November 11, 201510 yr As many know, I'm a proponent of the KenPom system of ranking college basketball teams based on their efficiencies. I thought it would be fun to compare how things end up in March to where they are starting in November. 1. Duke 2. Kentucky 3. Virginia 4. Kansas 5. Villanova 6. Arizona 7. North Carolina 8. Gonzaga 9. Wisconsin 10. Baylor 13. Indiana 14. Cincinnati 16. Notre Dame 25. Louisville 28. West Virginia 29. Butler 31. Xavier 42. Ohio State 44. Florida 65. Dayton 163. Murray State 166. Miami OH 208. Morehead State 218. Western Kentucky 234. Eastern Kentucky 271. Northern Kentucky
November 12, 201510 yr How can their be rankings or ratings of efficiency when no one has played a game yet? Is this based off of historical data...if it is that is crazy for college basketball when you have so much turnover of the top players each year.
November 12, 201510 yr Author How can their be rankings or ratings of efficiency when no one has played a game yet? Is this based off of historical data...if it is that is crazy for college basketball when you have so much turnover of the top players each year. From his site (note: he is really good): Preseason ratings were posted over the weekend. Here’s a reminder as to what goes into them… The components and weighting is based on a regression of the past nine seasons. The system is, by 2015 standards, pretty simple. It doesn’t try to project playing time for individual players. It doesn’t know about transfers, and all but 5-star recruits are virtually ignored. If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving. In the most general sense, the main ingredient in the system is inertia. If a team has been good in the recent past, it’s likely to be rated well in the preseason. As much as we like to think of college basketball as this crazy sport where anything can happen, there’s just not much class mobility in the game. I think we all understand that the Big Ten will always be better than the SWAC, but even within conferences there’s a clear power structure that might vary from year to year but is very predictable over the long term.
November 12, 201510 yr Duke is #1 so obviously this dude doesn't know anything and has you brainwashed MTGL. Be careful, dude.
November 12, 201510 yr Author I'm not putting a ton of credence in where these start, but I do think it will be interesting to see how accurate his predictive software is in March. I think his ranking of teams as the season unfolds is the most solid. As long as the eventual National Champion is neither of his preseason top 2, I'm good!
November 12, 201510 yr and all but 5-star recruits are virtually ignored. Well I guess that makes sense why Kentucky & Duke are top two.
November 12, 201510 yr Duke is #1 so obviously this dude doesn't know anything and has you brainwashed MTGL. Be careful, dude. :lol2::lol2:
November 12, 201510 yr Seeing Indiana at #13...I've thought for a while now that the Hoosiers would be solid this year. They have a good starting five and some good guards. Crean is what would scare me if I was Bench/a Hoosiers fan.
November 12, 201510 yr Whelp that's all the information I need to know Duke is going back to back. Pack it in boys it's over.
November 12, 201510 yr I'm not putting a ton of credence in where these start, but I do think it will be interesting to see how accurate his predictive software is in March. I think his ranking of teams as the season unfolds is the most solid. As long as the eventual National Champion is neither of his preseason top 2, I'm good! Oh come on, us Dukies weren't even that bad. This forum would still be unreadable if UK won it last year.
November 12, 201510 yr Dayton Twitter was all in a tizzy about these rankings. That's hilarious to me. Nothing like getting worked up about the numbers a mathematical formula churns out before any games are played. Flyers lost their top scorer, the best returning player is suspended until at least January and I have my doubts about him ever putting on a Flyers uniform ever again, and we're expected to rely heavily on a transfer player. I think UD is right about where they ought to be. We'll see if they're any better. Archie definitely hasn't made it easy on himself given that at least one of his players gets chucked off the team every year, but we'll see what he can do with this group. He'll have actual depth at most positions for the first time in his tenure.
November 12, 201510 yr Whelp that's all the information I need to know Duke is going back to back. Pack it in boys it's over. I don't care if they go back to back as long as they never lose to UK or UNC.
November 13, 201510 yr Seeing Indiana at #13...I've thought for a while now that the Hoosiers would be solid this year. They have a good starting five and some good guards. Crean is what would scare me if I was Bench/a Hoosiers fan. Your forgetting who's coaching that group of kids. They won't be a top 25 team by seasonds end.
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