Hancock made it to the state finals in 1999, but I don't know about the Crittenden/Metcalfe teams. It's possible, but I don't know that they would have necessarily been favored to beat Pikeville and Co.

Before Metcalfe switched out of the district with Somerset and Danville I don't think they ever even won a district game. When they moved they immediately became a competitor. Yeah, Hancock beat Somerset in the Semifinals in '99. That was because of Mr. Football Travis Atwell other than that year they haven't really competed at a high level.

I would venture to say that a few of those Crittenden, Hancock and Metcalfe teams could have won region 4 in several of those years, especially when Somerset was playing in the district with Danville and Pikeville was having some down years...

 

You'll have to pick your spots for that statement to work...

Before Metcalfe switched out of the district with Somerset and Danville I don't think they ever even won a district game. When they moved they immediately became a competitor. Yeah, Hancock beat Somerset in the Semifinals in '99. That was because of Mr. Football Travis Atwell other than that year they haven't really competed at a high level.

Metcalfe is a better program now that it was before the move to Region 1. I'm not saying they would have the same amount of success in their old district that they've had in recent years. Their first good class played in District 4 as freshmen and sophomores, then moved westward and started to have success as upperclassmen.

I would venture to say that a few of those Crittenden, Hancock and Metcalfe teams could have won region 4 in several of those years, especially when Somerset was playing in the district with Danville and Pikeville was having some down years...

 

LOL. No way. I don't know of any year one of those teams would have won Region 4. MAYBE the year Crittenden won the title in a close one over Paintsville...but that's it...

Hancock made it to the state finals in 1999, but I don't know about the Crittenden/Metcalfe teams. It's possible, but I don't know that they would have necessarily been favored to beat Pikeville and Co.

 

 

 

Hancock wouldn't have won Region 4 that year...

Pikeville lost to Beechwood on a couple of hail marys where they lost a 19-10 lead in the last 5 minutes in a miracle finish at Beechwood, then Beechwood beat Hancock by like a drum the finals in a game that wasn't even that close...

 

Pikeville would have done the same thing to Hancock, or worse. That one still hurts because not one miracle but two at Beechwood cost Pikeville another state championship. What makes it even worse is Pikeville didn't have a head coach that year, he quit and/or was let go in the middle of the season.

Playing in NKY. 1A, the district is so tough that the out of district games, in some cases, are easier opponents. When one has to play Beechwood, Holy Cross and NCC, in consecutive weeks, that is a monumental task.

LOL. No way. I don't know of any year one of those teams would have won Region 4. MAYBE the year Crittenden won the title in a close one over Paintsville...but that's it...

Crittenden beat Paintsville 16-6, and best I remember, the game wasn't much in doubt. It certainly wasn't the Rockets' toughest playoff game.

Hancock wouldn't have won Region 4 that year...

Pikeville lost to Beechwood on a couple of hail marys where they lost a 19-10 lead in the last 5 minutes in a miracle finish at Beechwood, then Beechwood beat Hancock by like a drum the finals in a game that wasn't even that close...

 

Pikeville would have done the same thing to Hancock, or worse.

Debatable.

 

Beechwood and Hancock was a tight game for a half, and the Tigers pulled away in the second half.

Johnson Central---weak district!

Johnson Central---weak district!

 

 

I disagree on this one. While some of the teams (Lawrence Co., Boyd Co., and Greenup Co.) weren't as strong as they have been in years past, there are still some pretty good teams (Ashland, Mason Co.) in the district. Johnson Central is just that much better than everyone in the district this year.

I know alot of folks put alot of stock in schedule strength...Do you feel a weak district helps a team or hurts a team...Normally, teams last 4-5 weeks of the regular season are played against district competition...Here's several reasons you could go either way:

 

1) Easier district schedule can help you heal injuries and rest your starters...

2) Easier district schedule usually means you have a better chance of going farther in the playoffs and may only have to knock out 1 or 2 good teams instead of 3-4 to get to state...

3) Easier district schedule can help you work on areas in your teams game that you may not try against better competition...

 

1) Tougher district schedule helps you be better prepared come playoff time and usually requires your starters to play more meaningful minutes...

2) Tougher district schedules keep you from becoming complacent...

3) Tougher district schedules will exploit your teams weak areas and make you more aware of what you need to work on...

 

You have succinctly capsulized what I have been wondering for a while. Perhaps there is no objective answer. Over the past nine years Jefferson County 4A teams have taken state. Four champions came from Trinity's district (Trinity), and the other five were Male/X. Would the results differ had Trinity been in the district with either Male or X, and had Male or X been the lone power in Trinity's district? Any thoughts or analysis?

The 2 years Belfry won the state, they had a weak district. Prestonsburg was the only team that gave them a challenge.

I thought it would be interesting to do some checking into some statistics for this thread. I found out some interesting things (Of course, I only had to time to do 4-A schools)

 

If you take into account every 4-A team's opponents winning percentage, here are some interesting details. However keep in mind, this is not a fool proof strength of schedule (sos) calculation, but when you look at the numbers (when i refer to winning %, i am talking about their opponents win %):

 

The team that that played the toughest schedule was Paul Dunbar with their opponents win% at 67%

Here is a breakdown of opponents win% of all 54 4-A teams:

Team Record Opp. Win%

1. Paul Dunbar 1-9 67%

2. Manual 6-4 66%

3. St. X 8-2 64%

4. Scott Co 7-3 63%

5. PRP 7-3 62%

6. Christian Co 7-3 62%

7. Bryan Station 2-8 62%

8. Butler 3-7 61%

9. Henry Clay 9-1 60%

10. Nelson Co. 3-7 59%

11. North Laurel 3-7 59%

12. Henderson Co. 7-2 57%

13. Tates Creek 6-4 57%

14. South Laurel 3-7 57%

15. Male 9-0 56%

16. Dixie Heights 5-5 56%

17. Scott 1-9 56%

18. Warren Central 8-2 55%

19. Greenwood 3-7 55%

20. John Hardin 6-3 54%

21. Simon Kenton 6-4 54%

22. Seneca 5-5 54%

23. Whitley Co. 2-8 54%

24. Barren Co. 2-8 54%

25. Boone Co. 6-4 53%

26. Lafayette 10-0 53%

27. Owensboro 8-1 52%

28. Marshall Co. 7-3 52%

29. Daviess Co. 3-7 52%

30. Ohio Co. 2-8 52%

31. Graves Co. 8-2 51%

32. Conner 3-7 51%

33. Fern Creek 2-8 51%

34. Oldham co 2-8 51%

35. Woodford Co. 7-3 50%

36. Holmes 4-6 50%

37. Ballard 6-4 49%

38. Eastern 3-7 49%

39. Lincoln Co. 9-1 48%

40. Apollo 7-3 48%

41. North Hardin 6-4 48%

42. Shelby Co 5-5 48%

43. Iroquois 4-6 48%

44. Meade Co. 5-5 47%

45. Central Hardin 3-7 47%

46. Trinity 9-1 46%

47. Montgomery Co 5-5 46%

48. G.R. Clark 6-4 44%

49. Southern 5-5 44%

50. Ryle 8-2 43%

51. Bullitt Central 3-7 43%

52. Grayson Co. 3-7 42%

53. Madison Central 6-4 41%

54. Campbell Co. 7-3 38%

You have succinctly capsulized what I have been wondering for a while. Perhaps there is no objective answer. Over the past nine years Jefferson County 4A teams have taken state. Four champions came from Trinity's district (Trinity), and the other five were Male/X. Would the results differ had Trinity been in the district with either Male or X, and had Male or X been the lone power in Trinity's district? Any thoughts or analysis?

 

Possibly...as good as St X and Male are, there are years that PRP, Butler and Manual have also had really good teams whereas Trinity is usually in a league of there own with the occassional good Ballard or Eastern squad. With this in mind, I'd say the easier schedule has been beneficial for Trinity. On the other side of that though, Trinity's semifinal game against the Lex region is usually tougher than Male and X's..

Crittenden beat Paintsville 16-6, and best I remember, the game wasn't much in doubt. It certainly wasn't the Rockets' toughest playoff game.

I was just a youngin but wasnt the Rockets toughest playoff game that year against Fulton Co.?

 

Also, an interesting note Crittenden lost 1 game that year, as did Mayfield who won 2A that year, both teams lost to Caldwell Co..... And those were Caldwell's only wins that year.