 game regular season or does it count the first couple rounds of playoffs? 

Regular season only. The RPI is frozen for the post season. As teams lose in the playoffs the remaining teams are “restacked” week by week, carrying with them whatever their RPI was entering the playoffs. 

On 10/18/2025 at 11:23 PM, Voice of Reason said:

I would be interested in seeing the impact of this tweak in the RPI formula. The weighting of classes is 15% increase per class. That gives us this game value weighting:

1A = 1.323

2A = 1.521

3A = 1.749

4A = 2.011

5A = 2.313

6A = 2.660

I would like to see what happens in the ratings if the weighting increases only 10%:

1A = 1.323

2A = 1.4553

3A = 1.6008

4A = 1.7609

5A = 1.9370

6A = 2.1307

That is a pretty big difference and it reduces the boost teams get from beating a bigger school. The class weighting is the biggest factor in the odd rankings generated by the current KHSA RPI formula. Making the class size weighting lower would result in the value of the quality of the opponent having more impact in the RPI. 

 

@JUGGSPORTS

Since you appear to have the formula loaded on a spreadsheet, would you be able to apply the change above to the game value weighting and see if it makes RPI "better" than the current game value weighting?

13 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

@JUGGSPORTS

Since you appear to have the formula loaded on a spreadsheet, would you be able to apply the change above to the game value weighting and see if it makes RPI "better" than the current game value weighting?

Yeah, I can tweak it and check the outcomes.  

This is my projections of Week 10 and 11 based on current RPI.  The remaining games were simulated based on RPI head to head to determine Win or Loss.  

Class 3A scenario has Bell County beating Pulaski County in Week 11. If Bell County loses to Pulaski County, Lloyd Memorial jumps to 3 and Bell County drops to 5.

1. CAL
2. Murray
3. Lloyd Memorial
4. Lawrence County
5. Bell County

Class 1A


Class 2A


Class 3A


Class 4A


Class 5A


Class 6A




 

On 10/18/2025 at 4:04 PM, Rebel said:

Just me but I think Covington Catholic is the best team in 4A and has the hardest road ahead of them in the playoffs.  Host a opening round playoff game and will have to go on the road for week 2,3, & 4 just to make the Championship game.  

Anything can happen in the playoffs. I think CCH can beat any team in 4A this year.

Johnson Central can be beat. CCH has done it before in Eastern KY. If I am Highlands, I do not want to face the Blue Colonels again. I hope we see a rematch. 

 

Could we have a Highlands vs Covington Catholic championship game? 

14 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

@JUGGSPORTS

Since you appear to have the formula loaded on a spreadsheet, would you be able to apply the change above to the game value weighting and see if it makes RPI "better" than the current game value weighting?

Not a big shake up as one would think.  This is Week 9 KHSAA RPI vs BGP 10% Scaled RPI request. 

CLASS 1A


CLASS 2A

CLASS 3A


CLASS 4A


CLASS 5A


CLASS 6A

37 minutes ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

Could we have a Highlands vs Covington Catholic championship game? 

I believe it can happen. My son was trying to teach me all this stuff and he said it’s a possibility. That would be pretty exciting.

Any formula that does not value head to head as a MAJOR component is flawed.

RPI needs to be redone or not used.

3 hours ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

Could we have a Highlands vs Covington Catholic championship game? 

Could happen.  A lot depends on who's the #1 seed is.  Cov Cath with 3 losses will more than likely be the lowest seed and have to play the highest seed in each round they play starting in the 3rd. round.  Boyle vs. Frederick Douglas will be a factor on the the RPI as will Scott County vs. Highlands. 

I personally think Boyle, Highlands, and Corbin are locks for the 3rd. round.  The 4th. team will be the Cov Cath / Johnson Central winner and I like Catholic.  

3 hours ago, Breds82 said:

I believe it can happen. My son was trying to teach me all this stuff and he said it’s a possibility. That would be pretty exciting.

Possible? Yes. Probable? That path for CovCath is just so daunting... I don't see them managing to get all the way there. It would help them immensely if they could get past Corbin in RPI so that they could avoid Boyle County in the third round (after having to beat Johnson Central in the second).  But if that were to be the case, then it means they'll play Highlands in the third round.

So for the Highlands/CovCath state title to take place, I believe they'd have to stay behind Corbin, beat Johnson Central, Boyle County, Franklin County, in that order, all on the road, just to get to the finals.  For Highlands part, they'd have to go to Paducah (probably) in the state semis, to say nothing of beating Corbin in the third round.