October 24, 20169 yr I am not sure what is the best case scenario for UL. Somehow for Clemson to lose twice in the regular season or having other schools slip up so that the committee has to take two teams from the same conference? Unless the mindset changes, the committee seems pretty adamant about taking 4 different conference winners.
October 24, 20169 yr I am not sure what is the best case scenario for UL. Somehow for Clemson to lose twice in the regular season or having other schools slip up so that the committee has to take two teams from the same conference? Unless the mindset changes, the committee seems pretty adamant about taking 4 different conference winners. I personally think it is for Clemson to win out but lose ACC Champ game.
October 24, 20169 yr I personally think it is for Clemson to win out but lose ACC Champ game. If that happens nobody from the ACC gets in.
October 24, 20169 yr Michigan-Ohio St is always special, but this year ... wow! Must, must win for the Buckeyes.
October 24, 20169 yr If that happens nobody from the ACC gets in. Who gets in over them unless the Big 12 has an undefeated team?
October 24, 20169 yr Best case scenario for UofL would need to look something like: 1.Washington losing 2.Clemson dropping a regular season and conference championship 3.tOSU losing to Michigan 4. West Virginia and Baylor both lose 5. It would be nice if Alabama lost 6. And now I'm realizing that I might as well just disregarded my list and say everyone lose, but here we are.
October 24, 20169 yr Best case scenario for UofL would need to look something like: 1.Washington losing 2.Clemson dropping a regular season and conference championship 3.tOSU losing to Michigan 4. West Virginia and Baylor both lose 5. It would be nice if Alabama lost 6. And now I'm realizing that I might as well just disregarded my list and say everyone lose, but here we are. 1.Washington losing (I think if they lose a game, but still win Pac 12 they are in) 2.Clemson dropping a regular season and conference championship (This happens UofL is probably in imo) 3.tOSU losing to Michigan (I don't think it matters who wins, the loser isn't getting in unless there are 3 2 loss conference champs and that isn't happening, UofL would get in over Michigan when they lose) 4. West Virginia and Baylor both lose (I think everyone outside of Morgantown and Waco is rooting for this, nobody wants to see them get dismantled in the playoff) 5. It would be nice if Alabama lost (It would be nice if Alabama lost every game, but thats just me, but since the odds of Bama losing 2 games are slim, I think UofL wants them to stay undefeated. If they lose to LSU or Auburn, assuming they both run the table, they wouldn't get in the SEC Champ game and that would mean Alabama and UofL would be vying for the same spot and we all know who would get that spot) 6. And now I'm realizing that I might as well just disregarded my list and say everyone lose, but here we are. (Chaos is your friend)
October 24, 20169 yr Lots of season left. UofL only controls THAT they win and HOW they win. Sadly, they'll need style points like the NC St. game and to avoid ugly Ws like against Duke. At Houston is brutal. That will be Houston's "bowl game" and even if UofL wins, they'll get little credit for it. If they lose, mid-range bowl. PAC - Washington must lose. Undefeated team gets in Final 4. 1 loss PAC champ does not get in. BIG - 1 loss MI or OSU as Champ would likely edge 1 loss UofL out due to SOS & 13th game. If it's OSU, I'd argue UofL's loss at Clemson is a "better loss" than OSU's at Happy Valley. Not sure many would listen. 1 loss MI who doesn't make championship game would be tough to edge out as well. Best case, MI wins out and Big only takes 1 of the 4 spots. BIG12 - Undefeated Baylor or WVU probably goes over 1 loss UofL. Need both to lose. ACC - 1 loss Clemson likely gets in before UofL due to head-to-head. Not sure that's right, but probably true. Barring 2 losses by Clemson, probably better to root for them to be undefeated to make UofL's only loss look that much better. SEC - 1 loss Alabama probably gets in before UofL due to "SEC-lust" by all the commentators. If A&M runs the table impressively and finishes 11-1, they'd have an argument that their 1 loss at Tuscaloosa was better / as good as UofL's 1 loss at Clemson. Boise St. & W. Michigan -- 1 loss UofL would go before either of these even if they stay undefeated. Not sure that's right, but probably true.
October 24, 20169 yr Lots of season left. UofL only controls THAT they win and HOW they win. Sadly, they'll need style points like the NC St. game and to avoid ugly Ws like against Duke. At Houston is brutal. That will be Houston's "bowl game" and even if UofL wins, they'll get little credit for it. If they lose, mid-range bowl. PAC - Washington must lose. Undefeated team gets in Final 4. 1 loss PAC champ does not get in. BIG - 1 loss MI or OSU as Champ would likely edge 1 loss UofL out due to SOS & 13th game. If it's OSU, I'd argue UofL's loss at Clemson is a "better loss" than OSU's at Happy Valley. Not sure many would listen. 1 loss MI who doesn't make championship game would be tough to edge out as well. Best case, MI wins out and Big only takes 1 of the 4 spots. BIG12 - Undefeated Baylor or WVU probably goes over 1 loss UofL. Need both to lose. ACC - 1 loss Clemson likely gets in before UofL due to head-to-head. Not sure that's right, but probably true. Barring 2 losses by Clemson, probably better to root for them to be undefeated to make UofL's only loss look that much better. SEC - 1 loss Alabama probably gets in before UofL due to "SEC-lust" by all the commentators. If A&M runs the table impressively and finishes 11-1, they'd have an argument that their 1 loss at Tuscaloosa was better / as good as UofL's 1 loss at Clemson. Boise St. & W. Michigan -- 1 loss UofL would go before either of these even if they stay undefeated. Not sure that's right, but probably true. 1 loss Pac 12 champ gets in over UofL. A Big 10 champion in Ohio State would have 2 maybe 3 wins better than any of UofL's wins I don't think there is a case to be made against Ohio State in that situation other than UofL has a better loss, but not as many good wins unless you count the style points from blowing out inferior competition. A 1 loss non conference champ in Bama definitely gets in over Louisville, but that is the only non conference champ I think gets in over them.
October 24, 20169 yr It's so cool (and still pretty unbelievable) that it's week #9 and Louisville remains in College Football Playoff discussions. What an unexpectedly fun season this has been - it will be interesting to see how it all plays out!
October 25, 20169 yr 1 loss Pac 12 champ gets in over UofL. A Big 10 champion in Ohio State would have 2 maybe 3 wins better than any of UofL's wins I don't think there is a case to be made against Ohio State in that situation other than UofL has a better loss, but not as many good wins unless you count the style points from blowing out inferior competition. A 1 loss non conference champ in Bama definitely gets in over Louisville, but that is the only non conference champ I think gets in over them. I think you're right on OSU & Bama (which suggests UofL fans root for Clemson, MI & Bama and try to thread the needle). I think you're wrong on Pac12. Only 2 teams could be 1 loss champs of Pac12: Washington could lose to Utah on SAT and then win out (presumably beating Utah again in the Pac12 championship game). Washington could beat Utah on SAT and then lose another game and then beat Utah again in the Pac12 championship game. Utah has to beat Washington this week and likely again in the Pac12 championship game since they have already lost to Cal. In any of those 3 scenarios you'd be looking at UofL's loss at Clemson and SOS of Pac12 v. ACC. The Pac12 is awful. Washington's "signature win" against Stanford at Home now looks very pedestrian. Oregon and USC are WAY off their normal performances which drags an already weak conference even further down. I assume you agree a 1 loss Washington team that doesn't make the Pac12 Championship game (e.g., 1 loss is to Wash. St. final game of season) does not get in over a 1 loss UofL team, right?
October 25, 20169 yr I think you're right on OSU & Bama (which suggests UofL fans root for Clemson, MI & Bama and try to thread the needle). I think you're wrong on Pac12. Only 2 teams could be 1 loss champs of Pac12: Washington could lose to Utah on SAT and then win out (presumably beating Utah again in the Pac12 championship game). Washington could beat Utah on SAT and then lose another game and then beat Utah again in the Pac12 championship game. Utah has to beat Washington this week and likely again in the Pac12 championship game since they have already lost to Cal. In any of those 3 scenarios you'd be looking at UofL's loss at Clemson and SOS of Pac12 v. ACC. The Pac12 is awful. Washington's "signature win" against Stanford at Home now looks very pedestrian. Oregon and USC are WAY off their normal performances which drags an already weak conference even further down. I assume you agree a 1 loss Washington team that doesn't make the Pac12 Championship game (e.g., 1 loss is to Wash. St. final game of season) does not get in over a 1 loss UofL team, right? The Pac 12 sucks. I agree. But UofL SOS is doing them zero favors. They have played 2 legitimate teams all year and are 1-1. Houston would have helped but they have fallen off the face of the earth. A Washington team who loses to Utah this week or USC or someone else, but still wins the Conference championship gets unless the Big 12 has an undefeated team. Here is the scenario that I see (in order from most secure to get in the playoff) The SEC, Big 10, ACC, and Pac 12 champs get in assuming they have 1 loss or less. The Big 12 has to have an undefeated team and if they do then it probably knocks Washington (or Utah potentially) out. UofL best case scenario is this. Alabama rolls and there is zero chaos in the SEC. Wisconsin beats Ohio State/Mich. in Big 10 Champ game. Clemson loses to VT or UNC in ACC champ game. Basically chaos has to happen, but I personally think some chaos will happen.
October 26, 20169 yr The Pac 12 sucks. I agree. But UofL SOS is doing them zero favors. They have played 2 legitimate teams all year and are 1-1. Houston would have helped but they have fallen off the face of the earth. A Washington team who loses to Utah this week or USC or someone else, but still wins the Conference championship gets unless the Big 12 has an undefeated team. Here is the scenario that I see (in order from most secure to get in the playoff) The SEC, Big 10, ACC, and Pac 12 champs get in assuming they have 1 loss or less. The Big 12 has to have an undefeated team and if they do then it probably knocks Washington (or Utah potentially) out. UofL best case scenario is this. Alabama rolls and there is zero chaos in the SEC. Wisconsin beats Ohio State/Mich. in Big 10 Champ game. Clemson loses to VT or UNC in ACC champ game. Basically chaos has to happen, but I personally think some chaos will happen. UofL SOS is not good, but it's not like Washington or Utah is any better. Non-conference UofL has Charlotte, @ Marshall, @ Houston & UK. Washington has Rutgers (OMG), Idaho and Portland St. - 3 home games against marshmallows! Utah has Southern Utah, BYU & @ San Jose St. If the other 3 spots are convincingly taken and it comes down to UofL at 11-1 or Washington / Utah at 12-1, there's gonna be a lot of screamin' and walin'! Let's see how this weekend shakes out (Washington v. Utah, Clemson v. FSU, Nebraska v. Wisconsin, etc.) and we can pick up this discussion on MON!
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