I'm heading out to this game, I'm going Pikeville, but you never know. It could come down to like most games who takes care of the football, a couple turnovers from either team could end in a loss... Pikeville 28-21

I also want to Congratulate these two young men on there commitments.  I also want to send Congratulations and Charlie Slabaugh on his commitment to play baseball. 

I personally think strength of schedule can have too much emphasis sometimes. I think it can definitely help but plenty can win with good/bad strengths of schedule, which has pretty much always happened. Pikeville is obviously very good and hasn’t been a stranger to it anytime recently or before. I still believe Sayre has a good chance with their offensive capabilities and differences. 

There is no mystery to how good Pikeville is. We can throw RPI out of the window and Pikeville is still going to be a contender year in and year out! Tonight will be a similar situation to last year’s Raceland game for the Spartans. This game will come down to if Sayre has the guys to neutralize Pikeville’s size and physicality! If the Spartans can find a way to get off the field on defense and get a few stops this game could get very interesting! 
 

I look forward to seeing this contest tonight and I will forever love a good underdog story! Give me the Spartans in a dog fight! 

Anyone know how Sayres field looks for this matchup?

27 minutes ago, Bac2369 said:

Anyone know how Sayres field looks for this matchup?

Field is in good shape. Better than last week vs Paris.

3 minutes ago, Hard Work said:

Field is in good shape. Better than last week vs Paris.

Figured it be good and damp and possibly a lil muddy after rains and snow.

I'll be covering Campbellsville and Newport Central, but this is a game I genuinely wish I could attend.  I'm going Pikeville by 3 scores.

13 hours ago, hrcarrier said:

I personally think strength of schedule can have too much emphasis sometimes. I think it can definitely help but plenty can win with good/bad strengths of schedule, which has pretty much always happened. Pikeville is obviously very good and hasn’t been a stranger to it anytime recently or before. I still believe Sayre has a good chance with their offensive capabilities and differences. 

SOS PLUS the results of the games against SOS is the most reliable way to project a game outcome. In other words, wins and margin of victory or loss against a team's strongest opponents are excellent indicators of how a game will go.

Here is the challenge in this game. Sayre has not played a higher calibre team this year. 2A Bracken County is their strongest opponent. We have no idea how they match up against a higher calbre team. 

On the other hand, Pikeville has played 9 games against teams that are higher rated than Bracken County. But Pikevilke was 4-5 in those 9 games. Looking at teams of similar quality to Sayre, Pikeville was 4-0 but all those games were competitive games with average margin of victory of 13 points. The best of those 4 opponents was Raceland and Pikeville only won that game by 3.

So...what does all that tell us? We really have no idea how Sayre will match up against an opponent of Pikeville's quality. There can be a fine line between a 10 point win and a 28 point win depending on matchups. 

Looking at Sayre vs. Bracken County and Pikeville vs. Raceland and Boyd County for guidance, I think the key to a win for Sayre is their running game. They need some success in their running game to keep the Pikeville defense honest. Sayre also needs to control the clock and reduce possessions. Sayre has not faced an offense anywhere close to Pikeville's quality. Pikeville is going to score points. Can Sayre score enough to keep pace and maybe get an upset win on a last possession?

I will say the SOS and quality do count and Sayre hasn't been tested enough to fix the flaws that an opponent like Pikeville will expose and take advantage of. 

I'll go with Pikeville 35 Sayre 28

They're underway in Lexington. 

Pikeville received the opening kick.

Quick three and out for Pikeville. 

Nice return on the punt by Coffman into Pikeville territory. 

Sayre‘s picked up a couple of first downs.

Ball at the Pikeville 27.

Pennington finds Coffman along the sideline for another 1st at the Pikeville 15.

Blake Caudill gets a good shot on Pennington on 3rd and long. The ball came loose, but correctly ruled an incomplete pass.

Fourth down pass falls incomplete. 

Turnover on downs.

6:28 1Q

That would have been ideal for Sayre to score after stopping Pikeville on their drive before.