No way you can say Romney is in the lead. He's made it close and the movement of the polls certainly favor him but he's still behind in the electoral map, although it is within the margin of error. All in all, if I'm within the margin of error I'd like to be in the lead, not behind.

It really depends on where you go. RCP is the best IMO for an up to date snapshot of the race.

 

Found this article interesting....Michigan can't really be a dead heat can it?

 

I like the RCP site but when you look at their averages for each state it's important to look at the numbers they are using. For example, in New Hampshire they have Obama with a .8% lead but when you look at the 5 poll sample they are using one of those polls has Obama up 9%. Does anyone in their right mind think he has a 9% lead in NH? The other 3 of the other 4 polls has Romney ahead and the other has it a tie.

 

Similar story with Wisconsin and Iowa.

No way you can say Romney is in the lead. He's made it close and the movement of the polls certainly favor him but he's still behind in the electoral map, although it is within the margin of error. All in all, if I'm within the margin of error I'd like to be in the lead, not behind.

 

Use you instincts and tell me who's winning this election. Incumbent polling at less they 50% in every major poll, Romney making major moves in states that were thought to be out of play, factor in that most polls are using a sample that reflects the turnout 4 years ago, Romney is seen a the better canidate to fix the economy, more enthusiasm on the Republican side than the Democratic side, Obama using terms like "Romnesia", Romney with a huge edge with Independents, Romney has closed the gap on women voters, and on and on.

 

I just saying there is no denying that Romney has a huge momentum edge and most undecideds break toward the challenger this close to the election.

Romney is seen a the better candidate to fix the economy

 

Though I see Obama winning, I think this is definitely worth mentioning. I will be surprised if Romney wins, but not shocked for this very reason.

As I've said I go to fivethirtyeight.com. They projected the President to get about 319 electoral votes before the debates. It went down after the first debate to about 283. It's not at about 290 where it's been for a while. They also give a % chance of winning. Went from 86% to 63% and now has been sitting about 71%.

 

They put states as strong or leaning.

 

Michigan/PA are strong for the President.

Ohio/NV/NH/VA/CO/IA are all in the "leaning" for the President.

NC/FL are leaning towards the Gov.

Though I see Obama winning, I think this is definitely worth mentioning. I will be surprised if Romney wins, but not shocked for this very reason.

 

Ditto.

As I've said I go to fivethirtyeight.com. They projected the President to get about 319 electoral votes before the debates. It went down after the first debate to about 283. It's not at about 290 where it's been for a while. They also give a % chance of winning. Went from 86% to 63% and now has been sitting about 71%.

 

They put states as strong or leaning.

 

Michigan/PA are strong for the President.

Ohio/NV/NH/VA/CO/IA are all in the "leaning" for the President.

NC/FL are leaning towards the Gov.

 

That looks about right, with one exception being Colorado.

As I've said I go to fivethirtyeight.com. They projected the President to get about 319 electoral votes before the debates. It went down after the first debate to about 283. It's not at about 290 where it's been for a while. They also give a % chance of winning. Went from 86% to 63% and now has been sitting about 71%.

 

They put states as strong or leaning.

 

Michigan/PA are strong for the President.

Ohio/NV/NH/VA/CO/IA are all in the "leaning" for the President.

NC/FL are leaning towards the Gov.

 

Polling numbers in quite a few of those states don't support those classifications.

 

Intrade has President Obama at 59% and Gov. Romney at 41%.

Polling numbers in quite a few of those states don't support those classifications.

 

.

 

538 takes about a dozen polls into account and applies some demographic data as well into an economic model so it may very well differ from a true poll.

538 takes about a dozen polls into account and applies some demographic data as well into an economic model so it may very well differ from a true poll.

 

Just curious, are they a new polling system?

If not, what has their accuracy been like in the past?

 

Once again, I'd be very surprised if Romney wins, but it at least makes November 6th interesting.

Just curious, are they a new polling system?

If not, what has their accuracy been like in the past?

 

Once again, I'd be very surprised if Romney wins, but it at least makes November 6th interesting.

 

Very accurate in 2008 but then again it wasn't that difficult to see it coming 4 years ago.

Just curious, are they a new polling system?

If not, what has their accuracy been like in the past?

 

Once again, I'd be very surprised if Romney wins, but it at least makes November 6th interesting.

 

538 doesn't poll.

538 doesn't poll.

 

Collection of polls, you know what I mean.

Collection of polls, you know what I mean.

 

How would I know "what you mean" when said are they " a new polling system?"

 

But, they are relatively new as MC mentioned.

 

Guy behind it is a baseball nerd who created the PECOTA rating system.

By your logic, VA, FLA, and NH are all swayed towards Mr. Romney.

 

If he wins them all he still doesn't have 270.