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Chapman Will Close

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Indirectly, it is though. If Leake were a guy that had an ERA under 4 or you could rely on to give you a QS every 5 days, then there's no reason to see about moving anyone. Fact is, he's a weak spot, and they have a better alternative available.

 

Easy question, do you think Leake or Chapman would put up better numbers in the rotation?

If Chapman could make it thru a whole season in the mid 90's, no doubt Chapman. But I don't think he can. And the argument is dynamic with regard to Chapman. Guys gripe about the post season rotation. Now it's replacing Leake. None of that matters really. It's does management think Chapman is better in the rotation or at the end of the pen. The other doesn't enter in the equation as much as we like to argue about it. It's about the missile and him alone.

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Perhaps were looking at it all wrong, perhaps the Reds are worried about their offense and making sure they stay in/win those close games, and keeping Chapman in the bullpen makes that more likely.

 

The good thing about Chapman in the bullpen is that now you have a 1-2 punch with him and Broxton. You dont have to use one 3 days in a row, you can use the other if need be to let the other rest. Both will have their bad nights. Personally I dont think Chapmans body will allow him to be a starter for an extended period of time with out injury or being less effective.

If Chapman ends up being a closer and never a starter as a Red, I will argue that the Reds wasted his talent with their decisions on him.

For comparison, 1990 Starting Pitchers (notice the stats of the 5th starters at the bottom)

 

 

Player G IP W L ERA SO

Tom Browning 35 227.2 15 9 3.80 99

José Rijo 29 197 14 8 2.70 152

Jack Armstrong 29 166 12 9 3.42 110

Danny Jackson 22 117.1 6 6 3.61 76

 

Ron Robinson 6 31.1 2 2 4.88 14

Scott Scudder 21 71.2 5 5 4.90 42

Perhaps were looking at it all wrong, perhaps the Reds are worried about their offense and making sure they stay in/win those close games, and keeping Chapman in the bullpen makes that more likely.

 

The good thing about Chapman in the bullpen is that now you have a 1-2 punch with him and Broxton. You dont have to use one 3 days in a row, you can use the other if need be to let the other rest. Both will have their bad nights. Personally I dont think Chapmans body will allow him to be a starter for an extended period of time with out injury or being less effective.

 

In addition to the rest benefit, I think it also will really help them when they're in tie ballgames on the road. You can bring one in the 9th to snuff out any rally and preserve the tie...and still have one waiting back there to nail it down if/when you get the lead in extras.

If they go with Chapman in the bull pen, I would love to see the Reds blow up the current 9th inning closer formula and go to a Joe Torre/Mariano Rivera post season approach. By that I mean, don't hold off bringing in the closer till the 9th and don't automatically bring in the closer in a save situation. Whoever starts the 8th, if he is mowing them down leave him out there for the 9th. If the guy who starts the 8th gets in a bind, bring in that days closer in the 8th to get that final out and leave him out there for the ninth. In other words, move Broxton and Chapman into more of a 2 inning close role and don't be fixated on doing it by the current book on closing.

If they go with Chapman in the bull pen, I would love to see the Reds blow up the current 9th inning closer formula and go to a Joe Torre/Mariano Rivera post season approach. By that I mean, don't hold off bringing in the closer till the 9th and don't automatically bring in the closer in a save situation. Whoever starts the 8th, if he is mowing them down leave him out there for the 9th. If the guy who starts the 8th gets in a bind, bring in that days closer in the 8th to get that final out and leave him out there for the ninth. In other words, move Broxton and Chapman into more of a 2 inning close role and don't be fixated on doing it by the current book on closing.
Totally agree with that approach. I suppose somewhere in my feeble brain I long for the nasty boys to be back. Maybe the back end of the pen will be similar, I hope.

^ Unfortunately, I would be shocked to see Dusty do that. He is about as by the book as a manager as anyone I can recall.

If they go with Chapman in the bull pen, I would love to see the Reds blow up the current 9th inning closer formula and go to a Joe Torre/Mariano Rivera post season approach. By that I mean, don't hold off bringing in the closer till the 9th and don't automatically bring in the closer in a save situation. Whoever starts the 8th, if he is mowing them down leave him out there for the 9th. If the guy who starts the 8th gets in a bind, bring in that days closer in the 8th to get that final out and leave him out there for the ninth. In other words, move Broxton and Chapman into more of a 2 inning close role and don't be fixated on doing it by the current book on closing.

 

Absolutely agree. I hear arguments about how the bullpen guys are contingent on the rest of the team to get them the lead and you run the risk of (more in playoff situations) not seeing the pitcher at all. But at the same time you also can have one of your best pitchers come in the most crucial point of the game 4-5 times a series. Will Dusty do that? Probably not..

I'm not against Chapman as the closer but I'd personally prefer to see him given the chance as a starter. I'd much rather have a guy with that talent in the starting rotation 10 times out of 10.

Factoring the Verducci effect Chapman should pitch 100 innings.

 

I didn't refuse to acknowledge them it's just that some are meaningless stats. Keeping Chapman as the closer, and the fact that every other MLB team uses a closer, supports that.

 

Is ERA overrated?

 

Lol, so the stats you don't like are "meaningless"? I got it now...

 

I didn't refuse to acknowledge them it's just that some are meaningless stats. Keeping Chapman as the closer, and the fact that every other MLB team uses a closer, supports that.

 

Is ERA overrated?

To your last part, yes, in terms of rating an individual pitcher's performance.

 

Lol, so the stats you don't like are "meaningless"? I got it now...

 

Yeah, that's exactly what I said.

 

Meanwhile, everyone will still use closers and you guys will still think you're right.

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