ATLCat

Can they? Yes Are they the favorites? Probably not. I don’t think Belfry would have been within three TDs of the best of Class 2A last year because their defense was simply questionable. Throw into that the question of how Belfry deals with the tough situation of the surprising loss of a legend. With that said, no one brings back nearly as much as Belfry and if this team is a year bigger and stronger and the defense can show marked improvement, look out.

Stonebreaker will make strides if given time and devotion. His track record suggests it will take a year or two before he gets going to full speed. The schedule is favorable and a good schedule to get forward momentum. I'll say 6-4 or 7-3.. think they can compete against everyone except LCA. Anderson County, Lincoln County, and Washington County will be challenges.. Fairdale and Southern are bigger schools but I think Danville can hang. IMHO, if Danville can get to 7-3 you couldn't ask for a better first step!

Think this year will be a bridge year for Pikeville and then the Panthers see big strides next season and are right back as a potential Title Favorite by 2027. If you are a 1A team this is the year to try and take aim. Pikeville will be tough next year and absolutely loaded by next post season moving forward. Pikeville may very well start 0-5 with that schedule. Cabell Midland struggled a little last year but that is still a big 6A school equivalent and Pikeville will be having to do some significant work to get the wrinkles out with so many new faces. Southwestern will also be a toss-up and it wouldn't surprise me if both Raceland and Hazard enter the year as slight favorites. I will say 4-6 as a prediction for 2024.. but once again... don't get comfortable expecting Pikeville to stay like that. Worst Case is 3-7, I could see 5-5 but don't think it is likely and 6-4 would be a dream scenario where Pikeville gets an upset and gets some breaks their way. One thing I am very curious to see is how Pikeville addresses their Special Teams play. Usually Mac gets positive gains in Special Teams most seasons but last year to say Pikeville was bad in that department would be an understatement.

I haven't been able to stay plugged in to Belfry over the past few years like before, but here's the general outlook from what I gather: POSITIVES - Loads of experience. Belfry returns a lot of starters and most of those guys are multi-year starters. Traditionally speaking when Belfry has a veteran O-Line they are title threat. Belfry has that veteran O-Line this year. Bo Wolford will be in the All-State discussion, he is an excellent OLineman. - Chase Varney returns and has had a very good career at QB. He will be entering his 4th year as the Starter and is coming off a season where he threw for nearly 1500 yards. The other good indicator of Belfry success is when they keep their backfield relatively in-tact returning into a new season. Belfry returns the entire backfield (FB Austin, HB Woolum, HB Caudill) which accounted for over 3000 rushing yards to pair with that veteran O-Line and Chase Varney's passing ability. All told, Belfry gained 5043 total yards last year on Offense and 73 TD's. In terms of production graduating, Belfry loses all of 53 yards and 0 TD's. - On Defense the big name returning is Hunter Hylton. If you have never seen him play you are missing one of the funnest players in the State of Kentucky to watch. He is undersized at the DT position but he is a force of nature. Despite suffering an injury that cost him 4 games last year and he was not able to return in the playoffs truly at 100%, he was still Belfry's leader in tackles, TFL's, and sacks. You won't find a player with a higher motor or giving more individual effort. Cayden Varney also returns on defense in the secondary and will probably lead Belfry in INT's again. - Belfry's defense, much like their offense is loaded with experience returning. Essentially Belfry returns 10 of 11 starters with DB Alex Long being the only hole to fill. For snots and giggles, Belfry also returns their key specialists. Nick Savage was a very dependable kicker and Chase Varney handles the punting. Belfry got some good production in the return game as well and all those guys are back. - The drop to 2A should be fruitful in terms of District and Regional play. Belfry will be a prohibitive favorite as their biggest competitor in the Region should be Breathitt County. Belfry defeated Breathitt 56-26 last year. NEGATIVES - The elephant in the room is the tragic passing of arguably the GOAT to ever do it, Philip Haywood. Matt Varney takes the reigns but noone could foresee a 2025 season without Haywood on the sideline. Varney inherits as good of a first year situation as one could hope for with the experience and production Belfry returns, but with it comes a few levels of pressure. Obviously the pressure of replacing a true legend is huge, but Varney also has the pressure of a level of expectations with this team. This group had won Middle School State Titles but despite a Semi-Finals push last year really hasn't been thought of as a true Title Contender. The loss to Union County was a very sour note as Belfry simply was not competitive. Adding to all of this, the Pirates may have some lean years coming as this is a very Senior laden roster and outside of a potential future superstar in Woolum, they will see a noticeable dip in the talent pool. - It's hard not be excited over a defense returning essentially everything including All-State potential in Hylton and DB Cayden Varney, but Belfry's defense definitely doesn't enter without it's share of disappointment. In Belfry's three losses the defense allowed over 40 points each time and allowed an average of 45 points. Even in victory, Belfry's defense still struggled to display the ability to get consistent stops or take over the game against teams with the ability to spread the field and mix in the run. This has been a theme with Belfry over the past three seasons and probably the single biggest question keeping them from being labeled a legitimate threat to be on the same level as a team like Beechwood. As good as Hylton has been, Belfry has lacked the ability to consistently create penetration or pass rush outside of him and the LB'ers have struggled consistently tackling or getting the right angles for players getting to the second level. Belfry's secondary had numerous coverage busts and also really struggled tackling in space. - One of the biggest issues Belfry has had to overcome is their schedule was probably stronger than their roster the past few years. With the RPI format Belfry was handicapped because of close losses to good teams and this caused Belfry to consistently take their show on the road in the playoffs. No example being better than a 7+ hour trip to Union County last year. Belfry's schedule is still stout, although it should line up better to their talent and expectation in 2025. It is still risky as the schedule could set Belfry up to have one of the very best RPI's if they can manage to win out, but in the same breathe Belfry could easily be in the same spots as a deeper seed. Mayfield, Beechwood, and LCA are all looming outside of Belfry region, as are Somerset and Murray. Almost all of those teams are certain to put up a big RPI number so Belfry has got to match them. FINAL ANALYSIS Matt Varney finds himself in a situation most coaches wish they never are in... but also finds himself in the unique position most coaches would die for. It cannot be understated that I am not sure I have ever seen a Belfry team who had the success the prior year that this team had which still returns this much talent and production. When blueblood programs in the State of KY return 8 or 9 starters each way they are thought to be loaded, Belfry takes that a level further. I am not sure I have ever seen a team return 5000 yards of production and essentially every offensive point scored before. The scary thing is Belfry's offense has room to grow. JJ Austin grew leaps and bounds throughout the season at FB and was emerging as a superstar in the post season. JB Woolum has star potential after a successful Sophomore campaign and with a year of physical growth and a year in the weight room is well on the way to being the gamechanger his brother was a few years ago as both a dangerous weapon running and catching. Cayden Varney was returning from a devastating injury and when you add him as Senior next to the expected development of Woolum and fellow classmate Eli Caudill, you now add three viable receiving threats for Varney to throw to in addition to the vaunted Belfry rushing attack. It is going to be hard to hold Belfry under 35 points on any given night If Belfry's defense can rise to the challenge this team has the ability to be special. Union County was the only game Belfry was not in position to win in the final minutes of the 4th Quarter. The Pirates had a second straight year collapsing to GRC despite a 3 TD lead and Belfry had Johnson Central dead to rights after a comeback until JC hit a big play with around a minute left in the passing game. Even that Union County game was a bit misleading as Belfry self destructed with turnovers and penalties behind the pressure of essentially seeing that they could not stop Jarren Johnson and the Braves' offense. To a lesser note, Belfry will also need to show major improvement in Special teams consistency. Savage was a dependable kicker on Field Goals and XP's and the Pirates found some big plays in the return game including a notable return to change the game against Pikeville. With that said, part of Belfry's struggles was the inability to win the field position game in kickoffs and punting situations. Belfry consistently threw away probably 50-70+ yards of field position a game with their struggles in the kicking game. I would estimate the average starting field position for the opponent in Belfry's three losses was past the 45 yard line. Belfry also had their fair share of fumbles, muffs, and costly penalties negating returns. When Belfry played well in Special Teams it showed the difference. Belfry doesn't beat Pikeville or Rockcastle County without the decisive victory in Special Teams they enjoyed. It's common logic, when you have an offense this good the shorter the field the better chance of success and the less likely chance of a key penalty disrupting your momentum. When your defense does a decent job of limiting long TD's, but struggles to consistently get stops, then making the opposition go further is a big advantage. If Belfry can secure a top RPI seed and stay healthy this is going to be a team no one in 2A will feel good about going on the road to play. For the first time since probably 2019 I feel that Belfry enters the season as a legitimate Title threat. Even in 2021 that was a flawed team who caught lightning in a bottle and rode Isaac Dixon's historic season to a title. Belfry has all the pieces you would want to be a dangerous small school football team in 2025. TLDR, Belfry has a chance to be really good and returns more than probably any team in KY.

I agree. Especially after living in Georgia now where even the smallest counties all seem to have football, it still surprises me that Kentucky has so many counties and even larger towns that don't have programs at all. Georgia is littered with small independent schools in small towns or small Private Schools in these same rural towns. A good example is where we live in somewhat rural Central Georgia (Baldwin County). Our county has one large public school that is a 4A school in GA and would be a 5A-6A school in KY. It also has two K-12 private schools. Our kids go to Georgia Millitary College Prep which is a K-12 school that also has a Junior College on campus. The other school is John Milledge Academy which would be a small 1A school in KY. To give an idea, GMC's latest graduating class was 75 students and JMA had a graduating class of 34. There are numerous small rural counties that surround us that have a 2A sized Public School and also have a small private school. Macon, GA is foreign to what we see in KY. The population of Macon is around 150K, roughly half the size of Lexington and essentially double the size of Bowling Green. Macon has six different public schools with almost all of them serving as Magnet programs, with only one of them being the equivalent of a 5A school in KY. Most of their public schools would only be 2A-4A size in KY. The kicker is Macon has seven different private high schools as well. Almost all of those private schools would be very small 1A schools in KY with only First Presbyterian Day and Stratford potentially being 2A or 3A size.

A couple to consider from EKY, not sure if they ever had multiple school that consolidated but as it stands today they have other active High Schools but no football: Breathitt County: Jackson City has never had football to my knowledge Clay County: Red Bird Mission is just inside the Clay County line. Knott Central: Cordia is within Knott County but does not offer football nor ever has to my knowledge Breathitt County has always sat in a particularly unique location geographically. It is bordered by three different counties that do not play football. Lee, Owsley, and Wolfe. These are three small counties, but when combined they have a population of over 17K. By comparison this would put those three in the range of a Henry County, Mason County, or McCreary County. Remember Breathitt only has a population of 12K itself. In other words there is an entire 3A population base that does not offer football on their Western and Northern border. I don't think you can point and say this has been an unfair advantage or even a particularly significant advantage over the years, but it is probably safe to assume that Breathitt has been a beneficiary of getting a handful of contributors over the years simply from being the closest strong program playing football to choose.

They would remain 6A but they would now be facing competition from schools like CovCath, Bowling Green, and maybe even Boyle County who see their respective Class change due to the multiplier from transfers or out of district kids. The truth remains the biggest issue in KY is six classes are too many. Five classes to me is the sweet spot for the state. Should be Class A- AAAA with a separate class for small privates. Another thing Georgia does is the small private schools play a regional schedule against public schools but they separate them in the post season. I think that would work in KY but this is a far stretch because then you have to reformat your playoffs as well.

I am still of the belief that the best way to handle all this is to just do what Georgia does. They give freedom to legitimately transfer or keep your residence and play for Independent/Charter/Private schools, but those schools have to keep everything very strictly above board and have to pay a consequence if too many kids utilize this rule. They enforce Heavy penalties if you are caught doing something illegal. But moreso, they put a multiplier on your enrollment for kids living out of "district" or transferring in. This means for kids paying tuition out of district for a public school, kids who live outside of city limits for a city/independent, and essentially all private school kids you apply the multiplier to level the playing field. It's called the "Buford Rule" because Buford High School was so dominant and everyone wanted their kid to go there because as a public school it was next level in all things (facilities, athletics, academics, etc). Buford basically went from a 1A/2A school to a 6A school now in the span of a ten year window. Buford is still a very good program who has played for multiple titles in multiple sports, but the days of total domination are over as they face greater parity. They also created a catch all private school class for the smaller privates and the bigger privates have to play up with the multiplier. What you have also seen as fallout is your smaller City/Independent districts usually aren't effected (think of a Murray or Russellville in KY terms), but other Independent Schools with a higher surrounding population base went from dominating small schools to having to compete against 4A or 5A teams.

I really like what Russell is bringing to the table. They showed massive improvement over the course of last season and now return a veteran team who seem to understand their identity. I expect Benge to take a major step forward and to become a 1000 yard rusher to go along with a quality passing game. Defensively they won't wow you but they play good sound fundamental football.

Just throwing a wildcard out there, but I would reach out to Lakeway Christian Academy in Morristown, TN if I were Bell. No clue where they currently stand schedule wise, but they just hired Greg Vandagriff to be their Head Coach who is coming from Prince Avenue Christian (GA). They backed the truck up to hire Vandagriff with the goal of turning them into a Championship team as soon as possible. He will have them winning State Titles in the next five years, but as the old saying goes you have to mash some grapes before you can make wine and I could see several TN schools quickly getting upset pretty quick when he starts smashing grapes. He turned Prince Avenue into one of the best small school teams in America the pastfive years winning three titles and two runner-ups in Georgia in the process and producing multiple major D-1 guys. Vandagriff subscribes to scheduling up as his last few teams at Prince were travelling all over the place to play bigger teams. Morristown is a short hike from Bell. Might be a good fit if they have an opening.

Don't think a new coach is ideal regardless, but if the situation had to play out I think 2A is probably ideal. This is Belfry's bumper crop of talent they have been building toward for a few years but the Belfry dip in talent will most likely rival what they saw a few years ago. I think Class 2A may be tougher to win a title (although CAL is turning into a monster) than 3A, but after this season I am struggling to see Belfry in the title contention picture for at least the next three seasons. The district and region will be much more manageable trading Breathitt for Bell. With that said, it is very important Belfry gets some good momentum with this Senior Class before they depart.

Very intrigued to see responses. I remember Belfry had a RB named Dwight Stepp, I believe, who fit this category in the 90's. He was tremendously talented but had to miss time practicing to work and ultimately could not play his Senior season so he could focus on it. I think there are a bunch of social aspects you can look at here and variations of this question. I do think that these days it is a bit more efficient to work around some of these issues as it was 20+ years ago, but as long as people have financial needs there will be a call that tough decisions will be made that will be limited by the options presented.

Go get 'em Coach Varney! Belfry's program has been built on the back of Coaches leaving it better than they found it. From Coach Vipperman to Coach Roddy to Coach Haywood, these coaches took what was given to them and built it better. Roddy took a foundation and made it something strong, Haywood took that shell and made it a palace... now the pressure is for Coach Varney to continue that trend. He inherits a roster most coaches in the state would love to have. A ton of experience, a ton of production, a veteran QB, and experience at the Line of Scrimmage. Coach Varney and the staff cannot rest on the laurels and think just because the jersey says Belfry that teams will move over. Once this Senior Class graduates there is going to be a lot of heavy lifting so it is important to build momentum this year. I sure know I will be pulling for him!

Jarren Johnson was a generational talent for that program and was such a vital part of all three phases of their team that there will not be a path where he leaves a crater to fill. With that said, I was very impressed with their coaching and they have built Union into a very consistent program. I am not sure you will see them making a push to the Finals a year removed from losing Johnson, but I still think Union wins plenty of games and contends for a few rounds in the playoffs.

They one upped Cawood Ledford... "From Paducah to Pikeville" Nah bro.. we goin' a little further west and a little further east than that.

2021 Belfry started the year 0-5 as well. They went 0-6 in their non-district slate. They played Tilghman in the finals, Tilghman was also a team who finished the regular season with a losing record.

It is worth noting as well that the only way they can technically draw kids out of district is those kids have to be taking part in the specific magnet program offered. Central has always had a disproportionate female:male ratio because their most prominent magnet programs were more medical and teaching focused.

Of those 7 listed non-district games I only would put Belfry as a toss-up game just looking at where teams were at the end of the season.. I would say Central will most likely start as a marked underdog against everyone else. With that said as well, Central has historically struggled making the long trek to Eastern KY and that Pike County Bowl is probably going to be pretty emotional for Belfry as that will be the first home game for a veteran team that returns 9-10 starters each way since Haywood's death.

At first glance, I am already questioning it. Central not only loses Cortez Stone but also have some very key players who just graduated. Central's roster on KHSAA only had 38 players Soph-Senior. 16 of those were Seniors. Looking at their offensive production.. Walker returns and that's a good thing. He was their primary QB. The bad news is he was 2nd on the team in passing (267 yards), he is now their leading returning rusher (248 yards), and even scarier he is their leading returning receiver as well (78 yards). Outside of Walker the next leading returning rusher had 55 yards, the leading receiver had 26 yards, and the other QB to pass for yard that returns threw for 26 yards. Of those 16 Seniors it appears 10 of them played key roles with more than a handful playing both sides of the ball. They do have two of their better defenders back in Basemore and Benning, but they lose three of their top 5 leading tacklers, they lose the guys who produced 13 of their 15 total INT's and all the guys who accounted for their fumble recoveries are also gone. Maybe they are confident in their replacements?

^^^^ Long story short... you can see the evolution of Pikeville. They started with a lower talent pool that they had to maximize to be a 1A Champ. They had to rebuild that all over but the next time led to a crescendo that could have competed with anyone, let alone 1A/2A. The next wave was built on a deeper talent pool and it was an even stronger wave that was able to be sustained longer. I think this alludes that the truth is in between. Pikeville has clearly proven that when they peak out they have been good enough to go with any team and be championship worthy essentially Class 1A-4A. At the same time, the majority of years I think the other poster may be accurate that Pikeville was an elite 1A Team who would have been a very good but maybe not Championship worthy team in other classes. Reading the tea leaves I think Pikeville is not about to see that deep of talent pool as what we saw a few years prior to 2024. With that said, it is much deeper than it was in 2013, and if the pattern repeats itself I think Pikeville will be very, very good in a couple years again.

I think the truth lies in the middle. The beauty of Pikeville is they have no shied away from competition from bigger classes. That gives a good gauge of where they would stand. When you are a smaller school it is all about talent pool. Typically those talent pools ebb and flow... some years are deeper..some years are more shallow. For Pikeville I think they are in the midst of a little bit of a talent pool regression starting with the 2024 season after a historically high mark. 2024- Pikeville was a very good Class A team that probably would not have won the title in any other class. 2023- We saw a slight downward trajectory but they were a Class A Champ (although Raceland beat them in the regular season) where the Class started catching up to them. Pikeville beat some good bigger schools but also got beat easily by LCA. I would say Pikeville would have been a top 5 team in 2A and 3A but probably would not have won either Championship. 2022- Arguably the best of the best. They were clearly the best 1A team and I honestly think they could have been a strong contender to win 2A and 3A and judging by their Corbin and CovCath scores they could compete with most of the "big boy" class' top teams as well. 2021- LCA got them for their lone loss but they beat 3A Champ Belfry. Belfry didn't have Mr. Football that game, but I still feel confident Pikeville would have won 3A. That was arguably the best LCA team that finished runner-up to an excellent Beechwood team. Pikeville was a little bange dup against LCA.. I think they were close to LCA and Beechwood but 7-14 points behind. Remember LCA also beat 4A Champ Boyle so once again Pikeville was at least competitive with the best of the mid to small schools. 2020- Covid year and down year. That was the bridge from there previous run. Only competitive in 1A. 2019- The peak of their previous talent pool surge. Undefeated and shocked 3A Champ Belfry with an upset. Their schedule became increasingly difficult after this run. I think Belfry and Pikeville were even (3A was not strong). Somerset won the 2A title.. I think Pikeville could have went toe to toe. 4A probably was out of reach with JC and Boyle both being excellent that year. 2018- Lost to Beechwood in 1A Final. Lost decidedly to Belfry. Very good 1A team and could have competed in 2A, but no bigger class beyond. 2016/2017- Only competitive in 1A. Bridge rebuild years from previous run, talent pool was shallow and played lots of youth. 2015- Peak of talent pool crop. Won 1A title over Beechwood. This was the re-emergence of the Pikeville program. This set the climb of what became bigger and better. They were the best 1A Team but probably would not have competed in any other class except 2A where Mayfield would have probably been better. 3A Champ Belfry crushed them. 2013/2014- These were the teams that were building to the 2015 squad. Good 1A teams but nothing else.

I will be shocked if the hire is not internal and if the hire isn't something that Haywood had already started having discussions and actions about even if there was no imminent timeline.

Coach Charles leaves massive shoes to fill, but Watkins has proven he is one of the best tactical coaching minds in the State of KY from an Offensive perspective at least. The best testament to Charles and the LCA administration is they have truly built a "program". The staff at LCA is very good so Watkins should be in an advantageous spot. I predict there is little falloff if any.

I also have to smile thinking about Jim Matney, Ty Scroggins, and Ivan McGlone asking him what took so long and that they have been waiting to get a pickup game started to match wits with him again!

We lost a rare gem today. My heart breaks for his family, his friends, his staff, his players, and his community. Haywood was an icon in the State. Probably less than .1% of KY residents could pinpoint within a 100 miles on a map where Belfry would be if Haywood never existed, but because of his giant legacy people know where an unincorporated town in rural Appalachia is not only in the Bluegrass but throughout the country. As a football coach his legacy will be achieving monumental heights with so very little. Rural county schools in Appalachia are not meant to be sustainable powerhouses, Haywood won 8 titles and reached Semi-Finals and State Finals that are too many to count despite isolation, unstable mining economies, and a sprawling School District that used to take nearly an hour to get from some edges to the other on winding one lane roads. 491 wins… most in KY history.. among the most in America… 491 wins. Yet the most impressive stat is that for each of those wins you can probably double it with people he brought to Jesus. For each of those wins you can multiple it by five or six times the number of players he made better men with his coaching and life lessons. For each of those wins you can multiply it by 10 or 12 times the people he impacted positively. Coaches he helped, parents he guided, leaders he developed, strangers he made welcome. A lot of people are hurting right now, but what is so beautiful about the life Philip Haywood led is that all those people hurting know that the legacy he left has impacted generations and he would not rather be anywhere more than the place he is now. There is no pain there, but there is a crowd gathered ready to greet him. Thank you Philip Haywood for being who you were!