I'm hesitating from posting what the GFS and Euro are showing because they have been waffling back and forth on this possible event. One time they show a crippling snow accumulation. Then all rain. Then rain/sleet/ice/snow. But the GFS Ensemble is showing signals of accumulating snow next weekend. I will try to post a more detailed forecast soon.

 

 

This is my first in-depth examination of a potential system that might provide Kentucky with the biggest snowfall this winter. The accumulation total and potential snowfall locations are uncertain because there are still many discrepancies between the models.

First, on Friday morning, there will be a chance of arctic air entering our region. The mid-20s will be the starting point for temperatures, which will largely remain there until Friday night.  On Friday night, we'll witness them drop into their mid-teens. The temperature on Saturday will drop to the single digits as the arctic air gets deeper. On Saturday night, the temperature will rise into the mid-20s.

An upper-level low off the coast of California is crucial to the potential snowstorm. This is where the models differ from one another. The Arctic air is bringing warm Gulf moisture during the day on Friday, which is why the Euro has this low phase. Root for this model to see potential larger snow accumulations.

In the event that this happens, snowfall will begin on Friday night and last for the majority of Saturday. Those on the northern edge are another thing to be wary of. Higher totals for your area could result from this event moving northward. 

If the track does shift northward, then some in Kentucky could see an ice storm. 

 

The GFS, on the other hand, shows a glancing blow for Kentucky, with less upper-level low phasing and only snow accumulation in eastern Kentucky. This is due to the fact that, unlike the Euro, this model does not phase the upper-level low. It is demonstrating that some, but not much, moisture is being introduced into the system.

I'm watching this closely and will post updates as we get closer. 

 

First I’m showing the maps from the Euro.

 

 

Upper-level moisture showing the phasing. You need moisture at this level for snow. 

 

 

 

This is what the Euro is showing for possible 24-hour snow accumulations. I post this map as an illustration of what we could see. Don't take this as my call for snow just yet.

 

 

This is what the GFS is showing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NWS hourly forecast for snow for my area has doubled in the last 6 hours. Hourly forecast is up over 8" now. Of course this will likely change several times this week.

48 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

NWS hourly forecast for snow for my area has doubled in the last 6 hours. Hourly forecast is up over 8" now. Of course this will likely change several times this week.

That would go with what the Euro is showing.

This is what the Weather Prediction Center just issued.

 

This one has been all over the place. In a couple days, my app has shown anywhere from 0-12 inches. Started at 12 over the weekend, then dropped to 0 yesterday, and now predicting 4. Sounds like we won't know for sure until it happens.

The one model that has been consistent in the last couple of runs is the euro.  It has been showing Kentucky receiving a good amount of snow. Even though the GFS is the one that really has been an outlier.  The GEFS is showing a good chance of snow for Kentucky. 

Confidence is growing in this possible winter storm.

I received this from the NWS-Louisville office.

 

I just checked the 18z run of the GFS. It is back to showing snow coming into Kentucky. I'm going to wait and see a couple more runs to see if it stays consistent before I trust it. 

@nWo what do you think, late Wednesday or early Thursday runs will be pretty safe to trust and plan for?

New stuff coming in within the last hour.   Between @nWo and 2-3 others I follow? When all are saying the same thing? ?

We are about to get the business with this one. 

3 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

@nWo what do you think, late Wednesday or early Thursday runs will be pretty safe to trust and plan for?

Starting around 72 hours before a weather event is when you can start to getting a good read.

I have checked the 00z GFS; it has moved more towards the Euro. I still want to see another run or two to see if this trend continues. 

This is what the GEFS Ensemble is showing. It has 21 different members; I think I had posted 51 earlier. They all run a different scenario. Then it averages out the runs to produce the following maps. This is the model I started using last week to see if there was a signal for possible snow accumulation. 

It shows the chance in percentage of more than 1 inch accumulation. The second one shows the percentage chance of more than 4 inches of accumulation. Going by this, the Ohio Valley has a good chance of snow accumulation. Some a good chance of over 4 inches.

I'll post an update after the 12z (7 am EST) run is released.

 

 

 

 

I just received these from the NWS-Louisville office. Confidence is now high that an impactful winter storm will affect our area.