The districts start Monday and the regions the following week. I’m going to make my best guess to who will make it to Rupp.

 

1 McCracken County

2 Madisonville-North Hopkins

3 Ohio County

4 Warren Central

5 John Hardin

6 Fern Creek

7 Male

8 Oldham County

9 Covington Catholic

10 Bourbon County

11 Lexington Catholic

12 Lincoln County

13 South Laurel

14 Hazard

15 Shelby Valley

16 Ashland

 

Some of the regions are tough to pick. The 1st is not one of them though, with McCracken having a clear edge. Madisonville should be favored in the 2nd, especially with the tournament played at their place.

The 3rd is always tough because regardless of the season other teams have Owensboro seems to get it together for the tournament, which is always played in their city. Ohio County is a good possibility to come out of that region, though.

The 4th is another close pick between Warren Central and Bowling Green.

The 5th has John Hardin and Elizabethtown as the favorites but LaRue County and Marion County can’t be overlooked.

Feen Creek should be the favorite in the 6th but PRP has plenty of potential to win it.

The 7th has Male and Ballard, always a tough pick.

Oldham County seems to be a slight favorite in the 8th but Collins and South Oldham are tight on their heels.

Covington Catholic should come out of the 9th.

Bourbon County is a slight favorite in the 10th over Clark County.

The 11th has two teams that one could flip a coin between who could win it, Lexington Catholic or Henry Clay. Catholic is 27-2 for the season and Henry Clay is 24-5 and is on an 18 game winning streak that includes wins over Ballard and John Hardin.

The 12th has Lincoln County as the favorite in my picks but Somerset is a possibility.

South Laurel should be the favorite in the 13th but North Laurel and their freshman sensation Reed Shepherd is a possibility. Clay County has had an up and down year with 9 losses. However, they have wins over both North and South this season and also played to within 4 points of Henry Clay in Lexington.

The 14th looked like an easy pick through most of the season with Hazard being the dominant team but since Hazard lost their first in-state game to St Henry at the All A Classic State Tournament back in January they haven’t played as well. I still think they will win the region, played at Knott Central, but it won’t be as easy as once thought. Knott would actually be my pick but they lost their 6’6 big guy for the season last month with a broken collar bone. Perry Central has a losing record but have righted the ship as of late and are playing much better, including a 1 point win over Bulldogs at Hazard’s Memorial Gym. Hazard held on to beat Estill County by 1 in their final season game. But I think when all is said and done Hazard will come out in top.

Shelby Valley has the best record in the 15th at 23-6 but come regional tournament time there’s always Johnson Central turning up their game. Shelby Valley nipped them by 1 this week at Johnson Central. Also, Paintsville defeated the Wildcats in the regional All A. I still think Shelby Valley will win the 15th but it won’t be an easy task.

Ashland is undefeated at 28-0 heading into the 16th region’s tournament and is the favorite to win the title. However, they have not played as well in the past 6 weeks as they did earlier in the season, especially with their 3 point shooting, but they still have managed to win. They’ve also had a few nagging injuries and illnesses, as I’m sure a lot of teams have also endured this season. Several schools have served notice that the region will not be simply handed to the Tomcats. Boyd County is always a threat and played them a close game a few weeks ago at Boyd. More than likely Ashland will have to play the Lions twice more, in the district and possibly in the region in order to win the title. Rowan County is another school that is a threat to give them their first loss of the year. And as we saw last week West Carter had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter before losing on a last second 60 foot shot by Ashland’s Cole Villers. Anything can happen at tournament time but I think Ashland has the grit to win the region and make it back to Rupp.

 

if it seems I wrote more about the eastern Kentucky part of the state, well I did. Lol. I’m a lifelong mountain guy and follow the mountain regions closer than other parts of the state.

Edited February 22, 20206 yr by The Professor

Does anyone else want to make their own picks? I thought I would post this thread before district play begins just for fun and discussion. If someone can pick most of the regional winners before the districts start that’s pretty good. Occasionally a few get knocked out in districts and don’t make it to the region, especially in non-seeded districts.

It's really tough to pick regions from afar. I have followed every region in the state this year, but the bottom-line is that I haven't had the opportunity to see the top teams from regions further away from me, such as the 1st, 2nd, 15th, 16th, etc.

 

For example, I think Shelby Valley, Paintsville, and Johnson Central are the "BIG 3" in the 15th, but I have only read about them. Hard to know the nuances that will decide the region - or even if there are other, legitimate long-shot candidates.

 

And, of course, tournament matchups will play a big role. Lots of teams out there that won't win their region, but if they get matched up against certain favorites, they have a very strong chance of laying waste to someone else's dreams. Like you say, it's much harder to guesstimate at this time.

 

Hard to argue with your picks, though.

It's really tough to pick regions from afar. I have followed every region in the state this year, but the bottom-line is that I haven't had the opportunity to see the top teams from regions further away from me, such as the 1st, 2nd, 15th, 16th, etc.

 

For example, I think Shelby Valley, Paintsville, and Johnson Central are the "BIG 3" in the 15th, but I have only read about them. Hard to know the nuances that will decide the region - or even if there are other, legitimate long-shot candidates.

 

And, of course, tournament matchups will play a big role. Lots of teams out there that won't win their region, but if they get matched up against certain favorites, they have a very strong chance of laying waste to someone else's dreams. Like you say, it's much harder to guesstimate at this time.

 

Hard to argue with your picks, though.

The one I am most shaky about is Ohio County in the 3rd. I’m like you, I don’t get to see teams in that area of the state and can only go on what I read. But I well know regardless of the season that Owensboro has (17-10 this year) it’s hard to pick against them in the 3rd. A lot of tradition there. They’ve been there and done that, and it’s always played in their backyard.

Don’t overlook Bardstown in the 5th as well.

My picks

 

1. McCracken County

2 Madisonville-North Hopkins

3 Hop-Town

4 Bowling Green

5 Bardstown

6 PRP

7 Ballard

8 South Oldham

9 Covington Catholic

10 GRC

11 Lexington Catholic

12 Lincoln County

13 South Laurel

14 Hazard

15 Johnson Central

16 Ashland

1McCracken County

2 Madisonville-North Hopkins

3 Hop-Town

4 Bowling Green

5 Bardstown

6 Fern Creek

7 Male

8 South Oldham

9 Covington Catholic

10 GRC

11 Henry Clay

12 Lincoln County

13 South Laurel

14 Hazard

15 Johnson Central

16 Ashland

^^^

 

Hopkinsville is in region 2, not 3.

Male hasn’t lost since Howard Fleming has returned and I don’t expect them to lose the rest of the way.

I'll play:

 

1 -- McCracken County

2 -- MNH

3 -- Owensboro

4 -- Bowling Green

5 -- John Hardin

6 -- Fern Creek

7 -- Male

8 -- Collins

9 -- CovCath

10 -- Brossart

11 -- LexCath

12 -- Somerset

13 -- South Laurel

14 -- Hazard

15 -- Shelby Valley

16 -- Ashland

The 12th region is another difficult pick. Lincoln County is rated #1 in Cantrall but the tournament is played at Pulaski County and that could give an edge to the Maroons and the Briar Jumpers. All have good records this year.

Five teams could easily win the 6th region.

 

1. Fern Creek

2. Butler

3. J-Town

4. PRP

5. DeSales

1st-McCracken County

2nd-Madisonville

3rd- Owensboro

4th- Warren Central

5th- John Hardin

6th- Fern Creek

7th- Male

8th- Collins

9th- Covington Catholic

10th- GRC

11th- Henry Clay

12th- Lincoln County

13th- South Laurel

14th- Perry County Central

15th- Johnson Central

16th- Ashland

1 - McCracken County

2 - Madisonville-North Hopkins

3 - Owensboro

4 - Bowling Green

5 - John Hardin

6 - Fern Creek

7 - Male

8 - Collins

9 - Covington Catholic

10 - Bourbon County

11 - Lexington Catholic

12 - Somerset

13 - South Laurel

14 - Hazard

15 - Johnson Central

16 - Ashland

Here are the latest top teams from the weekly regional reviews from BGP’s staff:

 

1 McCracken County

2 Madisonville

3 Ohio County

4 Warren Central

5 John Hardin

6 Fern Creek

7 Male

8 Oldham County

9 Covington Catholic

10 Bourbon County

11 Lexington Catholic

12 Lincoln County

13 South Laurel

14 Hazard

15 Martin County

16 Ashland