July 21, 201115 yr For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP's monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race. Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%. Obama's approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he's doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks. Republicans dislike him at this point to a greater extent than Democrats like him and that will be a problem for him moving forward if it persists. Romney takes advantage of those 2 points of weakness for Obama. He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37. And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama. An extremely wide electability gap has developed between Romney and all the rest of the Republican candidates. Everyone else we tested trails Obama by at least as much as John McCain's 2008 margin of defeat and in most cases more. Obama's up 7 on Michele Bachmann at 48-41, 9 against Tim Pawlenty at 48-39, 12 versus Herman Cain at 48-36, and as usual has his largest lead in a match up with Sarah Palin at 53-37. Obama in perilous shape Thoughts?
July 21, 201115 yr Author In the Obama/Romney head to head 21% of undecideds approve of Obama and 61% disapprove. If you allocate them based on their approval/disapprove of Obama, Romney would lead 52-48.
July 21, 201115 yr Who is the last POTUS to win re-election coming off of a terrible economy? I have no recollection as to the state of our economy when President Bush was re-elected in 2004.
July 21, 201115 yr Who is the last POTUS to win re-election coming off of a terrible economy? I have no recollection as to the state of our economy when President Bush was re-elected in 2004.The economy wasn't in great shape, but much of that had to do with the aftermath of 9/11. One of the primary issues at that time was Iraq.
July 21, 201115 yr Waaaaay early but I read an article earlier today that said no president since FDR has been re-elected with unemployment over 7.2%. Currently over 9%. That and gas has more than doubled since Obama took office. Article said those two numbers are concrete numbers that voters understand. I still am not convinced the Republicans have a candidate that can attract the voters.
July 21, 201115 yr In a lot of polls I've seen, a "generic" Republican beats Obama in about all of them. Problem is, when you put an actual Republican up against Obama, only one of them (Romney) is anywhere in the ball park of beating him. Seems to me that as of right now, in July 2011, Americans would prefer a Republican President over the current White House occupant. It's just that they/we don't like the current pool of Republican candidates. I'm sticking with my long-time prediction that Obama wins re-election.
July 22, 201115 yr A Republican who is not far right can win the next election. I'm not sure if we can say the same for a far right R.
July 22, 201115 yr A Republican who is not far right can win the next election. I'm not sure if we can say the same for a far right R. Where would you categorize Huckabee & Chris Christie?
July 22, 201115 yr A Republican who is not far right can win the next election. I'm not sure if we can say the same for a far right R. But can he win the nomination? And if he does, will he do it by moving to the right during his campaign as McCain did? That will then hurt him in the general election.
July 22, 201115 yr But can he win the nomination? And if he does, will he do it by moving to the right during his campaign as McCain did? That will then hurt him in the general election. Romney is the only Republican running (right now) who is considered as a moderate. The rest are basically TPers or staunch conservatives. Right now, I think those others--Bachmann, Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain, even Gingrich--are splitting votes with themselves & Mitt is receiving the benefit. Not to mention that none of the aforementioned candidates generate much excitement. I am a strong conservative & none of them impress me much. Plus, there are some Republicans who so desperately want Obama out of office that they'll throw their hat into the Romney ring because he's the only viable contender to upend Obama right now.
July 22, 201115 yr I think Romney is the only Republican that has a chance to beat Obama and I think it is a long shot that Romney wins the nomination. The right wing/tea party people will find a candidate to rally behind and that person will win the Republican nomination. Romney's only hope is that things fall perfectly, several right side/tea party candidates stay viable in the race till the end splitting votes and giving Romney a chance to get the nomination. If Romney can win the nomination, then it becomes a get out the right wing vote race for Romney. He will have to work hard to get those right wingers motivated to vote in the general election. The venom for Obama may help some there. The flip side of this budget deal is that something will get done (it has to, there is no alternative) and then Obama will be able to hang his hat on that as a positive despite his floundering and lack of leadership on this issue. If the economy next year in the fall is better than it is now, Obama will be tough to beat even by a moderate Republican like Romney. I tend to agree with RP and expect Obama to win re-election.
July 22, 201115 yr If the economy continues where it's at or gets worse, will there come a time when someone (Hillary?) decides to take the president on for the party nomination? This is an attractive bunch of R's to run against. Might not be in 2016.
July 22, 201115 yr If the economy next year in the fall is better than it is now, Obama will be tough to beat even by a moderate Republican like Romney. This is an excellent point. It's hard to see the economy getting a great deal worse, though I guess that's not out of the realm of possibility. Any kind of improvement, even the slightest uptick, will be a talking point for Obama & he will be the primary benefactor.
July 22, 201115 yr If the economy continues where it's at or gets worse, will there come a time when someone (Hillary?) decides to take the president on for the party nomination? This is an attractive bunch of R's to run against. Might not be in 2016. I think Obama will have the same advantage in 2012 that Bush had in 2004--no primary competition & therefore he can stockpile the campaign contributions & direct all their use for the general election.
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