Unless something major, and I mean major happens, Romney wins by a landslide. I dont trust the polling, I really don't. Many of you will think I'm crazy, but oh well. The polling has been wrong before and I believe it is very wrong in this election and in this situation. If I am wrong, I will eat crow, but I dont really think I am wrong. Obama's time has run out.

Unless something major, and I mean major happens, Romney wins by a landslide. .

 

There are a few realistic possibilities.

 

The above is not one of them.

Use you instincts and tell me who's winning this election. Incumbent polling at less they 50% in every major poll, Romney making major moves in states that were thought to be out of play, factor in that most polls are using a sample that reflects the turnout 4 years ago, Romney is seen a the better canidate to fix the economy, more enthusiasm on the Republican side than the Democratic side, Obama using terms like "Romnesia", Romney with a huge edge with Independents, Romney has closed the gap on women voters, and on and on.

 

I just saying there is no denying that Romney has a huge momentum edge and most undecideds break toward the challenger this close to the election.

 

I agree with what you said. The most important point you made though is women voters IMO. If it's close to a tie I really don't see how Obama can win. The thing that helps Obama is giving everyone in Ohio a month to vote, but I still don't think it will be enough if the women are anywhere near 50/50.

There are a few realistic possibilities.

 

The above is not one of them.

 

Agreed

Is there any truth to the facts mentioned in the Rove article I linked? Does a sitting President's numbers on Election day tend to be accurately depicted in the final polling numbers? Do sitting President's with less than 50% of votes in states, tend to lose those states come election day? Do undecided independents tend to swing towards the challengers come election day? I haven't been able to find anything one way or the other?

I agree with what you said. The most important point you made though is women voters IMO. If it's close to a tie I really don't see how Obama can win. The thing that helps Obama is giving everyone in Ohio a month to vote, but I still don't think it will be enough if the women are anywhere near 50/50.

 

The major thing I've seen in the most recent polls is that Gov. Romney leads among men by close (not quite as large) to the same margin as President Obama leads among women. If that's the case, it could be very interesting come election day.

Is there any truth to the facts mentioned in the Rove article I linked? Does a sitting President's numbers on Election day tend to be accurately depicted in the final polling numbers? Do sitting President's with less than 50% of votes in states, tend to lose those states come election day? Do undecided independents tend to swing towards the challengers come election day? I haven't been able to find anything one way or the other?

 

I have no evidence to support Rove but logically if you are undecided after 4 years then it seems unlikely you would vote for the sitting President. Does that seem logical?

If he wins them all he still doesn't have 270.

 

I know, but it makes 270 easier to reach. Romney's not going to win Ohio. His best chance is to win Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa in my opinion. 270 is still hard for Romney to reach, but he has a couple different directions he can go now.

It's interesting that Obama has been polling sub-40% in most of the country's whites, but he's in the mid-40s for them in both Iowa and Ohio. The "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial will cost Romney the election IMO.

Will the fact that Gov. Romney could potentially steal one of Maine's 4 electoral votes have an impact on the election? Last I saw he was up in one of the 4 districts.

I have no evidence to support Rove but logically if you are undecided after 4 years then it seems unlikely you would vote for the sitting President. Does that seem logical?

 

What if you were a supporter of McCain in 08' though....Couldn't you logically say if you're that voter and undecided, you're lukewarm at best towards Gov. Romney?

I agree with what you said. The most important point you made though is women voters IMO. If it's close to a tie I really don't see how Obama can win. The thing that helps Obama is giving everyone in Ohio a month to vote, but I still don't think it will be enough if the women are anywhere near 50/50.

 

If that number is a tie then Obama could have some real trouble but I just don't see it.

 

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

 

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

 

The biggest problem for Romney in Ohio is this from the same article.

 

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

^That's just Ohio. I just don't buy into the talking point that he needs to win Ohio to win the election.

Will the fact that Gov. Romney could potentially steal one of Maine's 4 electoral votes have an impact on the election? Last I saw he was up in one of the 4 districts.

 

538 as of this morning had all 4 districts with above a 90% probability going to Obama. I checked Nebraska too which gave Obama an electral vote in 08 and that is not going to happen this time around, all Nebraska districts were above 90% probability for Romney.

I agree with what you said. The most important point you made though is women voters IMO. If it's close to a tie I really don't see how Obama can win. The thing that helps Obama is giving everyone in Ohio a month to vote, but I still don't think it will be enough if the women are anywhere near 50/50.

 

AP articles says that the female vote is even.

 

 

AP poll: Romney erases Obama advantage among women - Yahoo! News

What if you were a supporter of McCain in 08' though....Couldn't you logically say if you're that voter and undecided, you're lukewarm at best towards Gov. Romney?

 

But if you have not warmed up to Obama in 4 years what's going to change your mind in the next 12 days?