nWo

It will be another hot and humid day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area. With plenty of moisture and afternoon heating, scattered thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but where thunderstorms develop, they could become locally strong. The biggest concerns will be strong, gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. With a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, some storms could drop an inch or more of rain in a short amount of time, leading to localized flooding. For Kentucky, storm chances will increase through the afternoon, with scattered storms possible across much of the state. The Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky area will also have a chance for storms, particularly later in the afternoon and evening. Overall, the severe weather threat is fairly low, but a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rain. The tornado threat looks very low. Bottom line: Hot, humid, and unsettled today, with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Most storms will be manageable, but a few could pack a punch with strong winds and very heavy rain.

The atmosphere will remain very warm, humid, and unstable across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area today as thunderstorms from the Midwest move east. Storm coverage should increase this afternoon and continue into the evening. The main concern will be strong to damaging straight-line winds, with gusts around 50-60 mph possible in the strongest storms. A brief tornado or small hail cannot be ruled out, but neither appears to be the main threat. For Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, storm chances will depend heavily on how the ongoing storm complex evolves as it moves through Illinois. If it holds together, storms could become more numerous later today. Areas farther south and east across Kentucky may see more scattered development. Overall, most storms will remain below severe limits, but a few could become strong to severe. The greatest concern is damaging winds, along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-131600- /O.CON.KPAH.XH.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260817T0100Z/ Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin- Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick- Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston- Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster- Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Elkton, Benton, Pinckneyville, McLeansboro, Poplar Bluff, Henderson, Greenville, Piedmont, Morganfield, Mayfield, Mound City, Carbondale, Fort Branch, Perryville, Mount Carmel, West Frankfort, Marion, Cape Girardeau, Doniphan, Petersburg, Fairfield, Bardwell, Eddyville, Mount Vernon, Rockport, Princeton, Harrisburg, Dixon, Paducah, Murray, Jonesboro, Smithland, Shawneetown, Cadiz, Elizabethtown, Hopkinsville, Calhoun, Murphysboro, Jackson, Van Buren, Albion, Hickman, Marble Hill, New Madrid, Owensboro, Bloomfield, Charleston, Madisonville, Evansville, Boonville, Vienna, Carmi, Herrin, Poseyville, Clinton, Cairo, Metropolis, Sikeston, Golconda, and Wickliffe 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 /346 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026/ ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 115. * WHERE...All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

This watch has expired.

Mesoscale Discussion 1958 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into the lower Ohio River Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577... Valid 122133Z - 122330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe wind and hail threat for the next hour or two, but should become increasingly sporadic through the evening hours. Downstream watch issuance will most likely not be required. DISCUSSION...The remnants of an MCS continue to push southward across the lower OH Valley, and although storm mode has become increasingly disorganized and outflow-dominant (likely a consequence of diminishing deep-layer wind shear with southward extent), lightning counts have increased over the past 20 minutes within a few cells from eastern MO into far southwest IN. This uptick in intensity comes as convection begins to push into a regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE was recently analyzed to be around 3500 J/kg. Consequently, the potential for large hail (most likely around one inch) and strong/severe downburst winds should linger for the next 1-2 hours as convection migrates through the best thermodynamic environment. However, regional reflectivity/velocity imagery shows that much of this activity is quickly becoming displaced behind a coherent convective outflow and/or has storm motions into the cold pool. Weaker deep-layer wind shear with southward extent should maintain the outflow-dominant nature of the convection and will eventually promote storm weakening and an increasingly isolated severe threat heading into the mid/late evening. Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged guidance captures this trend well and suggests the severe threat may not extend much beyond the southern bounds of WW 577. While convective trends will continue to be monitored as storms push through the buoyancy maximum, downstream watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Illinois Southern Indiana North central and central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into a cluster and spread southeastward from southern Indiana into Kentucky through this evening. Wind damage and occasional severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest storms. An isolated tornado or two may also occur where storms interact with a residual outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Louisville KY to 55 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

These from HRRR show a possible window from 4 pm to midnight before the storms just about clear Kentucky

A severe weather watch may be issued soon for the portion of Kentucky inside the blue line. Mesoscale Discussion 1953 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Areas affected...central and southern Indiana into central Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575... Valid 121752Z - 121945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat is expected to spread south across the discussion area this afternoon with the potential for significant gusts up to 75 mph. Some potential exists for a brief tornado or two. A new watch will likely be required over portions of far southern Indiana into central Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in volumetric radar data indicate deeper convective updrafts forming on the western flank of the MCS, near Terre Haute. That area coincides with where the MCS intersects a residual outflow boundary that extends south-southeast into south-central KY. Low-level convergence/ascent along that boundary in conjunction with the influx of a moderately to strongly unstable air mass from the west is expected to support further storm intensification this afternoon over portions of central and southern IN. Damaging winds with localized gusts up to 75 mph will be the primary hazard. Some brief tornado potential may materialize to the immediate east of the outflow boundary, where locally backed near-surface winds enhance low-level shear. The severe threat is expected to spread south of the current watch area in far southern IN into central KY, where a new watch will likely be required.

Update: Storms will be possible across Kentucky today, with a few becoming strong to severe later this afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms moving through the Midwest this morning will be the main feature to watch. Some of that activity could push into Indiana and Kentucky early in the day. If those storms leave behind a lot of cloud cover and cooler air, that could limit how unstable things become across the state. Still, it will be a very warm and humid day, and the atmosphere should become unstable enough for additional storms to develop or intensify later today. The biggest threat from any stronger storms will be damaging straight-line winds, with large hail also possible. A brief tornado can't be ruled out, but that does not appear to be the main concern at this time. For Kentucky, the late-afternoon through evening hours look to be the timeframe to watch most closely. Storm coverage and the exact location of the stronger storms will depend heavily on how the morning activity evolves.

Looks like another stormy day across Kentucky. Storms will likely be moving into the region from the northwest, with some activity possible this morning before things become more active later today. The atmosphere will be very warm, humid, and unstable, so any storms that can get organized could become strong. The biggest concern will be damaging straight-line winds, especially if storms form into a larger cluster or line. A few storms could also produce large hail, with an isolated tornado not completely out of the question. The tricky part today will be figuring out exactly where the storms track. Early storms could leave boundaries behind that influence where additional storms develop this afternoon. Overall, the afternoon into early evening looks like the timeframe to watch most closely. Western and central Kentucky could see storms first, with activity spreading southeast through the rest of the state. Not everyone will see severe weather, but there is enough instability and storm organization potential to make this a day worth watching.

Still on call. They just issued a tornado warning for a storm heading towards Cincinnati. @theguru

There is a possibility of another round of storms later tonight.

I'm on a conference call with the NWS-Louisville Office. Everyone in Cincinnati and northern Kentucky should be alert. Storms are heading your way at present—also, the Bluegrass counties.

The number in the heading is the number issued by the Storm Prediction Center. They issue one for each mesoscale discussion or watch. In the future, I will use it to differentiate each one. @theguru

For Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, storms should become more likely this afternoon and evening as the complex approaches from the northwest. The main concern will be strong to damaging straight-line winds, especially if the line can maintain its bowing structure as it moves into the region. Gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible, with stronger gusts not out of the question. The setup becomes less favorable for severe storms farther south across Kentucky. For much of Kentucky, expect a rather unsettled afternoon and evening with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of storms. With the ground already becoming saturated in places, localized flash flooding could develop. Overall, Cincinnati, Northern Kentucky, and northeastern Kentucky have the better chance of seeing stronger storms today, while the severe threat generally becomes more isolated farther south. The threat is not zero across central Kentucky, but damaging winds should be the primary concern rather than a widespread severe-weather event. Cincinnati is currently under a flood watch, with additional thunderstorms expected through tonight. Bottom line: Keep an eye on the storms coming out of Indiana and western Ohio. If that line holds together, Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky could see a quick round of strong winds and torrential rain later today.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northeast Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms over central Indiana/Ohio will track southeastward across the watch area this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions and strong winds aloft over much of the watch area will aid in the development of fast-moving storms capable of considerable wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Lexington KY to 115 miles east of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

For Cincinnati and northern Kentucky, the better chance for stronger storms appears to be this afternoon into the evening, depending on how quickly the Ohio storms move through and how much the atmosphere can recover. Across northeast and eastern Kentucky, additional development this afternoon could become strong to severe, especially where temperatures warm and instability increases. Bottom line: It’s going to be a day for sky watching. Morning storms don’t make for a slam-dunk setup, but there is enough instability and wind shear for severe storms to develop. Damaging winds are the main threat, but hail, heavy rain and an isolated tornado are possible. @theguru

This watch has been canceled.

The second round could be around rush hour.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northern into Northeast Kentucky West-Central into Southwest Ohio * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 840 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing segment and associated squall line will continue southeast through the morning into the Watch area. Scattered severe gusts (60 to 80 mph) are possible with the more intense surges within the squall line. A brief tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Dayton OH to 50 miles west southwest of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

It looks like we could have a pretty active day across Cincinnati and Kentucky, with thunderstorms moving into the region from the Midwest. . Some storms may already be underway this morning across Indiana and Ohio before pushing southeast toward Cincinnati and Kentucky. These early storms could bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and plenty of lightning. The bigger concern will be later today if a storm complex can organize and hold together as it moves into the Ohio Valley. It's going to be very warm, humid, and unstable, and strong winds higher up in the atmosphere will give storms plenty of support. If everything comes together, we could see a strong line of storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds. Gusts over 60 mph will be possible, with a few of the strongest storms potentially producing 75 mph or higher. For Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, storms could move in as early as late morning or early afternoon, with additional storms possible later in the day. Across Kentucky, storms could spread southeast through the afternoon, affecting areas around Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, Richmond and surrounding communities. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk area to cover this area. Western Kentucky could also see strong storms depending on how far south the storm complex develops. Damaging winds are the main concern today, but large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Heavy rainfall could also become an issue if storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Be ready if today turns out to be a stormy and potentially severe day across the Ohio Valley. The exact timing and location of the strongest storms are still uncertain, but if a well-organized line develops, damaging winds could become a serious concern from Cincinnati into Kentucky. Stay weather aware and keep an eye on the sky in your area today.

Email I just received from the NWS-Louisville office. Good Afternoon, Tuesday will bring multiple threats for Heat, Severe Weather, and Flooding to the area, although all have some lower confidence factors. The biggest threat for severe weather (mainly damaging winds) will be Tuesday evening, and if storms persist into Tuesday night, then the threat may evolve to Flash Flooding. In addition, temperatures in the low and mid 90s will combine with dew points well into the 70s to create peak Heat Index values around 105F, mainly west of I-65. This is a weather pattern where repeated complexes of storms could occur through much of the week, and we will have to take each wave one at a time, as each could be impacted by what occurred previously. In other words, each wave will be low confidence until the previous passes. Our NWS webpage is currently experiencing issues, so we can't currently give you a link to the briefing slides, however it is attached in PDF form. We will post it to the webpage once the issues are resolved. Let us know if you have any questions, NWS Louisville, KY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ILZ075>078-081>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-111200- /O.CON.KPAH.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260814T0100Z/ Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Franklin-Hamilton-White-Jackson- Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander- Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton- Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall- Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins- Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO- Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Mount Carmel, Elkton, New Madrid, Mayfield, Cape Girardeau, Hopkinsville, Cairo, Mound City, Paducah, Van Buren, Wickliffe, Owensboro, Jackson, McLeansboro, Fairfield, Doniphan, Morganfield, Murray, Clinton, Bardwell, Hickman, Vienna, Dixon, Cadiz, Perryville, Petersburg, Marble Hill, Metropolis, Piedmont, Smithland, Henderson, Madisonville, Marion, Charleston, Harrisburg, Poseyville, Greenville, Jonesboro, Princeton, Albion, Mount Vernon, Golconda, Herrin, Bloomfield, Murphysboro, Rockport, Evansville, Calhoun, Boonville, West Frankfort, Poplar Bluff, Fort Branch, Elizabethtown, Benton, Sikeston, Carbondale, Carmi, Shawneetown, and Eddyville 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 /115 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026/ ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY... * WHAT...Maximum daily heat index values up to near 110 degrees. * WHERE...All of southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois excepting Perry County IL, where a Warning is in effect. * WHEN...Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Daily heat index values will remain elevated near or above 100 degrees thru the remainder of the week.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Louisville KY 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 INZ083-089-KYZ023-026-061-070>073-110900- /O.NEW.KLMK.HT.Y.0006.260811T1600Z-260812T0100Z/ Dubois-Perry-Hancock-Ohio-Butler-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen- Including the cities of Bowling Green, Franklin, Hartford, Providence, Morgantown, Lewisport, Russellville, Scottsville, Hawesville, Tell City, and Jasper 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 /1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026/ ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 106 expected. * WHERE...In Indiana, Dubois and Perry Counties. In Kentucky, Hancock, Ohio, Allen, Butler, Logan, Simpson, and Warren Counties. * WHEN...From noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Just checked out the latest information from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday, 8/11/26. The severe threat has increased, especially for the Cincinnati area and portions of northern Kentucky. Because of this information, BGP will be in a Severe Weather Alert Day at least through tomorrow. Tuesday could bring several rounds of thunderstorms to Cincinnati and much of Kentucky, with storms possible from the morning through the evening. The first round may move in during the morning as a storm complex tracks east-southeast toward the Ohio Valley. Strong winds will be the main concern if this system holds together. Some storms could produce 60+ mph wind gusts, and a few spots could see a gust over 75 mph. There is also a tornado threat. The better chance for an isolated tornado appears to be across northern Kentucky, particularly from the Cincinnati area east toward Maysville and into northeastern Kentucky. Stronger rotating storms or storms that interact with boundaries left behind by the morning activity could produce a tornado. Additional storms could develop during the afternoon and evening, especially across northern and eastern Kentucky. Cincinnati and northern Kentucky could see another round of strong storms during this time. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the primary concerns, but large hail, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall are also possible. Areas that experience repeated storms could receive enough rain to cause localized flooding. For Cincinnati and Kentucky, Tuesday could be a busy severe weather day. The exact timing and location of the strongest storms will depend on how the morning activity develops. Still, residents should be prepared for the possibility of severe storms, particularly from northern Kentucky into northeastern Kentucky. @theguru