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nWo

BGP Meteorologist
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Everything posted by nWo

  1. https://www.wlky.com/article/tornado-owen-county-kentucky-july-21/73221495
  2. The watch area has been expanded. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-039- 045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-079-083- 085-087-091-093-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-123-125- 129-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-155-157-163-165-167-169-171- 173-175-177-179-181-183-185-189-197-199-203-205-207-209-211-213- 215-217-219-221-223-225-227-229-231-233-237-239-220200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0508.260721T1820Z-260722T0200Z/ KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS EDMONSON ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GARRARD GRAVES GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN HARRISON HART HENDERSON HENRY HICKMAN HOPKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON LARUE LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MARSHALL MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MEADE MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MUHLENBERG NELSON NICHOLAS OHIO OLDHAM OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD TRIGG TRIMBLE UNION WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER WOLFE WOODFORD
  3. The severe threat for today has increased.
  4. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Indiana Far Northern Kentucky Central and Southern Ohio Southwest Pennsylvania West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough and associated cold front moves through the region. Overall environmental conditions favor strong to severe thunderstorms, with a linear convective mode favoring damaging gusts as the primary risk. Low-level shear is also strong enough to support a low-probability risk for a few brief, line-embedded tornadoes as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles north northeast of White Sulphur Springs WV to 50 miles west northwest of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  5. Kentucky and the Cincinnati area are in for another round of stormy weather as a cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Storms are expected to begin developing during the late morning and afternoon across western Kentucky before spreading east through the rest of the state and into the Cincinnati area later in the day and evening. Warm, humid air and a few breaks of sunshine will help fuel the storms, while strong winds higher in the atmosphere will allow some of them to become severe. The biggest concern will be damaging wind gusts that could reach 60 to 70 mph, capable of bringing down trees, damaging power lines, and causing scattered power outages. Some of the stronger storms may also produce large hail. There is also a small chance that a few storms could briefly rotate and produce a tornado, especially if they develop ahead of the main line of storms. While the tornado risk is lower than the wind threat, it's something that shouldn't be ignored. The highest risk for severe weather will move from western Kentucky during the afternoon into central, eastern, and northern Kentucky, including the Cincinnati metro area, during the late afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor plans, keep a close eye on the weather throughout the day. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings, and be ready to head indoors quickly if severe weather approaches.
  6. Monday afternoon update: Tuesday looks like another active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area, with thunderstorms possible from morning into the evening. Some storms may already be moving through northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati area early Tuesday morning. Instead of fading away, these storms could strengthen again after sunrise as the air heats up and becomes more unstable. They will likely continue pushing south and east through the morning. As the day warms up, more thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. The main threat is damaging winds, with gusts of over 60 mph. Some could see knocking down trees and damaging power lines, which could lead to scattered power outages. During the afternoon and evening, a few storms could redevelop and become more organized. While the overall tornado risk remains low, an isolated tornado or pockets of large hail can't be ruled out, especially if individual storms are able to develop ahead of the main line. Another round of storms may arrive later in the day as the cold front moves through. If those storms merge into a larger line, they could bring another period of damaging winds before gradually weakening Tuesday night. The exact timing and strength of the storms will depend on what happens with the morning activity. If morning storms move out quickly and skies partially clear, the atmosphere will have a better chance to recharge, increasing the potential for stronger storms later in the day. The primary threat across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area will be damaging winds, followed by heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and a small risk of large hail or an isolated tornado. Keep an eye on the forecast throughout Tuesday and make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings, as conditions could change quickly if severe storms develop.
  7. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 838 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ILZ075-080>082-084>094-KYZ001>017-021-022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112- 114-210900- /O.NEW.KPAH.XH.W.0002.260721T1600Z-260722T0000Z/ /O.EXT.KPAH.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260721T1600Z/ Jefferson-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-Jackson-Williamson-Saline- Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Fulton- Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall- Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins- Christian-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO- Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Marion, Cairo, Jackson, Shawneetown, Metropolis, Murray, Morganfield, Harrisburg, Smithland, Carbondale, Cape Girardeau, Herrin, Mount Vernon, Pinckneyville, Elkton, New Madrid, Eddyville, Dixon, Jonesboro, Wickliffe, Mound City, Madisonville, Hickman, Poplar Bluff, Piedmont, Golconda, Murphysboro, Mayfield, Bardwell, Marble Hill, Perryville, Van Buren, Doniphan, Charleston, Clinton, Paducah, West Frankfort, Elizabethtown, Cadiz, McLeansboro, Hopkinsville, Greenville, Bloomfield, Princeton, Sikeston, Vienna, and Benton 838 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, heat index values of 100 to 106. For the Extreme Heat Warning, dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of 110 to 116. * WHERE...Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 11 AM CDT Tuesday. For the Extreme Heat Warning, from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
  8. nWo replied to nWo's topic in Weather
    The area for this advisory has just been expanded. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Louisville KY 926 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 INZ083-089-KYZ023-024-026-027-061>063-070>076-081-210900- /O.NEW.KLMK.HT.Y.0004.260721T1500Z-260722T0000Z/ Dubois-Perry-Hancock-Breckinridge-Ohio-Grayson-Butler-Edmonson-Hart- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Cumberland- Including the cities of Hawesville, Morgantown, Hardinsburg, Bowling Green, Tompkinsville, Brownsville, Glasgow, Horse Cave, Franklin, Tell City, Edmonton, Providence, Leitchfield, Lewisport, Jasper, Scottsville, Hartford, Russellville, and Burkesville 926 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 /826 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026/ ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values of 105 to 110 expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Indiana, west central, and south central Kentucky. * WHEN...From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
  9. The enhanced risk area (3/5) has been scaled back some this morning. Everyone should keep abreast of the possibility of severe weather on Tuesday. On the flip side, the slight risk area (2/5) has been expanded to cover almost all of Kentucky.
  10. Monday morning update. Tuesday is shaping up to be another active severe weather day for Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a strong storm system moves through the Ohio Valley. Warm, humid air will be in place ahead of an approaching cold front, creating the fuel needed for thunderstorms to rapidly strengthen during the afternoon and evening. At the same time, strong winds high in the atmosphere will help storms organize, increasing the potential for severe weather. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some storms capable of producing wind gusts over 65 mph. Large hail is also possible, and while the tornado threat appears lower than the wind threat, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out if individual storms remain isolated before joining into a larger line. There is still some uncertainty about exactly how the storms will develop and where the strongest storms will track. However, confidence is growing that much of Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Richmond, and northern Kentucky, along with the Cincinnati metro area, could see strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Storms could strengthen quickly, and conditions may change in a short amount of time. The greatest concern remains damaging winds, but all types of severe weather—including large hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado will be possible.
  11. Tuesday looks to be another active day for severe weather in Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a potent weather system moves through the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air will flow into the region on Tuesday with dew points in the 70s. A cold front will push into the area from the northwest, bringing thunderstorms for the afternoon and into the evening, with storms becoming more widespread overnight. The atmosphere will be quite unstable Tuesday with wind becoming increasingly gusty at higher levels. Thunderstorms will have the potential to quickly organize into large storm complexes with supercells forming and then merging with adjacent storms. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds capable of taking down trees and power lines across central and northern parts of the state as well as the Cincinnati area. Large hail will also be a concern with the strongest storms, especially later on in the afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes are also possible, especially with any isolated thunderstorms that don’t merge with other storms that might persist in the enhanced risk area. A few tornadoes are likely, though not everyone will see one. The corridor from western/central KY through northern KY, Cincinnati, southern Indiana, and into Ohio appears to be best poised for severe weather. The enhanced risk (3/5) area has expanded since this morning If you have any outdoor plans Tuesday afternoon or evening, be sure to remain weather aware and have multiple means of hearing about severe weather. Conditions could allow for thunderstorms to quickly erupt and produce damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning strikes, torrential rainfall amounts, and a few tornadoes.
  12. Information I just received from the NWS-Louisville office. Good morning, Confidence is increasing for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong low pressure kicks off a line of storms over the Ohio Valley. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible in this setup as the right ingredients of increased moisture and strong winds high up in the atmosphere will be in place by Tuesday. Now is the time to prepare for damaging winds bringing down trees and power lines. Additionally, know of a safe place to be should a tornado move through your area, being the innermost and lowest level room of your home. We will provide updates about this event as Tuesday draws closer. Let us know if you have any questions.
  13. The severe threat for Tuesday is increasing. A level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk area that includes Frankfort, Richmond, Lexington, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area has already been issued. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a level 2 out of 5 slight-risk area. A strong weather system will move into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area. The day will start warm and very humid, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. If enough sunshine develops during the afternoon, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable, allowing thunderstorms to rapidly strengthen. Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front during the afternoon and evening in central Indiana, moving southeast towards the Kentucky and Cincinnati areas later in the day and into the evening. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds capable of downing trees and power lines. Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if individual storms form before merging into larger lines. Heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief localized flooding are also possible with the strongest storms. Everyone across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area should stay weather-aware Tuesday afternoon and evening and be prepared to move indoors quickly if severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued. @theguru
  14. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ILZ075-080>082-084>094-KYZ001>017-021-022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112- 114-192200- /O.CON.KPAH.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260722T0000Z/ Jefferson-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-Jackson-Williamson-Saline- Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Fulton- Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall- Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins- Christian-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO- Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Murray, Cairo, Marble Hill, McLeansboro, Perryville, Jackson, Bardwell, Princeton, Marion, Smithland, Piedmont, Mayfield, Van Buren, Sikeston, Cadiz, Jonesboro, Madisonville, Morganfield, Elkton, Bloomfield, Hickman, Murphysboro, Charleston, Harrisburg, Dixon, Metropolis, Mount Vernon, Doniphan, Greenville, Pinckneyville, Mound City, Paducah, Carbondale, Shawneetown, Poplar Bluff, Hopkinsville, Wickliffe, Eddyville, Elizabethtown, Clinton, Cape Girardeau, West Frankfort, Vienna, Benton, New Madrid, Golconda, and Herrin 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values between 100 to 105 expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Higher humidity levels combined with hot temperatures on Tuesday may cause heat index values to near 110 degrees. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
  15. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible in the Kentucky and Cincinnati regions from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night Among the factors of a slow-moving cold front are warm and moist air. This will lead to the potential of several thunderstorms during the day. Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, the remaining potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms exists. Thunderstorms will move into the Cincinnati area from Kentucky and will pose a threat of severe thunderstorm winds. Isolated large hail and tornadoes remain possible as well, especially among any storms that form ahead of the line of thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday through Tuesday night, with the continued possibility of several thunderstorms on Wednesday. Most of Kentucky and Cincinnati will see the greatest likelihood of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. While the forecast may still change, the greatest concern will remain during those hours.
  16. Kentucky and the Cincinnati area are in for another round of stormy weather today as a strong system moves through the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front across the region. Warm, humid (dew points low to mid 70s) air will fuel thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and some of those storms could become strong to severe. Storms are expected to develop across southern Indiana and Ohio before spreading south/southeast into Kentucky. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some gusts topping 60 mph. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and localized flooding are also possible. While the tornado threat remains low, an isolated tornado or a few hail-producing storms can't be completely ruled out. Around the Cincinnati metro, the greatest chance for storms will be from late afternoon through the evening. A few storms could bring damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall before moving out overnight. Once the cold front moves through, conditions will gradually improve from north to south. Sunday will feel much more comfortable, with lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures. If you have outdoor plans today or this evening, keep an eye on the forecast and be ready to move indoors if storms develop quickly.
  17. Forgot this simulated 6 hr lightning flash density map.
  18. For Tuesday, Kentucky and the Cincinnati area will be under an increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves east-southeast through the Ohio Valley. Warm, humid air ahead of the front will create an unstable atmosphere, allowing thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening. The greatest threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some wind gusts capable of exceeding 60 mph. Large hail will also be possible in the strongest storms, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if any storms become more organized. Storms are expected to develop across Kentucky and move east-southeast through the state, reaching northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro area by early afternoon before continuing east-southeast through the evening. While severe weather is possible statewide, central, eastern, and south-central Kentucky, along with northern Kentucky and Cincinnati, could see the strongest storms as the cold front pushes through. Residents should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening. Outdoor plans may be impacted by heavy rain, frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and localized power outages where the strongest storms develop. This forecast will be find tuned as we get closer to Tuesday.
  19. A cold front will move toward Kentucky and the Cincinnati area on Saturday, bringing an increasing chance for strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Warm, humid air ahead of the front will provide plenty of energy for storms to strengthen. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible, especially if storms remain more isolated before forming into a line. Storms may begin developing across western Kentucky during the afternoon before spreading east across central and eastern Kentucky, including the Cincinnati metro area, through the evening and overnight. The greatest concern will be damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, along with torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and the potential for isolated large hail. While the tornado threat appears limited, it is not zero, particularly with any storms that can remain discrete ahead of the main line. The greatest potential for damaging straight-line winds appears to be across south-central Kentucky, central Kentucky, northern Kentucky, eastern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati metro area. Stay weather-aware throughout Saturday, as severe thunderstorm or tornado watches and warnings may be issued. Conditions are expected to improve from west to east Saturday night after the cold front moves through.
  20. A cold front will move through Kentucky on Saturday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could become strong to severe across much of Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Richmond, Ashland, Morehead, Northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if storms become more organized. The exact severity will depend on how much sunshine develops during the day and whether morning showers limit instability. If the atmosphere has time to recover, storms could intensify quickly by late afternoon. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, keep an eye on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Warm and humid conditions will continue ahead of the front before cooler, less humid air moves into Kentucky and the Cincinnati area Saturday night into Sunday.
  21. Saturday will be hot, humid, and unsettled across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a cold front moves in from the northwest. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and become more widespread through the evening. The highest chance for strong to severe storms will be across northern Kentucky, the Bluegrass region, and the Cincinnati area, but storms could develop anywhere in the state. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. Some storms may also produce large hail, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and localized flooding. Storms will continue into Saturday night before gradually weakening overnight. If you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon or evening, keep an eye on the forecast and be ready to move indoors if severe weather develops. Not everyone will see severe storms, but any storm that forms could become strong quickly.

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