nWo

The Pacific Ocean is currently in an ENSO-neutral phase, which means that the surface temperatures are about normal and there aren't any strong El Niño or La Niña signals. This usually means that the weather in Kentucky is pretty normal and that Pacific weather systems don't cause too many problems. The winds over the Pacific are some anomalies in the winds, but they haven't yet caused a full El Niño pattern. Looking ahead, the forecast suggests that ENSO-neutral conditions will likely persist through the spring and early summer of 2026, with about an 80% chance of remaining in this state. This means Kentucky can expect fairly typical weather for the next few months, without any major shifts from the Pacific Ocean. However, there’s a strong possibility that El Niño will develop later in 2026, with a 61% chance of it emerging during the summer or early fall. When El Niño does take hold, Kentucky generally experiences warmer and drier conditions, especially during the winter months. If the El Niño event becomes particularly strong (there’s a 1 in 4 chance of that), the state could see even more pronounced warmth and drier conditions. However, this strong El Niño outcome is not guaranteed and depends on how winds in the Pacific Ocean behave over the next several months. In short, Kentucky will likely see normal weather for the next few months, but if the El Niño develops as predicted, we could experience warmer and drier weather by late 2026, particularly in the fall and winter.

Sorry I haven’t posted more on this, but it’s been a busy day.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 525 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms approaching the region from the west is expected to continue northeastward over the next several hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within this line, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. A low-probability risk for a brief line-embedded tornado exists as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Clarksville TN to 25 miles southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Storms are starting to fire up in southeast Missouri.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell development is expected to occur through late afternoon, with a multi-round of severe storms expected to occur across much of the region through this evening. As deep-layer/low-level winds continue to strengthen, this includes the potential for tornadoes, such of which are likely to be strong/intense (EF2+/EF3+). Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 10 miles east of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. @theguru

The moderate risk remains unchanged in this update. The morning complex of storms (MCS) is currently moving through eastern Illinois and southern Indiana. Further west, in Missouri and western Illinois, residual outflow from the storms is hanging around near the St. Louis metro. Meanwhile, cumulus clouds are developing south of this boundary across southeastern Missouri and into southern Illinois, and cumulus growth within the warm sector is starting to pick up as well. The increasing MLCAPE and steepening lapse rates are advancing northward into southern Missouri and south-central Illinois. Radar is showing occasional attempts at storm initiation just to the west of the Mississippi River within the warm sector. While the details are still developing, it’s likely that a corridor of heightened tornado risk will form from the Missouri Bootheel to southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Strong daytime heating has already contributed to a volatile atmosphere, with MLCAPE (mixed layer CAPE) values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear in place. The conditions from Paducah, KY, and St. Louis, MO, indicate a favorable environment for rotation, with storm-relative helicity (potential for updraft to rotate) values around 200-300 m²/s² in the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere. Supercells capable of producing all forms of severe weather, strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to develop soon. For more detailed info, refer to MCD571. As the storm system progresses, the mode will likely transition to a linear storm structure, with the southward-moving front bringing an increased risk of damaging winds into the evening. Embedded tornadoes, some potentially strong, will continue to be a threat throughout the night.

@theguru

As I expected, the level 4 out of 5 moderate risk area has been expanded into western Kentucky. It now extends west of a line from around Paducah down to around Fulton City. This includes Mayfield. Today’s looking like a rough day for severe weather, especially in the afternoon and evening, with Western Kentucky in the firing line. Right now, storms are moving through Illinois and Indiana, packing severe hail and strong winds, and that activity could spread eastward, affecting Kentucky, including areas in the west. As we get into the afternoon, the atmosphere is going to keep destabilizing, making conditions more favorable for bigger storms. Moisture will be surging into the area, and a surface low will start to strengthen across the upper Midwest, setting the stage for what’s coming. By mid-afternoon, things will really ramp up. Strong winds at higher altitudes, combined with low-level shear, will create ideal conditions for supercells to pop up across the region, particularly near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. That’s where we’re likely to see the most intense activity. The big concern is tornadoes, strong ones, possibly even EF2 or EF3 strength, especially as the storms move into Kentucky. The tornado risk will be high through the evening, and it’s not just the tornado threat; damaging winds and large hail will also be a concern, so stay alert. As evening sets in, storms will probably start to cluster into bigger lines, bringing an increased risk of damaging winds, large hail, and possibly even more tornadoes. This threat won’t ease up until late tonight, so keep an eye on updates and have a plan in place to stay safe. The key hazards for Western Kentucky are tornadoes, winds gusting up to 60+ mph, and hail that could reach 2 inches in diameter. Make sure to stay weather-aware and keep checking for updates throughout the day, especially if you’re in an area that could be impacted.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern and Central Indiana Northern Kentucky * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1110 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Elevated storms will spread generally eastward and potentially pose a hail risk while damaging wind risk may increase into western/southern Indiana as well as an upstream linear cluster of storms moves into the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east of Lafayette IN to 20 miles west southwest of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

An active severe weather day is expected across Kentucky, particularly in the afternoon and evening. The state will experience conditions conducive to strong thunderstorms, including supercells and tornadoes, especially in the western and central regions. Morning (until midday): Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to impact Kentucky, but the severe threat is expected to be lower in the morning. Elevated supercells with mainly a hail threat will persist, primarily affecting the mid-Mississippi Valley to the west. However, strong low-level warm advection will help fuel continued storm development as moisture and instability increase. Afternoon (12 PM to 5 PM): As the day progresses, conditions will become more favorable for intense supercell thunderstorms across central and western Kentucky. The atmosphere will become moderately to strongly unstable, aided by daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates. A 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will provide ample shear for supercells, which are likely to develop along the surface cold front by early afternoon. The primary severe threat during this time will be damaging winds, large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter), and the risk of tornadoes—particularly from central to western Kentucky. A few strong tornadoes (EF-2/EF-3) are possible, especially in areas closer to the line of thunderstorms along the cold front. Evening (5 PM to 10 PM): Severe thunderstorms will likely consolidate into clusters, increasing the potential for widespread damaging winds across Kentucky, especially in the central and eastern regions. The tornado threat will remain present, particularly in line with the squall line (QLCS) and embedded supercells, with strong low-level shear continuing into the night. The risk of tornadoes will persist into the early overnight hours. Late Night (After 10 PM): The severe threat should begin to weaken as instability decreases, but a damaging wind threat may still continue for parts of eastern Kentucky as the convection moves eastward. Overall, Kentucky should be on the lookout for an intensely severe weather day, with a significant risk for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds, particularly in the afternoon and evening. Make sure to stay weather-aware and have a plan for shelter if necessary. The storm prediction center has expanded the level 3 enhanced risk area to cover all of western Kentucky. The level 2 slight risk area now extends to the Cincinnati/NKY and Lexington areas. It also includes the Bowling Green area to around Campbellsville. The level 1 marginal risk covers most of the rest of Kentucky. The one change I expected is the intensity level for western Kentucky has been raised for most of western Kentucky west of the Land Between the Lakes area. The intensity level is now a level 2 for that area. This means max expected tornadoes of EF3+. I wouldn't be surprised to see the intensity level expanded to include more of western Kentucky. @theguru

First one for today. I expect more later. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and Southwest Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday morning from 405 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Elevated supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail this morning as they move from eastern Missouri into parts of western Illinois. A thunderstorm cluster capable of producing mainly severe/damaging winds will also spread into parts of north-central/eastern Missouri later this morning. A tornado or two will also be possible with this cluster. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 115 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO to 40 miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

This will not be a complete forecast, but I just looked at the latest maps from the storm prediction center. The threat of tornadoes is rising in western Kentucky. There is a level 2 intensity with a 15% chance of a possible EF3+ tornado. The cities in this area are Fulton, Mayfield, Murray, Paducah, and Marion. This area is surrounded by a level 1 intensity with about a 5% chance of an EF2+ tornado. This area includes Owensboro, Madisonville, and Hopkinsville. The HRRR is showing lapse rates of 6.9-7.9 °C km⁻¹; this means that conditions will be favorable for hail. The storm prediction center says there is about a 40% chance of hail. Adding to that, a level 1 intensity hail could reach 2 inches in diameter. Any reading above 6.5 means the environment is favorable for hail.

Yes, I know. I spent a good deal of time in the winter studying this. There is still a lot more.

I just finished checking the bulk shear, which is the wind speed and direction difference between different levels of the atmosphere. It is approaching 49 kts. This means the area will be highly favorable for severe weather with supercells and potentially tornadoes. A section of Kentucky from around Owensboro to Louisville is showing 60-67 kts. This is why my concern is growing.

Here's some more info on what it could mean. I got this from the NWS website. Oh, I forgot to mention I'm using mixed layered cape, which is more accurate than an SB or surface-based cape. May 16, 2025: Extreme Instability Outbreak A highly volatile environment with extreme instability led to multiple violent tornadoes across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. Surface-Based CAPE (SBCAPE) peaked between 3,500 and 4,500 J/kg across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) exceeded 2,500 J/kg region-wide. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) was noted at a high 1,200–1,500 J/kg, contributing to significant straight-line wind threats. Tornado Ratings: EF4: Somerset–London, KY (170 mph winds). EF4: Marion, IL (190 mph winds). EF3: St. Louis, MO (152 mph winds). ________________________________________ April 2, 2025: Rare High-Risk Event A rare High Risk (Level 5/5) was issued due to perfect overlap of strong wind shear and significant instability. Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) exceeded 2,000 J/kg by 4:00 PM as Gulf moisture surged northward. In some frontal zones, values reached 2,500 to 3,500 J/kg. Tornado Ratings: EF3: Jeffersontown, KY (145 mph winds). EF3: Lake City, AR; Selmer, TN; and Potosi, MO. EF2: Multiple confirmed in Indiana and western Kentucky. ________________________________________ These CAPE values reflect the intensity of the severe weather, with the highest instability leading to the most violent tornadoes, particularly during outbreaks with extreme CAPE.

C.A.P.E., or convective available potential energy, means that there is sufficient energy in the atmosphere to fuel the formation of severe storms. In simple terms this means fuel for thunderstorms. The level of 1000 J/kg is usually considered the baseline for severe storms. The higher the level, the better the chance of stronger severe storms developing or a more volatile atmosphere.

Currently, there is a 15% chance of seeing tornadoes with an EF3+ rating and a level 2 intensity level in areas mostly north of I-64 in Illinois. This is within a 25-mile radius of a specific location. Within a 25-mile radius of a point in western Kentucky, there is a 5–14% chance of EF2+ tornadoes forming at a level 1 intensity. I'm not liking the latest model data from the euro concerning western Kentucky. It displays CAPE values greater than 2300 J/kg. I anticipate that the threat level for western Kentucky will rise if the trend continues. @theguru

Here is how the setup for western Kentucky is as of now for Monday evening. A negatively tilted trough will be positioned around Iowa. Downstream of the trough, upper jet winds are forecast to be out of the west at 62 mph, and the lower jet is out of the south at around 46 mph. The lower jet will also bring in Gulf moisture with dew points in the mid 60s. These ingredients, along with CAPE values of around 2200 J/kg, could be enough for the formation of supercell storms that could produce tornadoes. The optimal period appears to be between 5 and 8 pm EDT. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade in the threat level tomorrow. Those in the affect area should be going over their emergency action plan today. Also make sure you have more than one source to get severe weather notifications.

This now has the potential to become a multiday event. Here’s the latest information I just got from NWS-Louisville office.

The state’s weather forecast is calling for mid- and upper-level dynamics to bring a major storm system to Kentucky, especially Monday afternoon and evening. This is mainly due to a strong 500 mb jet with southwest winds greater than 70 kts that will promote upward motion near the triple point low and dry line. As the system approaches from Missouri and Illinois, Western Kentucky will be in the focus for strong storm development in the late afternoon. The environment will be supportive for some severe weather with strong low-level wind shear and instability. This environment could favor the development of isolated supercells capable of large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will push east across the state and may consolidate along an outflow boundary that will be pushing into the Lower Ohio Valley by evening. As the storm moves into a squall line, the threat of tornadoes, especially embedded tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will continue. Elsewhere, the threat for severe weather in Kentucky moves east through the period, with storms potentially remaining supercell in nature into the evening hours. With the front pushing south, the structure of the storm will change, and the threat of tornadoes will increase, including the possible development of meso-vortices and strong wind gusts. A mesovortex is a small, intense, rotating whirlwind that forms within larger convective weather systems such as hurricanes or squall lines. These features often develop along squall lines and can produce extreme localized winds, tornadoes, and sudden wind shifts. The exact amount of tornado potential will depend on how long discrete supercells can survive before merging into a larger complex and if outflow boundaries across Iowa and Illinois can help boost tornado potential. There is still some uncertainty on the tornado threat, but the threat could increase as more data becomes available. Be ready for quickly changing weather conditions and stay informed as conditions may change.

A high-impact severe weather event is predicted for Monday, April 27, 2026, over the Tennessee Valleys, lower Ohio, and middle Mississippi. models are showing some potential for significant surface cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. A strong shortwave and 50-70 kt 500 mb jet streak will drive this process, setting the stage for widespread severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. The target area is southeastern Iowa, central and southern Illinois and eastern Missouri, with activity moving into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late in the day. The main threat is tornadoes with potential for strong, long track and damaging tornadoes if discrete storm modes can persist. The first storms are likely to be individual supercells, but will probably grow upscale into clusters or lines later in the evening. These lines will continue to have embedded supercell structures that will be a significant tornadic threat. Large, clockwise-turned low-level hodographs (see picture below in white circle*) are a key ingredient for strong, tornadic supercells. Also, a modifying outflow boundary may provide a focus for enhanced differential surface heating. A dryline in eastern Missouri is expected to provide a focus for discrete development ahead of the advancing cold front, which will push the activity southeastward. It is important to keep an eye on your local National Weather Service office for the latest watches and warnings due to the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes. If you are in the impacted area, be sure to have multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts throughout the day. *