July 7, 201511 yr A post in another thread got me to thinking about starting this thread... This is of course how the last election went in 2012.
July 7, 201511 yr Author 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College Even if the Republican candidate picks up Ohio, Virginia and Florida as seen here, they still come up short if everything else goes like 3 years ago.
July 7, 201511 yr Author Which Blue States are in play this election for the Republicans? Which Red States are in play for the Democrats this time around?
July 7, 201511 yr I would say Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa would be the most likely in play that were blue. I'll go with Missouri and maybe North Carolina in play that were red. That's not counting Virginia, Florida, or Ohio. Really the election comes down to the same 8-10 states every year.
July 7, 201511 yr I'm just really geeked about cancelling out twotoplace's vote that I can't stand the anticipation.
July 7, 201511 yr I'm just really geeked about cancelling out twotoplace's vote that I can't stand the anticipation. You're flattering yourself. Your vote in '16 won't mean much. Neither will mine. Kentucky isn't on either party's radar.
July 7, 201511 yr You're flattering yourself. Your vote in '16 won't mean much. Neither will mine. Kentucky isn't on either party's radar. That is correct. I will still do my civic duty, as I'm one of those old-school "don't complain if you didn't vote" types. But if the Bluegrass state doesn't go at least something along the lines of 59-41, I'll be stunned.
July 7, 201511 yr I would say Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa would be the most likely in play that were blue. I'll go with Missouri and maybe North Carolina in play that were red. That's not counting Virginia, Florida, or Ohio. Really the election comes down to the same 8-10 states every year. Your last sentence hits the nail on the head. I think Nevada-Colorado-New Mexico are probably safe for Democrats, largely because of the growing Hispanic populations in those states. I think the odds of Hillary duplicating what Obama did in '12 are excellent. I don't believe this election will be that close.
July 7, 201511 yr Kentucky isn't on either party's radar. Is it ever? I fully believe our vote as Kentuckians will never mean much when it comes to electing a President.
July 7, 201511 yr That is correct. I will still do my civic duty, as I'm one of those old-school "don't complain if you didn't vote" types. But if the Bluegrass state doesn't go at least something along the lines of 59-41, I'll be stunned. Jefferson County, Fayette County, and maybe a couple counties in the Cincy area will vote blue. All others will be red. Just like every election.
July 7, 201511 yr Which Blue States are in play this election for the Republicans? Which Red States are in play for the Democrats this time around? President Obama carried Florida, Ohio, and Virginia by less than 4%, so obviously those would seem to be in play. Florida was also under that threshold in 2008 after being red in both 2000 & 2004. President Bush carried Florida by just a hair over 5% in 2004, the only time that's happened since 1996. It's always in play. Virginia had been solidly blue in 2008 and dropped by 2.5% in the margin (to 3.87%) in 2012, so could be trending back to its natural inclination (it had gone red every year from 1952 on except for 1964 until President Obama carried it both times). Ohio hasn't been carried by more than 5% since 1996, and they're always on the fence (they also always pick the winner). Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire were all "battleground" states in the last election that President Obama carried by 4-8 percentage points. All were significantly closer in the last election compared to the one before. North Carolina was the only state that the Republicans carried by less than 7% in the last election, and they had taken that one from the Democrats, who carried it in 2008. Missouri, Montana, and Georgia were the only ones under that threshold in 2008, and all were more comfortable the last time around. Plus, each are traditionally Republican (though Clinton carried Missouri both times and won over Georgia in 1992). The point being, that the Republicans tend to win their states comfortably, unless they're taking them from the Democrats (or it is one of the wishy washy ones we've mentioned). Other than North Carolina, I don't know that there's one they held last election "in play".
July 7, 201511 yr I'm just really geeked about cancelling out twotoplace's vote that I can't stand the anticipation. I was going to let your comment slide, but then I said "Nah." It must be frustrating to know that nationally, millions more voters align with me, than with you and your fellow BGP pachyderms. And the numbers are increasing every month. Which is why a Hillary landslide in '16 is a possibility.
July 7, 201511 yr Author I was going to let your comment slide, but then I said "Nah." It must be frustrating to know that nationally, millions more voters align with me, than with you and your fellow BGP pachyderms. And the numbers are increasing every month. Which is why a Hillary landslide in '16 is a possibility. Seems to be eroding according to Gallup [TABLE=class: wikitable] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 6]Number of U.S. States[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]Year[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Solid Dem[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Lean Dem[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Competitive[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Lean GOP[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Solid GOP[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Net Dem[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2008[/TD] [TD]29[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]+30 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]+28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]+12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]+1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]+7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2013[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]+3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2014[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]+2 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
July 7, 201511 yr Zero chance HRC has the same level of support as President Obama. Her "likeable" rating will be a challenge.
July 7, 201511 yr Author Zero chance HRC has the same level of support as President Obama. Her "likeable" rating will be a challenge. Which states do you see flipping this election? I agree she isn't as "Likable" as the President, but I think at this point in our country more voters than not only see ® or (D) when they go in the voting booth.
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