This will not be a complete forecast, but I just looked at the latest maps from the storm prediction center. The threat of tornadoes is rising in western Kentucky. There is a level 2 intensity with a 15% chance of a possible EF3+ tornado. The cities in this area are Fulton, Mayfield, Murray, Paducah, and Marion. This area is surrounded by a level 1 intensity with about a 5% chance of an EF2+ tornado. This area includes Owensboro, Madisonville, and Hopkinsville. 

The HRRR is showing lapse rates of 6.9-7.9 °C km⁻¹; this means that conditions will be favorable for hail. The storm prediction center says there is about a 40% chance of hail. Adding to that, a level 1 intensity hail could reach 2 inches in diameter. Any reading above 6.5 means the environment is favorable for hail. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An active severe weather day is expected across Kentucky, particularly in the afternoon and evening. The state will experience conditions conducive to strong thunderstorms, including supercells and tornadoes, especially in the western and central regions.
Morning (until midday):
Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to impact Kentucky, but the severe threat is expected to be lower in the morning. Elevated supercells with mainly a hail threat will persist, primarily affecting the mid-Mississippi Valley to the west. However, strong low-level warm advection will help fuel continued storm development as moisture and instability increase.
Afternoon (12 PM to 5 PM):
As the day progresses, conditions will become more favorable for intense supercell thunderstorms across central and western Kentucky. The atmosphere will become moderately to strongly unstable, aided by daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates. A 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will provide ample shear for supercells, which are likely to develop along the surface cold front by early afternoon.
The primary severe threat during this time will be damaging winds, large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter), and the risk of tornadoes—particularly from central to western Kentucky. A few strong tornadoes (EF-2/EF-3) are possible, especially in areas closer to the line of thunderstorms along the cold front.
Evening (5 PM to 10 PM):
Severe thunderstorms will likely consolidate into clusters, increasing the potential for widespread damaging winds across Kentucky, especially in the central and eastern regions. The tornado threat will remain present, particularly in line with the squall line (QLCS) and embedded supercells, with strong low-level shear continuing into the night. The risk of tornadoes will persist into the early overnight hours.
Late Night (After 10 PM):
The severe threat should begin to weaken as instability decreases, but a damaging wind threat may still continue for parts of eastern Kentucky as the convection moves eastward.
Overall, Kentucky should be on the lookout for an intensely severe weather day, with a significant risk for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds, particularly in the afternoon and evening.

Make sure to stay weather-aware and have a plan for shelter if necessary.

 

The storm prediction center has expanded the level 3 enhanced risk area to cover all of western Kentucky. The level 2 slight risk area now extends to the Cincinnati/NKY and Lexington areas. It also includes the Bowling Green area to around Campbellsville. The level 1 marginal risk covers most of the rest of Kentucky.

The one change I expected is the intensity level for western Kentucky has been raised for most of western Kentucky west of the Land Between the Lakes area. The intensity level is now a level 2 for that area. This means max expected tornadoes of EF3+. I wouldn't be surprised to see the intensity level expanded to include more of western Kentucky.

 

 

 

@theguru

As I expected, the level 4 out of 5 moderate risk area has been expanded into western Kentucky. It now extends west of a line from around Paducah down to around Fulton City. This includes Mayfield. 

Today’s looking like a rough day for severe weather, especially in the afternoon and evening, with Western Kentucky in the firing line. Right now, storms are moving through Illinois and Indiana, packing severe hail and strong winds, and that activity could spread eastward, affecting Kentucky, including areas in the west.

As we get into the afternoon, the atmosphere is going to keep destabilizing, making conditions more favorable for bigger storms. Moisture will be surging into the area, and a surface low will start to strengthen across the upper Midwest, setting the stage for what’s coming.

By mid-afternoon, things will really ramp up. Strong winds at higher altitudes, combined with low-level shear, will create ideal conditions for supercells to pop up across the region, particularly near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. That’s where we’re likely to see the most intense activity.

The big concern is tornadoes, strong ones, possibly even EF2 or EF3 strength, especially as the storms move into Kentucky. The tornado risk will be high through the evening, and it’s not just the tornado threat; damaging winds and large hail will also be a concern, so stay alert.

As evening sets in, storms will probably start to cluster into bigger lines, bringing an increased risk of damaging winds, large hail, and possibly even more tornadoes. This threat won’t ease up until late tonight, so keep an eye on updates and have a plan in place to stay safe.

The key hazards for Western Kentucky are tornadoes, winds gusting up to 60+ mph, and hail that could reach 2 inches in diameter.

Make sure to stay weather-aware and keep checking for updates throughout the day, especially if you’re in an area that could be impacted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@theguru

The moderate risk remains unchanged in this update. The morning complex of storms (MCS) is currently moving through eastern Illinois and southern Indiana. Further west, in Missouri and western Illinois, residual outflow from the storms is hanging around near the St. Louis metro. Meanwhile, cumulus clouds are developing south of this boundary across southeastern Missouri and into southern Illinois, and cumulus growth within the warm sector is starting to pick up as well. The increasing MLCAPE and steepening lapse rates are advancing northward into southern Missouri and south-central Illinois.

Radar is showing occasional attempts at storm initiation just to the west of the Mississippi River within the warm sector. While the details are still developing, it’s likely that a corridor of heightened tornado risk will form from the Missouri Bootheel to southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Strong daytime heating has already contributed to a volatile atmosphere, with MLCAPE (mixed layer CAPE) values between 2000 and 3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear in place. The conditions from Paducah, KY, and St. Louis, MO, indicate a favorable environment for rotation, with storm-relative helicity (potential for updraft to rotate) values around 200-300 m²/s² in the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere. Supercells capable of producing all forms of severe weather, strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to develop soon. For more detailed info, refer to MCD571.

As the storm system progresses, the mode will likely transition to a linear storm structure, with the southward-moving front bringing an increased risk of damaging winds into the evening. Embedded tornadoes, some potentially strong, will continue to be a threat throughout the night.

Storms are starting to fire up in southeast Missouri. 

I was sitting outside while it was still a little light out and the lightning lit the sky up shades of pink/red/orange.  And look at this capture from Freeman Kelly Dronography over Scott County: