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Eastern Kentucky should have been rated as having a 30-45% chance.

Multiple rounds of storms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be possible in the Tuesday through early Thursday AM timeframe. Straight-line wind damage, hail, and tornadoes will be possible with severe thunderstorms. Confidence in the timing of these waves isn't particularly high, but the most impactful one will likely affect us Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. The CSU-MLP map indicates that Wednesday appears to be the greatest day for significant storm activity. There is a 45–60% risk of storms over most of Kentucky. Between Paducah and Louisville, there is a 60–70% chance of severe thunderstorms in this area of Kentucky. In Eastern Kentucky, the likelihood is 15–30%.

Due to convection that formed on Monday throughout the Plains, a line of thunderstorms is likely to continue Tuesday morning over portions of AR, MO, and IL. Nonetheless, this activity may tend to wane in the early hours. Nonetheless, it can still present a risk from sporadic strong or gusty winds. Greater instability is predicted across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley, with weak to moderate instability expected to develop ahead of and to the southwest of these early-day thunderstorms. It is predicted that organized convection, including some supercells, will be supported by deep-layer shear that is sufficiently powerful. With this knowledge, Kentucky is classified as a category 2 Slight Risk area by the Storm Prediction Center in its severe weather outlook for Tuesday. Their probability map has Kentucky in the 15–29% chance of severe storms. Next, I'm using the CSD-MLP maps, which are probabilistic forecasts of severe hazard occurrences initialized for Tuesday. The highest probabilities are for damaging winds and hail, both of which show a 15–30% chance of occurring. A large section of Kentucky has a .5–.10% chance of a tornado forming.

Around midweek, the elements are beginning to assemble for what might be a multi-day severe weather event. It is possible that Kentucky may experience severe weather beginning on Tuesday and continuing intermittently until Thursday night. I want to display the mid-level winds (about 18,000 feet) first. The winds at this altitude are represented by the purple hues. The wind speed increases with the depth of color. This will enable moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf to be drawn into our region. The uplift will be along this trough's leading edge, which will facilitate the development of storms. Particularly on Wednesday, the dew points can be in the low seventies. The potential energy in the atmosphere for storm formation is displayed on the Must Unstable Cape map. That is, if convection occurs in those areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% area in days 4 and 5 Convection Outlooks. This is equal to a level 2 Slight Risk condition. Tuesday Wednesday The Colorado State University Severe Probability Map is showing a 30% chance in the same area for day 4 from the Storm Prediction Center. This covers all of WKY and along the Ohio River area to the Cincinnati/NKY area. The day 5 map for Wednesday from CSU shows a 45% chance in the area the Storm Prediction Center shows a 15% chance. The Louisville This includes the same area as on Wednesday but is expanded eastward to include much of Kentucky except for EKY and SEKY. It is really almost impossible to show the precipitation map this early because we are still a little too far in the future. Check back for updates.

The most recent maps are available here. About a week remains till this potentially multi-day storm occurs. These are the predicted maps as of late. The Storm Prediction Center's maps of the likelihood of severe weather are placed next to them. Day 5 for Wednesday 5/8/24 Day 6 for Thursday 5/9/24 Day 7 5/10/24

We could see some severe weather in Kentucky starting around midweek. Right now, May 9th seems to be the best opportunity, as the bullseye is located in NKY. The Colorado State University MLP prediction page is where I got the forecast maps I am sharing. A week prior to the catastrophic weather outbreak of last week, this is what the page was displaying. You can see that it was largely accurate. This is what it is showing for possible severe weather in Kentucky next week starting on May 6th and continuing until the 8th. This is for Thursday, May 9th. Everyone can see the bullseye is centered in NKY. It is prediction a 30 to 45% chance for severe weather. This is pretty high this far in advance. I will be watching this possible situation and posting updates as we get closer.

At least one person was killed and several others were injured when a tornado tore through the community of Westmoreland in Kansas outside of Topeka on Tuesday, April 30, 2024

This is the area I'll be watching for tornadoes until around 11 pm EDT tonight.

This afternoon and tonight, a line of strong to severe storms with wind damage, sporadic large hail, and a few tornadoes is expected to affect the Ozarks, mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Today, a mid-level jet and upper-level trough will pass through the north-central United States. A cold front will be moving east-southeast into the Ozarks, causing a low to pass over Missouri at the surface. The wet sector will move in ahead of the front by late morning, covering a large portion of central and southern Missouri and spreading eastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Convection in western Missouri will gradually build during the early hours due to surface heating and enhanced wind fields, which will enable storms to form ahead of the front. Eventually, a line of dispersed storms will form and move eastward from the Ozarks into the mid-Mississippi Valley in the middle of the day. By midday, an airmass that is moderately unstable will be in position ahead of the front. At the early stages of the event, when cells are more likely to be discrete, this should be adequate for supercell growth. Supercells will increase the likelihood of large hail. As a practically continuous line of storms develops, wind damage will become probable. While low-level shear is not expected to be very strong, there is a chance of a few QLCS tornadoes, which often form at night, with rotating cells embedded in the line. The line that crosses the Mississippi River and passes through the lower Ohio Valley before spreading eastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley is expected to provide a serious hazard well into the evening. Improved wind fields and surface heating will enable storms to form ahead of the The Storm Prediction Center has western Kentucky under a level 3 Enhanced Risk for severe storms. An area east of that is under a level 2 Slight Risk Area. This extends to just east of I-65. A level 1 Marginal Risk covers the rest of Kentucky except for eastern Kentucky.

Due to the low, taking a more northerly track, the forecast for later this evening and overnight remains pretty much the same. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, however, the threat of any severe weather will remain low. For Wednesday, the main focus for severe storm potential has shifted north, primarily into Ohio. I still can't rule out isolated severe storms Wednesday afternoon in southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but confidence is low. Another round of strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday night ahead of a cold front. We'll have to watch this one as well.

The forecast for later this evening and overnight remains pretty much the same. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, however, the threat of any severe weather will remain low due to a stable layer near the surface. Some notable changes to the Wednesday forecast have lowered confidence in whether we will see strong to severe storms. 1.) The main focus for the best chance of severe weather has shifted northward to along and north of the Ohio River for Wednesday. 2.) A capping inversion may limit storms from firing at all on Wednesday, thus hurting confidence. It is very important to note that if the cap does not hold, then any storm that does develop could still turn strong to severe. So, we can't let our guard down just yet for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has kept KY in a Marginal risk, with southern IN still in the Slight Risk. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts. Another round of strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday night ahead of a cold front. We'll have to watch this one as well.

Most model forecasts indicate that convective initiation will happen in the early afternoon along the cold front that trails southwest from the low pressure system. A combination of both supercells and multicell clusters seems to have the potential to produce all serious threats. The area north and north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley is predicted to see the greatest convective concentration.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday morning before daybreak. There will not be much of a serious threat from those. There will be another round of storms in the late morning or early afternoon. It is more likely that these storms will be strong or severe. By late Wednesday night, storms are predicted to move east of the area. Severe storms have the potential to produce localized tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. It is also conceivable for locations that receive frequent rainfall to experience minor flooding.

A severe weather event may be in store for us, maybe beginning on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Western Kentucky is currently categorized as a level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk Area, with a 15% probability of strong to severe storms on Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. As we approach closer, there is a risk that this gets bumped up to level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk Area. The exact location, severity, and timing of the extreme weather are still somewhat unknown. The course of events will change during the following few days. Return for updates. As always, be prepared for everything. Remember, forewarned is forearmed!