Last week of the regular season brings a lot of good matchups between ranked teams across class level. Some of these games are going to be huge in setting who plays who in round 3 and round 4 of the playoffs. I have detailed in the RPI tracking thread the impact RPI might have on round 3 and 4 matchups. I am sure there are other big games across the state that will impact playoff matchups. What are some of those big RPI games happening this week?

2A - I believe you had it showing that it wasn't impossible for OCath to pass Beechwood. However unlikely it may be.. paired with a potential 3rd round matchup of Mayfield/LCA. Could we see Mayfield making the trip to Ft Mitchell and Lloyd going to Owensboro?

Disclaimer - I am a fan of chaos. I think this could be the most chaos we could see without a big upset. 

6A - looking at all NKY teams. Curious to see what a 3rd round matchup looks like there if/when a NKY team makes it.

 

Edited to add disclaimer.

14 minutes ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

Disclaimer - I am a fan of chaos. I think this could be the most chaos we could see without a big upset.

Love it!

Looking at 1A, there are some really close RPI numbers among the top teams on the west side of the state. Home field advantage is definitely an issue because of the long travel that will happen in round 3.

On the east side, home field for a possible round 3 matchup between Hazard and Raceland is up for grabs this week. Hazard has the upper hand. If they win this week, they should hold on to home field advantage in that round 3 game.

37 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Looking at 1A, there are some really close RPI numbers among the top teams on the west side of the state. Home field advantage is definitely an issue because of the long travel that will happen in round 3.

On the east side, home field for a possible round 3 matchup between Hazard and Raceland is up for grabs this week. Hazard has the upper hand. If they win this week, they should hold on to home field advantage in that round 3 game.

I agree. The 5 best west teams in my opinion are in order 4-8. One of those teams will be gone 2nd round. But Do Not Sleep on Crittenden County. So this last week is very important to pick up a win for that last RPI.

The East is definitely got peoples eyes open as who is going to finish in that #2 or #3 spot. Both Hazard and Raceland will be in a battle to win there last game.

Southwestern and Woodford are within a ten-thousandth of a point of each other in the RPI! This could have a huge implication on who would play Douglass in the third round.

 

In 3A, I don’t think it would be crazy to see CAL jump Bardstown for the #1 spot. CAL plays a 6A team with some wins under their belt and that could bode well for the calculation; but it may still be a stretch. 

4A, 5A, and 6A will all see potential shifts in their top 4 based on two games this week.  

Douglas v. Boyle

X v. BG 

10 hours ago, WishboneCity said:

Southwestern and Woodford are within a ten-thousandth of a point of each other in the RPI! This could have a huge implication on who would play Douglass in the third round.

 

In 3A, I don’t think it would be crazy to see CAL jump Bardstown for the #1 spot. CAL plays a 6A team with some wins under their belt and that could bode well for the calculation; but it may still be a stretch. 

Frankly it depends on what teams on their schedule do. If Greenwood, Spencer County, Nelson County, and Elizabethtown all manage wins, I don’t think Bardstown will drop much at all and might even go up.

Personally, I'm watching Owensboro vs. Henderson County.  If Owensboro wins, there's a possibility that Henderson County would then drop below Bullitt East in RPI.  If that happens, everything plays out the way it should and the Chargers were fortunate enough to make it past the 1st 2 rounds of the playoffs, then Henderson County would come to Mt. Washington vs. The Chargers heading to Henderson County.

On 10/24/2022 at 12:26 AM, WishboneCity said:

Southwestern and Woodford are within a ten-thousandth of a point of each other in the RPI! This could have a huge implication on who would play Douglass in the third round.

 

In 3A, I don’t think it would be crazy to see CAL jump Bardstown for the #1 spot. CAL plays a 6A team with some wins under their belt and that could bode well for the calculation; but it may still be a stretch. 

 

14 hours ago, Hearsay said:

Frankly it depends on what teams on their schedule do. If Greenwood, Spencer County, Nelson County, and Elizabethtown all manage wins, I don’t think Bardstown will drop much at all and might even go up.

If both Bardstown and CAL win, I project CAL passing Bardstown. As Hearsay says, it does depend on what their opponents and opponents opponents do so that could change the numbers and result, but just looking at the impact from beating their opponents this week the finishing numbers project CAL ahead:

CAL ...... .740505

Bardstown ... .736166

8 hours ago, Unrivaled97 said:

Personally, I'm watching Owensboro vs. Henderson County.  If Owensboro wins, there's a possibility that Henderson County would then drop below Bullitt East in RPI.  If that happens, everything plays out the way it should and the Chargers were fortunate enough to make it past the 1st 2 rounds of the playoffs, then Henderson County would come to Mt. Washington vs. The Chargers heading to Henderson County.

Even if Henderson County loses, there is a chance they stay ahead of Bullitt East. The reason is Oldham County's 0-10 record will cause a big drop in the Bullitt East OWP. I see Bullitt East ahead of Henderson by .007 and that would keep Henderson County within range of staying ahead,with it depending on what each team's opponents and opponents opponents do.

On 10/24/2022 at 12:26 AM, WishboneCity said:

Southwestern and Woodford are within a ten-thousandth of a point of each other in the RPI! This could have a huge implication on who would play Douglass in the third round.

 

In 3A, I don’t think it would be crazy to see CAL jump Bardstown for the #1 spot. CAL plays a 6A team with some wins under their belt and that could bode well for the calculation; but it may still be a stretch. 

If both Woodford County and Southwestern win, I project Woodford (.681384) ahead of Southwestern (.678707). 

Looking to see if 2A Beechwood can grab a win from 1A NCC and boost themselves high enough to secure the #1 spot in 2A. 

Holmes, Rowan County, and Scott are in a three way tie for 2nd place in their district. On the line, hosting Bourbon County, going to Boyle County, or going to Lexington Catholic. 

5 hours ago, I gotta go to work said:

Holmes, Rowan County, and Scott are in a three way tie for 2nd place in their district. On the line, hosting Bourbon County, going to Boyle County, or going to Lexington Catholic. 

Is the RPI the tie breaker?  If so it looks like Holmes has some breathing room for the #2 seed.

Holmes .52339  at Lloyd Memorial 

Rowan .48531  at Montgomery County

Scott .43697   Dixie Heights at home