I've been watching the state presidential polls in the swing states for about 2 months now. Before the first debate, this election looked to be over. You would expect a negative bounce for Obama after the first debate, but you would also expect some recovery after the last two debates. Well, that has not happened. Ohio for example was approaching a 10 percent lead for Obama, and now it is dead even. Florida has swung from leaning Obama to leaning Romney. The power of television!

It really depends on where you go. RCP is the best IMO for an up to date snapshot of the race.

 

Found this article interesting....Michigan can't really be a dead heat can it?

I think the situation is that every day that goes by shows more evidence of his incompetence for the position.

My personal opinion is that Ohio will not determine the election like many always think it does.

 

Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa will be the key states for Gov. Romney, while Florida is the key for the President. If Gov. Romney can swing those states (polls show pretty much a dead heat in all 3), he's going to be near impossible to defeat. Conversely, if President Obama can win Florida, he'll be near impossible to defeat.

I don't know what you and MC are looking at but while the race has tightened the idea that Romney is in some kind of lead, let alone a commanding lead is pure fantasy. He is not tied in Ohio, Obama has shown a consistent lead there. The only swing state that Romney has show a consistent polling lead is in North Carolina, which I conceded a month ago he'd probably win. Obama has also had a consistent lead in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. They are pretty much tied in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. Go to 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College and give Romney the win in those three states, he's still 13 electoral votes short.

 

By the way if 5 polls come out and 4 show Obama leading and 1 shows Romney tied, the race isn't a tie.

Let me first say, this article has a decidedly pro-Gov. Romney slant (it was written by Karl Rove after all), but I think he does a solid job of at least raising some good points. If the last couple paragraphs are true (and he provides no historic data to support them, so we have to do our own research), President Obama will need to really rachet it up over the next week and a half.

 

Stretch-Run Strategies

I don't know what you and MC are looking at but while the race has tightened the idea that Romney is in some kind of lead, let alone a commanding lead is pure fantasy. He is not tied in Ohio, Obama has shown a consistent lead there. The only swing state that Romney has show a consistent polling lead is in North Carolina, which I conceded a month ago he'd probably win. Obama has also had a consistent lead in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. They are pretty much tied in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. Go to 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College and give Romney the win in those three states, he's still 13 electoral votes short.

 

By the way if 5 polls come out and 4 show Obama leading and 1 shows Romney tied, the race isn't a tie.

 

Wrong about New Hampshire. As you can see here, by your own logic, Romney is ahead.

Wrong about New Hampshire. As you can see here, by your own logic, Romney is ahead.

 

Wrong? Obama has polled ahead in New Hampshire since February aside from a date range from October 19th-21st and now Obama is polling ahead again. Did you look at the graph in the link you posted?

I don't know what you and MC are looking at but while the race has tightened the idea that Romney is in some kind of lead, let alone a commanding lead is pure fantasy. He is not tied in Ohio, Obama has shown a consistent lead there. The only swing state that Romney has show a consistent polling lead is in North Carolina, which I conceded a month ago he'd probably win. Obama has also had a consistent lead in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. They are pretty much tied in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. Go to 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College and give Romney the win in those three states, he's still 13 electoral votes short.

 

By the way if 5 polls come out and 4 show Obama leading and 1 shows Romney tied, the race isn't a tie.

 

Also wrong on Virginia and very wrong on Florida. Look, I'm a Romney supporter and I don't try to hide it, but the momentum of this entire race changed after the first debate and it hasn't stopped. Being as objective a possible it looks like Romney is pulling ahead and will coast to the finish line.

If Obama does lose I think the first debate will be what did him in. That and his poorly ran campaign.

Wrong? Obama has polled ahead in New Hampshire since February aside from a date range from October 19th-21st and now Obama is polling ahead again. Did you look at the graph in the link you posted?

 

The graph takes an average of the 4 polls. When one poll (the only one President Obama has led in in the past month) has a huge discrepency from the rest, it's usually out of wack. When the other polls show a 1-2% gap and that one shows a 9% gap, it should raise eyebrows as to the validity.

 

Also, last I checked, the most recent polls are the only ones that matter.

If Obama does lose I think the first debate will be what did him in.

 

He's not losing, but the first debate is the reason why Romney has dramatically closed the gap.

Wrong? Obama has polled ahead in New Hampshire since February aside from a date range from October 19th-21st and now Obama is polling ahead again. Did you look at the graph in the link you posted?

 

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama

 

 

Do you just not listen to your own arguments?

 

RCP has Obama up by nine in only one poll and Romney tied or leading in the others.

 

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

 

Once again, geez you're wrong. But hey, maybe you'll be able to insult and talk your way out of it.

The Pew Research poll is the one I'm going to pay attention to. In the last two Presidential elections, it has pretty much hit the nail on the head in its final Election Day poll.

I don't know what you and MC are looking at but while the race has tightened the idea that Romney is in some kind of lead, let alone a commanding lead is pure fantasy. He is not tied in Ohio, Obama has shown a consistent lead there. The only swing state that Romney has show a consistent polling lead is in North Carolina, which I conceded a month ago he'd probably win. Obama has also had a consistent lead in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. They are pretty much tied in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. Go to 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College and give Romney the win in those three states, he's still 13 electoral votes short.

 

By the way if 5 polls come out and 4 show Obama leading and 1 shows Romney tied, the race isn't a tie.

 

By your logic, VA, FLA, and NH are all swayed towards Mr. Romney.