November 17, 20169 yr Cool. The talking heads keep mentioning Louisville played Duke and UVA close and shouldn't have apparently. Just posting to reference that. They keep talking about it because UofL schedule is garbage. When you don't have SOS on your side you better at least smoke the bad teams you play. The other teams you are mentioning have really good wins to more than take care of any close games they may have had.
November 17, 20169 yr Author They keep talking about it because UofL schedule is garbage. When you don't have SOS on your side you better at least smoke the bad teams you play. The other teams you are mentioning have really good wins to more than take care of any close games they may have had. Cool.
November 17, 20169 yr If they blow out Houston on the road tonight, will that change any minds? Or what if they only win by a last second field goal or something? Big game for the Cardinals tonight.
November 17, 20169 yr They've played two teams that have a better than .500 record. They aren't going to win their conference. They need Michigan to win. Ohio State wins out and Ohio State is in over them, as would be the winner of the Penn State/Wisconsin B1G title game. Washington wins the Pac-12 title they're in over Louisville. Will have played a much tougher schedule. Oklahoma would be an interesting case, but I think they, like Louisville, need a lot of help to have a chance. Is that the same Oklahoma who has 2 losses and equal to or less top 25 wins than literally every other team in the country? I get comparing schedules to split hairs, but what kind of logic could put a two loss team over the overwhelming Heisman winner a couple yards away from an undefeated record? This isn't the college basketball selection where teams play their entire conference plus more out of conference games than a football team plays in its entire season.
November 17, 20169 yr Another consideration. Two years ago when Barrett got hurt, prior to the B1G championship game, everyone assumed OSU's playoff chances were toast. I recall the committee discussing the fact that they blew out Wisconsin with Cardale showed them that not only did OSU not miss a beat, but that they may have looked even better when deciding who the top 4 teams were in the country. Is it possible that even if chalk happens everywhere else, but OSU blows out Michigan because they aren't the same without their starting QB, the committee might recognize Michigan isn't one of the 4 best teams with a backup QB in?
November 17, 20169 yr They keep talking about it because UofL schedule is garbage. When you don't have SOS on your side you better at least smoke the bad teams you play. The other teams you are mentioning have really good wins to more than take care of any close games they may have had. I agree that good wins can take care of close games. Good wins, however, should not take care of losses, particularly bad losses. In a sample size of 12 or 13 games, 1 loss can be explained away. 2 losses, however, is 15-17% of the schedule! Among the teams that could end with 1 loss, I would argue for UofL above all others except Bama, tOSU & Mich. I can make a credible argument that they belong over a 1 loss Clemson team, but I realize that's not going to go very far and I can live with being behind a 1 loss Clemson team. I also would make an argument to be ahead of a 1 loss Washington team (primarily on their non-conference SOS - which they totally control and PAC12 rankings being way off - e.g., Wash. St. has 2 losses [including a season opener loss to FCS E. Washington] & Colorado also has 2 losses, but since the losses were early in the year, they are getting credit for passing tired / awful horses in the PAC12 since then [OR, Stanford, Cal, etc.] as the season concludes). 2 loss teams - even if they are their Conference Champs, don't do it for me over a 1 loss team whose only loss is at Clemson in a barnburner. As someone else pointed out, UofL only controls 4 games on their schedule and 2 of them haven't even been played yet. 8 of 10 games played are mandated by ACC and UofL has no control over it.
November 17, 20169 yr Author If they blow out Houston on the road tonight, will that change any minds? No. 'Cuz haters gonna hate.
November 17, 20169 yr No. 'Cuz haters gonna hate. Houston as well as UK are going to have to be ready for UL to try to put up 80 points if possible.
November 18, 20169 yr UK is the same as Iowa. The only difference is that Louisville will be at home. To say that UK has no chance is just wrong. What if it snows? What if it rains? What if UL has to suspend 7 starters before the game? What if UL comes out flat and falls behind? There are a million things that can happen. UK is a bowl team and they will lay it all on the line with no pressure. Never underestimate a rival. Fumble and a turnover 5 seconds into the game for Louisville. Crazy things can happen...
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