October 5, 201114 yr But, if Obama wins then both Bush & Christie are making the right move. I believe the arduous task of unseating an incumbent is being greatly devalued in this thread. I agree.
October 5, 201114 yr But, if Obama wins then both Bush & Christie are making the right move. I believe the arduous task of unseating an incumbent is being greatly devalued in this thread. Not sure I agree on your first sentence. If Obama wins in 2012, that means the 2016 Republican field will be loaded with Christie, Bush, Rubio, Jindal & whoever. Then you have a more difficult (IMO) general election opponent in Hillary. 2012 would have given Christie a much weaker primary & more vulnerable general election opponent than will 2016. I agree with your second statement about incumbency.
October 5, 201114 yr I hope Obama wins. I'd like to see him given more time to attempt to fix what is wrong.
October 5, 201114 yr Not sure I agree on your first sentence. If Obama wins in 2012, that means the 2016 Republican field will be loaded with Christie, Bush, Rubio, Jindal & whoever. Then you have a more difficult (IMO) general election opponent in Hillary. 2012 would have given Christie a much weaker primary & more vulnerable general election opponent than will 2016. I agree with your second statement about incumbency. I don't see how you agree with my statement about incumbency but say this: 2012 would have given Christie a much weaker primary & more vulnerable general election opponent than will 2016. I think unseating an incumbent will be much, much more difficult than beating Hill Dawg or whomever else the Democrats run. Though I would agree that the primary is weaker now than it will be in 2016 if Obama is re-elected. But winning the primary doesn't make you the POTUS and I'd much prefer to not run against an incumbent in the general election. As I said, that is an arduous task...
October 6, 201114 yr If Obama wins in 2012 it's almost a certainty that 2016 goes to the Republican nominee, unless the country is infinitely better off(Hopefully that's the case). Now that Marco Rubio is saying he doesn't want to be the VP it's making Obama even more difficult to beat. 2016 could be the strongest Republican primary ever. Christie/Rubio/Bush and I'm sure many many others.
October 6, 201114 yr I don't see how you agree with my statement about incumbency but say this: 2012 would have given Christie a much weaker primary & more vulnerable general election opponent than will 2016. I think unseating an incumbent will be much, much more difficult than beating Hill Dawg or whomever else the Democrats run. Though I would agree that the primary is weaker now than it will be in 2016 if Obama is re-elected. But winning the primary doesn't make you the POTUS and I'd much prefer to not run against an incumbent in the general election. As I said, that is an arduous task... Generally speaking, I do agree that oval office incumbency is an arduous task to overcome. GWB 2004 was tougher to beat than GWB 2000. Same with Clinton in 1996 v. 1992. Same with Reagan in 1984 vs. 1980. But there are exceptions. GHWB was weaker in 1992 than 1988. Carter was weaker in 1980 than he was in 1976. And I think Obama in 2012 is much weaker than Obama in 2008 & I think Hillary in 2016 will be tougher than Obama 2012. I think the polls show that America doesn't want Obama. In the polls, a generic Republican beats Obama by about 4 percentage points. But when you put a specific candidate in place of the generic one, only Romney edges Obama...and that's only in some polls & it's by about 1-2%. Oval office incumbency is almost always strong, but I just think it's going to be weaker in 2012 than in previous years. It's still formidable, but just not as formidable as in the past.
October 6, 201114 yr If Obama wins in 2012 it's almost a certainty that 2016 goes to the Republican nominee, unless the country is infinitely better off(Hopefully that's the case). Now that Marco Rubio is saying he doesn't want to be the VP it's making Obama even more difficult to beat. 2016 could be the strongest Republican primary ever. Christie/Rubio/Bush and I'm sure many many others. That's kind of like being the tallest midget...
October 6, 201114 yr If Obama wins in 2012 it's almost a certainty that 2016 goes to the Republican nominee, unless the country is infinitely better off(Hopefully that's the case). Now that Marco Rubio is saying he doesn't want to be the VP it's making Obama even more difficult to beat. 2016 could be the strongest Republican primary ever. Christie/Rubio/Bush and I'm sure many many others. I haven't heard that about Rubio. When did he say this?
October 6, 201114 yr I haven't heard that about Rubio. When did he say this? http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/i-am-not-going-to-be-the-vp-nominee/ Who knows what he would really do though?
October 6, 201114 yr http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/i-am-not-going-to-be-the-vp-nominee/ Who knows what he would really do though? Thanks! :thumb: I think he takes it if offered, but who knows?
October 11, 201114 yr Gov Christie will endorse Mitt Romney. Not a shocker. Other options are worse. JMO.
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