St. Xavier vs. Daviess County Predictions/Updates

[Brown]

8 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

One game on Daviess County's schedule surprised me which was the Floyd Central (IN) game since they had to beat them in OT 21-14. Male beat Floyd Central 49-0 and Manual beat Floyd Central 34-7. I remember watching Floyd Central against Male and thinking that was one of the worst tackling teams I've ever seen. 

I'll give DC somewhat of a pass here - I believe it was a last minute CoVid cancellation that drove them to this game.  No preparation, still should have beaten them worse, but there was no preparation on either side.

[LongTimeReader]

1 hour ago, Tigerpride94 said:

One game on Daviess County's schedule surprised me which was the Floyd Central (IN) game since they had to beat them in OT 21-14. Male beat Floyd Central 49-0 and Manual beat Floyd Central 34-7. I remember watching Floyd Central against Male and thinking that was one of the worst tackling teams I've ever seen. 

Is Floyd Central the team St. X did some 7 on 7s with during the summer?

[ApolloFan98]

1 hour ago, Brown said:

I'll give DC somewhat of a pass here - I believe it was a last minute CoVid cancellation that drove them to this game.  No preparation, still should have beaten them worse, but there was no preparation on either side.

Yea, DC took that game on a Thursday if I am not mistaken.  They still didn't play up to par either way.  Daviess has a tall task, without a doubt.  I would put them at about a 17 point road underdog here.  I've had the opportunity to call several of Joe's games over the past few years and this kid seems to get better every single time I see him.  He made some plays in that Henderson County game last week that I am just not used to seeing at the high school level.  As long as it doesn't go awful on Friday, I believe he should be Mr. Football.  His numbers speak for themselves.  His rapport with his receivers is what makes the offense go.  Daviess has about 6-7 guys that can get it done at WR.

The defense has been the question mark all season.  They were awful against the run last year but have answered the bell in almost every single contest this season.  They were gashed by Kenyatta Carbon from OHS but his speed is next level.  For the most part, DC has held up against the power running games around west Kentucky, giving up about 146 yards per game.  They also haven't faced a front anywhere near the level of St X either.  When Henderson went to the veer last week (I have no idea why they didn't start in the veer???) DC didn't have much of an answer and that would scare me if I am a Panther fan.  Most guys on the Daviess County defense play both ways and while it hasn't factored in all season, I suspect it will on Friday.

I will be in California on Friday and will miss getting to go on the road to call this one for 1027 The Game.  I hate missing it.  I think Joe will show the state that he is the absolute real deal but I don't think that will be enough.  I look for St X to control the game at the line and the game, with Humphreys making enough plays to keep DC somehwat in the game.

St X 49 - DC 35

[Tigerpride94]

18 minutes ago, LongTimeReader said:

Is Floyd Central the team St. X did some 7 on 7s with during the summer?

Yes.

[Tigerpride94]

Top 3 wins for each team according to Calpreps:

Daviess County:

#3415 Henderson County 51-28

#3415 Henderson County 38-17

#4447 Owensboro Catholic 56-19

St. X:

#469 Trinity 35-28

#536 Elder (OH) 31-21

#754 Owensboro 51-38

[Voice of Reason]

6 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Top 3 wins for each team according to Calpreps:

Daviess County:

#3415 Henderson County 51-28

#3415 Henderson County 38-17

#4447 Owensboro Catholic 56-19

St. X:

#469 Trinity 35-28

#536 Elder (OH) 31-21

#754 Owensboro 51-38

Every team St. X played is better than Henderson County except Butler. Looking at Daviess County schedule and scores, I am afraid this could be ugly. If Humphreys is able to make this competitive, it will be a nice add to his resume.

[LongTimeReader]

Thinking back to a common opponent in Owensboeo, Gavin Wimsatt was to use his legs to make some great plays and to extend plays when dropped back to pass. The question for Daviess County is can their QB make enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive? Even with St. X's starting DL in street clothes, they will still be able to overwhelm the Daviess County OL, especially late in the game if they have linemen go both ways. St. X is going to be able to run the ball, Daviess Co. QB is going to have to be special on Friday night and match St. X point for point. 

[Matthewc]

1 hour ago, LongTimeReader said:

Thinking back to a common opponent in Owensboeo, Gavin Wimsatt was to use his legs to make some great plays and to extend plays when dropped back to pass. The question for Daviess County is can their QB make enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive? Even with St. X's starting DL in street clothes, they will still be able to overwhelm the Daviess County OL, especially late in the game if they have linemen go both ways. St. X is going to be able to run the ball, Daviess Co. QB is going to have to be special on Friday night and match St. X point for point. 

I think he most defientlty can, he is a special talent, sacked very few times this year on a lot of pressures, very fast side to side and in straight lines and accelerates quickly.

[Xtiger69]

Who gets the winner of this game?

[Tigerpride94]

45 minutes ago, Xtiger69 said:

Who gets the winner of this game?

Depends on other games because they reseed using RPI for semifinal round. If St. X, Trinity, Male, and Madison Central win then St. X will host Madison Central. I would have to look at RPI to determine other scenarios.

[Tigerpride94]

I don't see Male losing so winner of this game will be #2 seed. 

[ApolloFan98]

16 hours ago, LongTimeReader said:

Thinking back to a common opponent in Owensboeo, Gavin Wimsatt was to use his legs to make some great plays and to extend plays when dropped back to pass. The question for Daviess County is can their QB make enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive? Even with St. X's starting DL in street clothes, they will still be able to overwhelm the Daviess County OL, especially late in the game if they have linemen go both ways. St. X is going to be able to run the ball, Daviess Co. QB is going to have to be special on Friday night and match St. X point for point. 

Joe absolutely can.  A lot of his best plays come outside the pocket.  As far as his ability to run, I don't know if he is on par with Gavin but he is in the ballpark.  I don't think people give him enough credit in that department.  He has 61 carries for 555 yards and 17 rushing TD.  That's 9 yards per carry.  I think 6 of those 17 TD's have come from 50 plus yards.  He does all of that while keeping his eyes up the field, always looking to make a pass.  Check out Daviess County's Football twitter page to see him last week fake the draw and throw a sidearm ball, under pressure, for a 38 yard TD.  I do not have any doubt that St X will be much better up front but I can't wait to see how Humphreys fairs against that pressure.  He has a great opportunity to prove something to anyone doubting he should be Mr. Football.

As far as strength of schedule, its not even close.  St X played a tougher opponent than DC every single week of the season, outside the Owensboro game.  The physicality up front is the only reason I am picking St X.  Games are won there.  I think Humphreys will be the best player on the field and sometimes great players can negate that advantage but I just feel like that gap and guys going both ways will be to much for DC.

[LongTimeReader]

24 minutes ago, ApolloFan98 said:

Joe absolutely can.  A lot of his best plays come outside the pocket.  As far as his ability to run, I don't know if he is on par with Gavin but he is in the ballpark.  I don't think people give him enough credit in that department.  He has 61 carries for 555 yards and 17 rushing TD.  That's 9 yards per carry.  I think 6 of those 17 TD's have come from 50 plus yards.  He does all of that while keeping his eyes up the field, always looking to make a pass.  Check out Daviess County's Football twitter page to see him last week fake the draw and throw a sidearm ball, under pressure, for a 38 yard TD.  I do not have any doubt that St X will be much better up front but I can't wait to see how Humphreys fairs against that pressure.  He has a great opportunity to prove something to anyone doubting he should be Mr. Football.

As far as strength of schedule, its not even close.  St X played a tougher opponent than DC every single week of the season, outside the Owensboro game.  The physicality up front is the only reason I am picking St X.  Games are won there.  I think Humphreys will be the best player on the field and sometimes great players can negate that advantage but I just feel like that gap and guys going both ways will be to much for DC.

Yes, he's a very good QB and he will have the opportunity to make some special throws; it will come down to his WR to catch those throws, especially early in the game. Joe will put up impressive numbers in the passing game, but Jack Sivori will put up equally impressive numbers running the ball. Which QB is able to impose their will on the other defense consistently for 48 minutes?

[Tigerpride94]

22 minutes ago, LongTimeReader said:

Yes, he's a very good QB and he will have the opportunity to make some special throws; it will come down to his WR to catch those throws, especially early in the game. Joe will put up impressive numbers in the passing game, but Jack Sivori will put up equally impressive numbers running the ball. Which QB is able to impose their will on the other defense consistently for 48 minutes?

Two Mr. Football candidates at QB. Should be entertaining. Key is turnovers which are hard to predict which could create extra advantage. 

[LongTimeReader]

Turnovers and special teams. Two aspects in playoff football that can turn the table.