nWo

This is the new, new to me, hourly mesoscale analysis model. It measures low-level (surface) and high-level vorticity (3 km about 2 miles up), twisting in the atmosphere. The red is 3 km up in the atmosphere. The blue represents the surface. Whenever they are one over another, the environment is favorable for supercells that could produce tornadoes. This is about 6 pm tonight. Not looking good.

Not knowing where you are here, my thinking is from 2 pm into the evening. The storms are already firing up in western Kentucky.

Break time until the main show later this afternoon. It's not looking good.

Storms just pasted through Richmond now the sun is coming out.

I use Radar Omega.

There's a national data outage that the NOAA has been experiencing. So some of the radars and items they send out are not working properly.

Good deal! it is going to be a busy day. The BGP Storm Team!! 😉

I was hoping it wouldn't clear so fast.

We've had brief breaks in the clouds and sunshine here in Richmond. I've been outside taking care of some chores and it is humid.

I just remember using a new tool (3cape) yesterday to predict possible tornadoes. This is almost the same area I drew yesterday.

The atmosphere will destabilize again this afternoon. The destabilization will be more intense this afternoon and more widespread.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Central and Northern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday morning from 655 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to move east across portions of the Ohio Valley this morning. A few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storm-scale circulations embedded within the line, in addition to the risk for scattered severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Louisville KY to 55 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeast across the Watch overnight into the early morning. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible, in addition to a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more intense cells or line segments. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Farmington MO to 40 miles northeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning. While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection. An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However, enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon

I'll be back on later this morning. I woke up at 1:30 this morning to go over the situation. I got some things to do this morning and then got a little rest. People may not know this, but covering these events can be quite draining.

ttt

What I observed in the most recent HRRR modeling data is as follows:. I am not fond of what I am witnessing. As far north as middle Ohio, dew points, or tornado juice, could reach the mid-to-upper 60s. This is causing a large, severe weather event, in addition to other upper and lower atmospheric circumstances. Breaks in the cloud cover before this afternoon are another serious issue. More atmospheric destabilization will be possible as a result of the breaks. Early in the afternoon is when the intense convection should start, and as the day goes on, it should get stronger. I sincerely hope I am mistaken, but I can not stress enough how much everyone reading this needs to get in touch with friends and family by this afternoon to make sure they are prepared.

Latest update: Overnight, there has been an increase in the serious threat for this afternoon. A level 3 Enhanced Risk Area covers nearly the whole state of Kentucky. A level 4 Moderate Risk Area now covers portions of the state from the I-64 corridor northward. A small area in western Kentucky is classified as a level 2 Slight Risk Area. A possibly substantial severe weather outbreak is anticipated for this afternoon and overnight, with the Ohio Valley having the highest probability. A few large/long-track tornadoes could be part of the outbreak. It seems like things are becoming dangerous here. Now is the time for everyone to start getting ready. Examine or start using your emergency action plan. Maintain many avenues of communication for potential alerts related to your region. I will be keeping a careful eye on this and posting updates as soon as the data allows me to.

The first round of tomorrow's storms should be in your area between 4 and 7 am.

I agree I do the same thing.

Correct. If that does indeed happen, they say it doesn't matter what level of threat we are under; it won't be good for anyone.

My plan at this time is to be up around 2 am to start BGP coverage of the early morning storms.

Cloud cover will be key. If the morning storms clear out fast enough to allow the sun to shine, It will not be a good afternoon tomorrow.

One thing mentioned during the conference call about Tuesday's event is the morning convection. If it ends early and the sun comes out and warms the atmosphere, that will not be good for anyone tomorrow afternoon. Ohio is really under the gun for tomorrow. Tornado watches are a practical guarantee for tomorrow.