July 7, 201511 yr Seems to be eroding according to Gallup [TABLE=class: wikitable] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=colspan: 6]Number of U.S. States[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]Year[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Solid Dem[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Lean Dem[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Competitive[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Lean GOP[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Solid GOP[/TH] [TH=width: 14%]Net Dem[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2008[/TD] [TD]29[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]+30 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]+28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]+12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]+1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]+7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2013[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]+3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2014[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]+2 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I'm talking demographics. Used to be that a candidate like Romney could slam-dunk the white vote, which he did, and cruise to victory. The country is changing.
July 7, 201511 yr Which states do you see flipping this election? I agree she isn't as "Likable" as the President, but I think at this point in our country more voters than not only see ® or (D) when they go in the voting booth. I think there are lot of people in a few states who are not tied to one side. In those states she will not be as successful as the President. She just doesn't come across well.
July 7, 201511 yr Which states do you see flipping this election? I agree she isn't as "Likable" as the President, but I think at this point in our country more voters than not only see ® or (D) when they go in the voting booth. Recent Marquette University poll had Hillary with a double-digit lead in Wisconsin over Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in a potential presidential match-up. Do not overlook Hillary's appeal, especially after Donald Trump gets done trashing the GOP.
July 7, 201511 yr Recent Marquette University poll had Hillary with a double-digit lead in Wisconsin over Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in a potential presidential match-up. Do not overlook Hillary's appeal, especially after Donald Trump gets done trashing the GOP. She is the obvious favorite simply off of past elections and demographics. The GOP IMO needs someone who is not "far right" in order to have a chance to beat her. The GOP challenge is having their final candidate survive the primary battle somewhat unscathed. The more that get in the better it is for HRC.
July 7, 201511 yr Is it ever? I fully believe our vote as Kentuckians will never mean much when it comes to electing a President. Last time was probably when Clinton faced George H.W. Bush.
July 7, 201511 yr Last time was probably when Clinton faced George H.W. Bush. I've always somewhat supported the Electoral College concept. However, it's becoming more and more obvious that many states are already in the column for a particular side. I'm not sure if that's good.
July 7, 201511 yr A ticket with either Bush or Rubio as the headliner could help sway Florida. Ohio & Virginia are in play for both sides, but the GOP will have work to do in both states. But I'll say Florida & Nevada are the 2 most likely to flip from blue to red. And I agree with UKMF that Missouri & North Carolina are the most likely to go from red to blue. I also agree with most everything Clizzy has said. Hillary isn't the most likeable candidate in the world. Say what you want about Obama, but his greatest strength--like George W. Bush before him--is winning elections.
July 7, 201511 yr Voter turnout is a major component in analyzing these things. I'm wondering if a Clinton v. Bush race would keep a lot of people home. I can't imagine I'll be racing to the polls if that's the case. The Democrats have no viable alternative to Clinton. Maybe Sanders makes some kind of fairy tale run, capitalizing on an uninspiring field and a Clinton implosion, but odds aren't in his favor. Just about any analysis of modern elections would predict Bush to win the nomination. But, while anything can happen, I don't see the other candidates being able to withstand the Clinton machine. Paul is probably the most viable alternative. Maybe even Christie if he convinces the public to buy his GWB Bridge scandal explanation. Just have the feeling the 2016 election will be...odd.
July 7, 201511 yr I've always somewhat supported the Electoral College concept. However, it's becoming more and more obvious that many states are already in the column for a particular side. I'm not sure if that's good. Agreed. I go back & forth on the electoral college.
July 7, 201511 yr Just have the feeling the 2016 election will be...odd. Same here. I've long felt Hillary was too unlikeable to win the Presidency. At the same time, the electoral map certainly seems to be working against the GOP.
July 7, 201511 yr She is the obvious favorite simply off of past elections and demographics. The GOP IMO needs someone who is not "far right" in order to have a chance to beat her. The GOP challenge is having their final candidate survive the primary battle somewhat unscathed. The more that get in the better it is for HRC. The bolded was the goal of GOP chair Reince Priebus ... try to have an annointing similar to GWB's in '00 -- limit the primary debates, name-calling, rancor, etc. Looks like the opposite is occurring.
July 7, 201511 yr The bolded was the goal of GOP chair Reince Priebus ... try to have an annointing similar to GWB's in '00 -- limit the primary debates, name-calling, rancor, etc. Looks like the opposite is occurring. Isn't HRC being annointed?
July 7, 201511 yr Isn't HRC being annointed? It appears that way. There isn't another Dem in the country who can match her in name recognition or $$.
July 7, 201511 yr Jim Webb. Virginia. Dem Candidate. Discuss? :lol2: He has a powerful resume. He's as inspiring as a door stop.
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